TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ NYY

Yankee Stadium is live · 1.26×

TOR @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 1:35p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 10 mph slight_out 78°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

1:35p

+10 ↑

2:35p

+11 ↑

3:35p

+12 ↑

4:35p

+12 ↑

5:35p

conditions build late — the 4:35p window peaks +12

Best of game Trent Grisham conv 29 · vs Soriano ⟷ Kazuma Okamoto conv 16 · vs Rodón → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK José Soriano RHP · LAA

leak 87

0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.16 · leakiest side of this game

1 Trent Grisham +425 C ●●●●○

2 Ben Rice +425 C+ ●●●○○

3 Paul Goldschmidt — C ●○○○○

FADE Carlos Rodón LHP · NYY

leak 10

0.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kazuma Okamoto +370 C ●●●○○

2 Nathan Lukes — D ●●○○○

3 Andres Gimenez — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: Match 26.5% · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Trent Grisham vs Soriano Edge +425 0.195 · 90.8 · 8.8% 33.3% 24.5% F B O C 55

· — Ben Rice ✶ vs Soriano Edge +425 0.277 · 92.2 · 10.9% 16.7% 26.5% F B O C+ 66

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto vs Rodón Edge +370 0.208 · 90.5 · 9.3% 16.7% 16.0% F B O C 55

· — Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Soriano — 0.200 · 86.5 · 9.1% 0.0% 15.5% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Rodón — 0.113 · 86.9 · 3.6% 12.5% 11.0% F B O D 35

· — Jazz Chisholm vs Soriano Edge — 0.171 · 90.8 · 8.5% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 45

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Rodón — 0.116 · 85.5 · 4.6% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 32

· TOR Jesús Sánchez COOL vs Rodón — 0.164 · 90.8 · 8.8% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 45

· — Jose Caballero vs Soriano +950 0.143 · 84.0 · 5.9% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 36

· — Austin Wells COOL vs Soriano Edge +575 0.114 · 89.0 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 39

· TOR George Springer COOL vs Rodón Edge +475 0.150 · 88.0 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 41

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Rodón Edge +850 0.120 · 84.4 · 3.9% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 33

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero COOL vs Rodón Edge — 0.092 · 90.2 · 6.7% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 33

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Rodón Edge — 0.109 · 85.6 · 4.8% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Carlos Rodón — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for José Soriano — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Rice Grisham

Legend

attack side — vs Soriano fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Trent Grisham +425 · 55

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 10 mph slight_out 78°F open

↑

10 mph · slight_out

75°F

1:35p

+10

↑

10 mph · out

77°F

2:35p

+11

↑

10 mph · out

79°F

3:35p

+12

↑

10 mph · out

80°F

4:35p · peak

+12

↑

10 mph · out

80°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.26× 78°F, wind 10 mph SSW (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Carlos Rodón · LHP 0.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 55 C +370 · 27 0.208 90.5 9.3% 22.6%vs LHP 400 17.6% 16.7% 16.0% 33

2 Jesús Sánchez 45 D — COOL 93 0.164 90.8 8.8% 0.0%vs LHP 398 10.0% 0.0% 9.6% 10

3 George Springer 41 D +475 COOL 122 0.150 88.0 6.6% 8.3%vs LHP 393 10.3% 0.0% 7.7% 27

4 Nathan Lukes 35 D — WARM 168 0.113 86.9 3.6% 11.8% 381 7.0% 12.5% 11.0% 35

5 Ernie Clement 33 D +850 COOL 178 0.120 84.4 3.9% 10.0%vs LHP 376 7.4% 0.0% 7.0% 39

6 Vladimir Guerrero 33 D — COOL 180 0.092 90.2 6.7% 8.3%vs LHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 27

7 Myles Straw 33 D — COOL 181 0.109 85.6 4.8% 5.7%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 27

8 Andres Gimenez 32 D — COOL 182 0.116 85.5 4.6% 13.3%vs LHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 30

vs José Soriano · RHP 0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.16 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 66 C+ +425 WARM 5 0.277 92.2 10.9% 30.9%vs RHP 394 24.6% 16.7% 26.5% 31

2 Trent Grisham 55 C +425 WARM 25 0.195 90.8 8.8% 20.9%vs RHP 386 13.6% 33.3% 24.5% 34

3 Paul Goldschmidt 51 C — COOL 49 0.200 86.5 9.1% 18.4%vs RHP 390 15.7% 0.0% 15.5% 2

4 Jazz Chisholm 45 D — · 88 0.171 90.8 8.5% 22.4%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 28

5 Austin Wells 39 D +575 COOL 136 0.114 89.0 7.2% 13.6%vs RHP 387 8.9% 0.0% 8.9% 23

6 Jose Caballero 36 D +950 WARM 160 0.143 84.0 5.9% 20.5%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 11

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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