TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ TEX

Globe Life Field is live · 1.34×

LAA @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 2:35p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.03× Wind 5 mph out 103°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+9 ↑

1:35p

+8 ↑

2:35p

+8 ↑

3:35p

+8 ↑

4:35p

+10 ↑

5:35p

conditions build late — the 5:35p window peaks +10

Best of game Jake Burger conv 18 · vs Kikuchi ⟷ Josh Lowe conv 16 · vs Quantrill → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Yusei Kikuchi LHP · LAA

leak 63

0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jake Burger — C ●●●○○

2 Joc Pederson — C ●●●○○

3 Corey Seager — C ●●○○○

FADE Cal Quantrill RHP · TEX

leak 25

1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.32 · stingy — thin edge

1 Josh Lowe — D ●●○○○

2 Mike Trout — C ●●○○○

3 Zach Neto — C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: Match 20.2% · 14D pace 12.5%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Jake Burger COOL vs Kikuchi Edge — 0.181 · 89.8 · 9.4% 16.7% 19.9% F B O C 52

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Kikuchi — 0.242 · 92.2 · 9.5% 12.5% 20.2% F B O C 58

· TEX Corey Seager vs Kikuchi — 0.191 · 91.5 · 11.2% 16.7% 14.1% F B O C 54

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Quantrill — 0.193 · 89.8 · 11.0% 7.7% 12.4% F B O C 53

· LAA Zach Neto COOL vs Quantrill — 0.195 · 89.4 · 9.3% 7.7% 11.8% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· LAA Josh Lowe COOL vs Quantrill Edge — 0.150 · 89.0 · 8.0% 15.4% 16.7% F B O D 46

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Kikuchi Edge — 0.200 · 89.4 · 7.8% 7.7% 12.7% F B O D 49

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Kikuchi — 0.158 · 92.1 · 9.2% 7.7% 10.3% F B O D 46

· TEX Ezequiel Duran COOL vs Kikuchi Edge — 0.169 · 88.7 · 7.0% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 43

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Quantrill — 0.125 · 87.8 · 6.8% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 39

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Quantrill — 0.123 · 87.4 · 7.2% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 39

· TEX Evan Carter vs Kikuchi — 0.126 · 87.9 · 6.7% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 37

· TEX Nicky Lopez vs Kikuchi — 0.040 · 84.4 · — 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 20

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Cal Quantrill — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Yusei Kikuchi — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lowe Pederson Seager Burger

Legend

attack side — vs Kikuchi fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 1:35p · roof retractable

Park 1.03× Wind 5 mph out 103°F retractable

↑

5 mph · out

98°F

1:35p

↑

5 mph · out

101°F

2:35p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

104°F

3:35p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

105°F

4:35p

+10

↑

9 mph · slight_out

103°F

5:35p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.34× 103°F, wind 5 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cal Quantrill · RHP 1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.32 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 53 C — COOL 33 0.193 89.8 11.0% 22.7%vs RHP 409 14.8% 7.7% 12.4% 33

2 Zach Neto 52 C — COOL 44 0.195 89.4 9.3% 17.9%vs RHP 404 15.4% 7.7% 11.8% 40

3 Josh Lowe 46 D — COOL 74 0.150 89.0 8.0% 17.5%vs RHP 392 10.3% 15.4% 16.7% 22

4 Vaughn Grissom 39 D — COOL 137 0.125 87.8 6.8% 17.5%vs RHP 390 7.9% 0.0% 7.9% 28

5 Oswald Peraza 39 D — COOL 139 0.123 87.4 7.2% 8.3%vs RHP 386 5.4% 0.0% 6.9% 12

vs Yusei Kikuchi · LHP 0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 58 C — WARM 17 0.242 92.2 9.5% 24.4% 396 21.3% 12.5% 20.2% 17

2 Corey Seager 54 C — · 31 0.191 91.5 11.2% 21.4%vs LHP 394 17.1% 16.7% 14.1% 37

3 Jake Burger 52 C — COOL 41 0.181 89.8 9.4% 31.8%vs LHP 400 15.5% 16.7% 19.9% 27

4 Wyatt Langford 49 D — COOL 54 0.200 89.4 7.8% 18.2%vs LHP 398 15.6% 7.7% 12.7% 36

5 Brandon Nimmo 46 D — COOL 80 0.158 92.1 9.2% 18.5%vs LHP 403 10.1% 7.7% 10.3% 40

6 Ezequiel Duran 43 D — COOL 107 0.169 88.7 7.0% 10.5%vs LHP 393 11.5% 0.0% 9.6% 35

7 Evan Carter 37 D — · 151 0.126 87.9 6.7% 0.0%vs LHP 374 7.2% 0.0% 6.3% 28

8 Nicky Lopez 20 D — · 208 0.040 84.4 — 0.0%vs LHP 397 1.9% 0.0% 6.3% 17

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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