TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ MIL

Neutral air · 1.00×

ATL @ MIL

Journey Bank Ballpark · 7:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Jake Bauers conv 26 · vs Mahle ⟷ Matt Olson conv 22 · vs Drohan → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Tyler Mahle RHP · SF

leak 60

1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jake Bauers +500 C+ ●●●●○

2 Christian Yelich +700 D ●●●○○

3 Joey Ortiz — D ●●●○○

FADE Shane Drohan LHP · MIL

leak 3

0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.39 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson +475 C+ ●●●○○

2 Ozzie Albies +625 D ●○○○○

3 Drake Baldwin +575 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: Match 21.3% · 14D pace 23.1%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Jake Bauers vs Mahle Edge +500 0.233 · 92.5 · 10.2% 23.1% 28.5% F B O C+ 60

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Drohan +475 0.277 · 92.7 · 11.4% 23.1% 21.3% F B O C+ 64

· — Jackson Chourio vs Mahle +500 0.186 · 91.9 · 9.9% 7.7% 12.8% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· — Christian Yelich HOT vs Mahle Edge +700 0.141 · 89.0 · 8.7% 22.2% 14.4% F B O D 45

· — Joey Ortiz HOT vs Mahle — 0.130 · 88.5 · 5.7% 20.0% 13.5% F B O D 39

· — Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Mahle Edge +525 0.158 · 92.9 · 9.7% 16.7% 11.2% F B O D 47

· ATL Ozzie Albies COOL vs Drohan Edge +625 0.167 · 86.9 · 5.9% 7.7% 10.4% F B O D 41

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Drohan +575 0.175 · 91.7 · 10.4% 7.7% 9.8% F B O D 48

· — William Contreras HOT vs Mahle +625 0.124 · 90.2 · 7.7% 8.3% 8.8% F B O D 40

· ATL Austin Riley vs Drohan Edge +575 0.144 · 91.4 · 10.1% 7.7% 9.2% F B O D 44

· ATL Ronald Acuna COOL vs Drohan Edge — 0.179 · 89.9 · 10.2% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 43

· — Brice Turang COOL vs Mahle Edge +850 0.173 · 90.4 · 7.5% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 44

· ATL Michael Harris COOL vs Drohan — 0.193 · 90.7 · 9.5% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 43

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Drohan Edge +950 0.124 · 87.0 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 31

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Drohan — 0.157 · 90.8 · 7.7% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 40

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Drohan — 0.124 · 87.7 · 6.8% 0.0% 4.7% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Shane Drohan — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Tyler Mahle — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Bauers Mitchell Yelich Ortiz

Legend

attack side — vs Mahle fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jake Bauers +500 · 60

Matt Olson +475 · 64

Stadium conditions

Journey Bank Ballpark

First pitch 7:10p · roof unknown

Park 1.00× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.00× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shane Drohan · LHP 0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.39 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 64 C+ +475 · 8 0.277 92.7 11.4% 23.3%vs LHP 408 24.4% 23.1% 21.3% 32

2 Drake Baldwin 48 D +575 COOL 64 0.175 91.7 10.4% 31.8%vs LHP 402 16.4% 7.7% 9.8% 41

3 Austin Riley 44 D +575 WARM 102 0.144 91.4 10.1% 16.0%vs LHP 407 9.3% 7.7% 9.2% 28

4 Ronald Acuna 43 D — COOL 105 0.179 89.9 10.2% 20.0%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 34

5 Michael Harris 43 D — COOL 106 0.193 90.7 9.5% 24.1%vs LHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 37

6 Ozzie Albies 41 D +625 COOL 120 0.167 86.9 5.9% 14.0%vs LHP 386 13.8% 7.7% 10.4% 41

7 Mike Yastrzemski 40 D — WARM 130 0.157 90.8 7.7% 0.0%vs LHP 389 8.4% 0.0% 5.7% 20

8 Dominic Smith 36 D — COOL 165 0.124 87.7 6.8% 0.0%vs LHP 392 8.0% 0.0% 4.7% 8

9 Mauricio Dubon 31 D +950 COOL 190 0.124 87.0 5.8% 10.0%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 37

vs Tyler Mahle · RHP 1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 60 C+ +500 · 13 0.233 92.5 10.2% 30.8%vs RHP 401 20.0% 23.1% 28.5% 32

2 Jackson Chourio 51 C +500 · 47 0.186 91.9 9.9% 17.8%vs RHP 401 15.6% 7.7% 12.8% 35

3 Garrett Mitchell 47 D +525 COOL 69 0.158 92.9 9.7% 22.9%vs RHP 415 7.9% 16.7% 11.2% 19

4 Christian Yelich 45 D +700 HOT 87 0.141 89.0 8.7% 18.4%vs RHP 400 8.0% 22.2% 14.4% 25

5 Brice Turang 44 D +850 COOL 98 0.173 90.4 7.5% 24.6%vs RHP 407 10.5% 0.0% 11.8% 24

6 William Contreras 40 D +625 HOT 125 0.124 90.2 7.7% 15.8%vs RHP 415 9.4% 8.3% 8.8% 39

7 Joey Ortiz 39 D — HOT 134 0.130 88.5 5.7% 14.3%vs RHP 391 7.1% 20.0% 13.5% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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