TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ SD

Petco Park is live · 1.16×

MIN @ SD

Petco Park · 4:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 8 mph cross 94°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

1:10p

-3 ↑

2:10p

-3 ↑

3:10p

-4 ↑

4:10p

-4 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at -3

Best of game Brooks Lee conv 21 · vs Buehler ⟷ Gavin Sheets conv 22 · vs Ober → edge: Kody Clemens

ATTACK Walker Buehler RHP · SD

leak 95

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brooks Lee +750 D ●●●○○

2 Kody Clemens +500 C ●●●○○

3 Josh Bell +525 D ●●○○○

FADE Bailey Ober RHP · MIN

leak 53

1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · stingy — thin edge

1 Gavin Sheets +475 D ●●●○○

2 Jackson Merrill +350 C ●●●○○

3 Ty France +425 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kody Clemens: Match 19.9% · 14D pace 20.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Ober Edge +350 0.171 · 90.7 · 10.5% 25.0% 17.7% F B O C 50

· MIN Kody Clemens ✶ vs Buehler Edge +500 0.230 · 92.4 · 9.8% 20.0% 19.9% F B O C 53

· SD Ty France COOL vs Ober +425 0.223 · 92.2 · 10.0% 16.7% 16.0% F B O C 52

· MIN Byron Buxton COOL vs Buehler +290 0.262 · 90.3 · 11.4% 0.0% 18.3% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· SD Gavin Sheets vs Ober Edge +475 0.181 · 87.5 · 8.4% 22.2% 21.1% F B O D 46

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Buehler Edge +750 0.180 · 87.9 · 5.5% 25.0% 16.2% F B O D 42

· MIN Josh Bell vs Buehler Edge +525 0.171 · 90.0 · 8.9% 16.7% 11.0% F B O D 44

· SD Xander Bogaerts HOT vs Ober +575 0.107 · 88.9 · 7.8% 16.7% 10.0% F B O D 37

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Buehler +850 0.110 · 85.1 · 5.3% 16.7% 8.5% F B O D 31

· SD Manny Machado COOL vs Ober +330 0.194 · 90.8 · 9.8% 8.3% 11.9% F B O D 49

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Ober Edge +700 0.078 · 87.1 · 5.9% 8.3% 6.9% F B O D 30

· SD Fernando Tatis HOT vs Ober — 0.153 · 92.8 · 10.8% 0.0% 13.4% F B O D 41

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Buehler +370 0.175 · 89.8 · 9.6% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 44

· MIN Trevor Larnach COOL vs Buehler Edge +850 0.150 · 87.6 · 7.7% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 37

· MIN Victor Caratini vs Buehler Edge — 0.105 · 89.5 · 7.3% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 31

· SD Freddy Fermin COOL vs Ober +750 0.112 · 87.1 · 6.1% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Walker Buehler — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Bailey Ober — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Clemens Bell Lee France Merrill Sheets Bogaerts

Legend

attack side — vs Buehler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kody Clemens +500 · 53

Gavin Sheets +475 · 46

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.89× Wind 8 mph cross 94°F open

-3

↑

8 mph · cross

92°F

1:10p · peak

-3

↑

8 mph · cross

95°F

2:10p

-3

↑

8 mph · cross

95°F

3:10p

-4

↑

8 mph · cross

94°F

4:10p

-4

↑

8 mph · cross

93°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.16× 94°F, wind 8 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Walker Buehler · RHP 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Byron Buxton 56 C +290 COOL 22 0.262 90.3 11.4% 31.3%vs RHP 402 26.1% 0.0% 18.3% 20

2 Kody Clemens ✶ 53 C +500 WARM 34 0.230 92.4 9.8% 18.6%vs RHP 391 16.9% 20.0% 19.9% 27

3 Royce Lewis 44 D +370 COOL 99 0.175 89.8 9.6% 16.4%vs RHP 400 15.1% 0.0% 11.1% 32

4 Josh Bell 44 D +525 · 100 0.171 90.0 8.9% 20.3%vs RHP 407 11.8% 16.7% 11.0% 37

5 Brooks Lee 42 D +750 WARM 116 0.180 87.9 5.5% 19.0%vs RHP 370 15.3% 25.0% 16.2% 39

6 Trevor Larnach 37 D +850 COOL 155 0.150 87.6 7.7% 15.2%vs RHP 397 9.0% 0.0% 8.3% 28

7 Victor Caratini 31 D — · 191 0.105 89.5 7.3% 16.2%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 13

8 Luke Keaschall 31 D +850 WARM 193 0.110 85.1 5.3% 9.9%vs RHP 374 7.2% 16.7% 8.5% 36

vs Bailey Ober · RHP 1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 52 C +425 COOL 43 0.223 92.2 10.0% 28.0%vs RHP 394 16.2% 16.7% 16.0% 35

2 Jackson Merrill 50 C +350 WARM 52 0.171 90.7 10.5% 19.5%vs RHP 412 15.6% 25.0% 17.7% 29

3 Manny Machado 49 D +330 COOL 56 0.194 90.8 9.8% 27.0%vs RHP 397 17.7% 8.3% 11.9% 38

4 Gavin Sheets 46 D +475 WARM 73 0.181 87.5 8.4% 30.9%vs RHP 395 10.7% 22.2% 21.1% 15

5 Fernando Tatis 41 D — HOT 119 0.153 92.8 10.8% 13.2%vs RHP 414 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 39

6 Xander Bogaerts 37 D +575 HOT 152 0.107 88.9 7.8% 16.7%vs RHP 400 8.3% 16.7% 10.0% 29

7 Freddy Fermin 32 D +750 COOL 187 0.112 87.1 6.1% 6.7%vs RHP 382 2.6% 0.0% 6.2% 17

8 Jake Cronenworth 30 D +700 COOL 196 0.078 87.1 5.9% 9.1%vs RHP 392 2.5% 8.3% 6.9% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

13 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.