TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ MIA

Suppressed air · 0.93×

WSH @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 1:40p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.84× Wind 13 mph in 93°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-16 ↑

1:40p

-17 ↑

2:40p

-18 ↑

3:40p

-18 ↑

4:40p

-17 ↑

5:40p

best window is early — 1:40p at -16

Best of game Javier Sanoja conv 16 · vs Kent ⟷ Keibert Ruiz conv 11 · vs Junk → edge: Heriberto Hernández

ATTACK Jackson Kent LHP

leak 87

1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.64 · leakiest side of this game

1 Javier Sanoja +750 D ●●○○○

2 Heriberto Hernández +475 D ●●○○○

3 Jakob Marsee — D ●●○○○

FADE Janson Junk RHP · MIA

leak 82

1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.07 · stingy — thin edge

1 Keibert Ruiz +750 D ●●○○○

2 Jacob Young — D ●○○○○

3 Dylan Crews +625 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Heriberto Hernández: Match 28.4% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· — Javier Sanoja vs Kent Edge +750 0.144 · 86.5 · 3.9% 22.2% 10.0% F B O D 32

· — Heriberto Hernández ✶ vs Kent Edge +475 0.225 · 91.6 · 9.1% 0.0% 28.4% F B O D 45

· — Jakob Marsee vs Kent — 0.114 · 87.2 · 4.8% 18.2% 8.0% F B O D 31

· — Owen Caissie COOL vs Kent — 0.201 · 91.2 · 9.8% 10.0% 13.7% F B O D 46

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Junk Edge +750 0.165 · 88.3 · 5.8% 14.3% 8.2% F B O D 36

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Junk — 0.148 · 88.3 · 6.5% 10.0% 7.7% F B O D 34

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Junk +625 0.145 · 90.8 · 8.1% 10.0% 7.4% F B O D 39

· WSH Cj Abrams COOL vs Junk Edge +425 0.250 · 89.5 · 8.3% 0.0% 15.8% F B O D 48

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Junk Edge +525 0.157 · 88.3 · 7.5% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 36

· — Xavier Edwards COOL vs Kent Edge — 0.098 · 87.1 · 4.7% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 26

· — Otto Lopez COOL vs Kent Edge +850 0.138 · 89.1 · 6.3% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 33

· WSH Nasim Nunez vs Junk Edge — 0.035 · 85.2 · 1.4% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 15

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Janson Junk — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Jackson Kent — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Hernández Sanoja Marsee

Legend

attack side — vs Kent fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 1:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.84× Wind 13 mph in 93°F retractable

-16

↑

13 mph · in

88°F

1:40p · peak

-17

↑

14 mph · in

88°F

2:40p

-18

↑

15 mph · in

86°F

3:40p

-18

↑

15 mph · in

85°F

4:40p

-17

↑

16 mph · in

83°F

5:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.93× 93°F, wind 13 mph SE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Janson Junk · RHP 1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.07 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cj Abrams 48 D +425 COOL 61 0.250 89.5 8.3% 29.9%vs RHP 395 33.3% 0.0% 15.8% 25

2 Dylan Crews 39 D +625 · 138 0.145 90.8 8.1% 11.9%vs RHP 407 15.6% 10.0% 7.4% 31

3 Daylen Lile 36 D +525 · 163 0.157 88.3 7.5% 12.3%vs RHP 400 9.5% 0.0% 8.2% 36

4 Keibert Ruiz 36 D +750 COOL 164 0.165 88.3 5.8% 8.9%vs RHP 378 9.8% 14.3% 8.2% 22

5 Jacob Young 34 D — COOL 174 0.148 88.3 6.5% 13.0%vs RHP 399 7.7% 10.0% 7.7% 30

6 Nasim Nunez 15 D — WARM 210 0.035 85.2 1.4% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 30

vs Jackson Kent · LHP 1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.64 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Owen Caissie 46 D — COOL 77 0.201 91.2 9.8% 22.0% 398 14.1% 10.0% 13.7% 18

2 Heriberto Hernández ✶ 45 D +475 WARM 86 0.225 91.6 9.1% 45.0%vs LHP 407 0.0% 0.0% 28.4% 23

3 Otto Lopez 33 D +850 COOL 179 0.138 89.1 6.3% 7.4%vs LHP 402 6.4% 0.0% 6.8% 44

4 Javier Sanoja 32 D +750 WARM 183 0.144 86.5 3.9% 16.7%vs LHP 378 7.1% 22.2% 10.0% 33

5 Jakob Marsee 31 D — · 194 0.114 87.2 4.8% 11.1%vs LHP 381 7.8% 18.2% 8.0% 35

6 Xavier Edwards 26 D — COOL 207 0.098 87.1 4.7% 21.1%vs LHP 396 4.0% 0.0% 7.9% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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