TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ SEA

Neutral air · 1.00×

CHC @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 4:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 5 mph out 68°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+5 ↑

1:10p

+5 ↑

2:10p

+4 ↑

3:10p

+1 ↑

4:10p

-1 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at +5

Best of game Randy Arozarena conv 27 · vs Imanaga ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 35 · vs Miller → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Shota Imanaga LHP · CHC

leak 93

1.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.76 · leakiest side of this game

1 Randy Arozarena +425 C ●●●●○

2 Cal Raleigh +305 C ●●●○○

3 Dominic Canzone +500 C ●●○○○

FADE Bryce Miller RHP · SEA

leak 65

1.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +320 C+ ●●●●●

2 Seiya Suzuki +475 C ●●●●○

3 Alex Bregman +750 D ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 28.3% · 14D pace 41.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Miller Edge +320 0.275 · 90.2 · 9.5% 41.7% 28.3% F B O C+ 65

· SEA Randy Arozarena COOL vs Imanaga Edge +425 0.187 · 90.7 · 8.7% 33.3% 21.3% F B O C 54

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Miller +475 0.211 · 88.2 · 8.8% 27.3% 26.2% F B O C 55

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Miller Edge +500 0.197 · 89.3 · 9.1% 20.0% 18.6% F B O C 52

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Imanaga Edge +305 0.146 · 89.3 · 10.9% 18.2% 18.1% F B O C 50

· SEA Dominic Canzone COOL vs Imanaga +500 0.227 · 91.0 · 10.9% 8.3% 19.7% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Miller +750 0.165 · 88.4 · 6.2% 33.3% 19.8% F B O D 46

· CHC Michael Busch vs Miller Edge +500 0.151 · 88.2 · 8.2% 18.2% 11.3% F B O D 45

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Imanaga Edge +390 0.160 · 90.0 · 9.5% 8.3% 11.6% F B O D 49

· SEA Cole Young COOL vs Imanaga +850 0.137 · 88.7 · 6.7% 9.1% 9.0% F B O D 41

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Imanaga +575 0.102 · 87.6 · 6.8% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 36

· CHC Nico Hoerner COOL vs Miller — 0.099 · 85.9 · 2.9% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 28

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Miller +850 0.110 · 87.2 · 6.2% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Bryce Miller — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Shota Imanaga — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Happ Bregman Busch Canzone Arozarena Raleigh

Legend

attack side — vs Imanaga fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Pete Crow-Armstrong +320 · 65

Randy Arozarena +425 · 54

Seiya Suzuki +475 · 55

Ian Happ +500 · 52

Alex Bregman +750 · 46

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.00× Wind 5 mph out 68°F retractable

↑

5 mph · out

68°F

1:10p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

70°F

2:10p

↑

5 mph · out

70°F

3:10p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

70°F

4:10p

-1

↑

4 mph · cross

70°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.00× 68°F, wind 5 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Bryce Miller · RHP 1.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 65 C+ +320 · 6 0.275 90.2 9.5% 24.5%vs RHP 394 21.5% 41.7% 28.3% 38

2 Seiya Suzuki 55 C +475 WARM 24 0.211 88.2 8.8% 22.7%vs RHP 406 16.8% 27.3% 26.2% 28

3 Ian Happ 52 C +500 COOL 42 0.197 89.3 9.1% 23.7%vs RHP 404 17.3% 20.0% 18.6% 29

4 Alex Bregman 46 D +750 WARM 83 0.165 88.4 6.2% 20.0%vs RHP 389 11.8% 33.3% 19.8% 40

5 Michael Busch 45 D +500 · 95 0.151 88.2 8.2% 12.8%vs RHP 403 13.1% 18.2% 11.3% 32

6 Carson Kelly 35 D +850 COOL 170 0.110 87.2 6.2% 6.5%vs RHP 413 6.8% 0.0% 7.7% 20

7 Nico Hoerner 28 D — COOL 202 0.099 85.9 2.9% 7.6%vs RHP 381 5.5% 0.0% 7.8% 42

vs Shota Imanaga · LHP 1.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.76 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 57 C +500 COOL 19 0.227 91.0 10.9% 36.4%vs LHP 402 15.2% 8.3% 19.7% 35

2 Randy Arozarena 54 C +425 COOL 32 0.187 90.7 8.7% 17.4%vs LHP 387 14.4% 33.3% 21.3% 36

3 Cal Raleigh 50 C +305 WARM 51 0.146 89.3 10.9% 25.0%vs LHP 391 13.6% 18.2% 18.1% 24

4 Julio Rodríguez 49 D +390 WARM 57 0.160 90.0 9.5% 23.7%vs LHP 405 16.0% 8.3% 11.6% 32

5 Cole Young 41 D +850 COOL 121 0.137 88.7 6.7% 11.8%vs LHP 385 11.3% 9.1% 9.0% 34

6 Josh Naylor 36 D +575 COOL 161 0.102 87.6 6.8% 11.1%vs LHP 392 6.5% 0.0% 8.6% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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