TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ BAL

Camden Yards is live · 1.21×

TB @ BAL

Camden Yards · 1:35p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind 10 mph slight_out 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

1:35p

+5 ↑

2:35p

+6 ↑

3:35p

+7 ↑

4:35p

+7 ↑

5:35p

conditions build late — the 4:35p window peaks +7

Best of game Pete Alonso conv 37 · vs Martinez ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 17 · vs Baz → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Nick Martinez RHP · TB

leak 66

1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.39 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Alonso +290 C+ ●●●●●

2 Colton Cowser +500 D ●●●●○

3 Coby Mayo +350 C ●●●○○

FADE Shane Baz RHP · BAL

leak 22

0.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.56 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero +290 C ●●●○○

2 Yandy Diaz +575 D ●○○○○

3 Taylor Walls +950 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: Match 28.8% · 14D pace 46.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ vs Martinez +290 0.231 · 94.0 · 10.1% 46.2% 28.8% F B O C+ 64

· BAL Coby Mayo COOL vs Martinez +350 0.228 · 92.2 · 9.6% 18.2% 18.5% F B O C 55

· TB Junior Caminero COOL vs Baz +290 0.255 · 92.9 · 9.6% 15.4% 18.2% F B O C 58

· BAL Samuel Basallo vs Martinez Edge +350 0.212 · 91.2 · 9.9% 0.0% 25.4% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Martinez Edge +500 0.139 · 87.3 · 8.9% 42.9% 15.0% F B O D 48

· BAL Gunnar Henderson vs Martinez Edge +400 0.175 · 89.9 · 7.3% 15.4% 11.4% F B O D 47

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs Martinez Edge +750 0.131 · 87.9 · 5.5% 9.1% 7.8% F B O D 37

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Baz +575 0.163 · 90.8 · 7.0% 0.0% 16.8% F B O D 39

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Baz Edge +950 0.076 · 85.6 · 3.8% 9.1% 6.8% F B O D 27

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Baz Edge +500 0.148 · 87.7 · 5.3% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 37

· BAL Jackson Holliday COOL vs Martinez Edge +700 0.129 · 87.4 · 7.1% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 38

· TB Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Baz Edge +425 0.137 · 91.0 · 8.3% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 40

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Baz — 0.101 · 85.3 · 3.9% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 30

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs Baz Edge +750 0.113 · 86.4 · 5.1% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 32

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Baz Edge — 0.055 · 83.9 · — 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 17

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Shane Baz — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Nick Martinez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Alonso Mayo Cowser Henderson

Legend

attack side — vs Martinez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Pete Alonso +290 · 64

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.01× Wind 10 mph slight_out 81°F open

↑

10 mph · slight_out

76°F

1:35p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

78°F

2:35p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

80°F

3:35p

↑

12 mph · slight_out

82°F

4:35p · peak

↑

11 mph · slight_out

81°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.21× 81°F, wind 10 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shane Baz · RHP 0.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.56 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero 58 C +290 COOL 16 0.255 92.9 9.6% 40.0%vs RHP 413 25.4% 15.4% 18.2% 43

2 Jonathan Aranda 40 D +425 COOL 126 0.137 91.0 8.3% 15.8%vs RHP 386 10.8% 0.0% 7.8% 37

3 Yandy Diaz 39 D +575 · 132 0.163 90.8 7.0% 25.5%vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 16.8% 51

4 Cedric Mullins 37 D +500 WARM 153 0.148 87.7 5.3% 18.1%vs RHP 389 11.8% 0.0% 8.7% 32

5 Richie Palacios 32 D +750 COOL 185 0.113 86.4 5.1% 11.9%vs RHP 398 4.2% 0.0% 7.1% 31

6 Nick Fortes 30 D — COOL 195 0.101 85.3 3.9% 14.3%vs RHP 396 4.4% 0.0% 7.4% 9

7 Taylor Walls 27 D +950 COOL 206 0.076 85.6 3.8% 2.6%vs RHP 383 1.0% 9.1% 6.8% 36

8 Chandler Simpson 17 D — COOL 209 0.055 83.9 — 2.5%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 50

vs Nick Martinez · RHP 1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.39 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 64 C+ +290 WARM 7 0.231 94.0 10.1% 30.3%vs RHP 402 20.9% 46.2% 28.8% 41

2 Coby Mayo 55 C +350 COOL 23 0.228 92.2 9.6% 10.5%vs RHP 411 16.5% 18.2% 18.5% 29

3 Samuel Basallo 54 C +350 WARM 28 0.212 91.2 9.9% 28.6%vs RHP 399 16.0% 0.0% 25.4% 8

4 Colton Cowser 48 D +500 WARM 65 0.139 87.3 8.9% 18.9%vs RHP 417 15.2% 42.9% 15.0% 19

5 Gunnar Henderson 47 D +400 WARM 68 0.175 89.9 7.3% 17.7%vs RHP 391 15.0% 15.4% 11.4% 39

6 Jackson Holliday 38 D +700 COOL 143 0.129 87.4 7.1% 16.1%vs RHP 388 4.1% 0.0% 8.1% 47

7 Leody Taveras 37 D +750 COOL 156 0.131 87.9 5.5% 13.7%vs RHP 405 4.4% 9.1% 7.8% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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