TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ COL

Coors Field is live · 1.35×

CLE @ COL

Coors Field · 3:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 4 mph cross 96°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

1:10p

+8 ↑

2:10p

+10 ↑

3:10p

+7 ↑

4:10p

+2 ↑

5:10p

the 3:10p window peaks +10

Best of game Brayan Rocchio conv 10 · vs Sugano ⟷ Mickey Moniak conv 22 · vs Griffin → edge: Mickey Moniak

ATTACK Tomoyuki Sugano RHP · COL

leak 94

2.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.98 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brayan Rocchio +750 D ●○○○○

2 Angel Martinez — D ●○○○○

3 Chase Delauter +350 D ●○○○○

FADE Foster Griffin LHP · WSH

leak 90

1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.62 · stingy — thin edge

1 Mickey Moniak +400 C+ ●●●○○

2 Kyle Karros +500 D ●●●○○

3 Willi Castro +500 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Mickey Moniak: Match 25.4% · 14D pace 18.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Mickey Moniak ✶ COOL vs Griffin +400 0.276 · 89.5 · 9.7% 18.2% 25.4% F B O C+ 62

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· — Kyle Karros vs Griffin Edge +500 0.156 · 89.4 · 8.5% 20.0% 13.7% F B O D 47

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Sugano Edge +750 0.119 · 86.7 · 6.4% 10.0% 9.1% F B O D 42

· — Willi Castro vs Griffin Edge +500 0.155 · 88.0 · 8.7% 8.3% 10.4% F B O D 46

· — Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Griffin +850 0.191 · 84.9 · 6.7% 0.0% 15.3% F B O D 46

· CLE Angel Martinez COOL vs Sugano Edge — 0.184 · 87.3 · 10.0% 0.0% 15.1% F B O D 49

· CLE Chase Delauter COOL vs Sugano Edge +350 0.154 · 91.2 · 9.1% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 48

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Sugano Edge +525 0.132 · 88.1 · 7.9% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 45

· CLE Patrick Bailey vs Sugano Edge — 0.119 · 90.6 · 9.5% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 46

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Sugano Edge +350 0.140 · 89.3 · 7.9% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 43

· — Tj Rumfield vs Griffin +750 0.152 · 83.9 · 6.4% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 40

· — Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Griffin Edge +575 0.120 · 87.2 · 7.5% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 40

· — Troy Johnston vs Griffin — 0.110 · 89.5 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 34

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Sugano Edge +950 0.060 · 83.8 · 2.0% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Tomoyuki Sugano — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Foster Griffin — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Moniak Karros

Legend

attack side — vs Sugano fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 1.04× Wind 4 mph cross 96°F open

↑

4 mph · cross

91°F

1:10p

↑

5 mph · out

99°F

2:10p

+10

↑

6 mph · out

104°F

3:10p · peak

↑

6 mph · slight_out

99°F

4:10p

↑

6 mph · cross

94°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.35× 96°F, wind 4 mph E (cross) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tomoyuki Sugano · RHP 2.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.98 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 49 D — COOL 53 0.184 87.3 10.0% 25.6%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 15.1% 25

2 Chase Delauter 48 D +350 COOL 62 0.154 91.2 9.1% 24.1%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 28

3 Patrick Bailey 46 D — · 82 0.119 90.6 9.5% 14.6%vs RHP 409 6.7% 0.0% 9.4% 21

4 Travis Bazzana 45 D +525 COOL 92 0.132 88.1 7.9% 17.0%vs RHP 396 9.5% 0.0% 9.8% 35

5 Jose Ramirez 43 D +350 COOL 104 0.140 89.3 7.9% 10.4%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 35

6 Brayan Rocchio 42 D +750 WARM 115 0.119 86.7 6.4% 12.1%vs RHP 384 7.4% 10.0% 9.1% 27

7 Steven Kwan 28 D +950 COOL 203 0.060 83.8 2.0% 3.0%vs RHP 372 1.7% 0.0% 7.8% 40

vs Foster Griffin · LHP 1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.62 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mickey Moniak ✶ 62 C+ +400 COOL 10 0.276 89.5 9.7% 20.0%vs LHP 415 18.4% 18.2% 25.4% 29

2 Kyle Karros 47 D +500 WARM 67 0.156 89.4 8.5% 8.0%vs LHP 416 10.5% 20.0% 13.7% 14

3 Jake Mccarthy 46 D +850 COOL 76 0.191 84.9 6.7% 26.7%vs LHP 416 11.1% 0.0% 15.3% 41

4 Willi Castro 46 D +500 WARM 79 0.155 88.0 8.7% 14.3%vs LHP 410 11.1% 8.3% 10.4% 30

5 Tj Rumfield 40 D +750 · 123 0.152 83.9 6.4% 6.9%vs LHP 410 5.6% 0.0% 9.4% 33

6 Ezequiel Tovar 40 D +575 COOL 127 0.120 87.2 7.5% 6.2%vs LHP 408 7.3% 0.0% 7.8% 18

7 Troy Johnston 34 D — WARM 173 0.110 89.5 4.5% 4.5%vs LHP 415 1.1% 0.0% 7.8% 15

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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