TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ CWS

Neutral air · 1.02×

NYM @ CWS

Rate Field · 2:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Miguel Vargas conv 30 · vs McLean ⟷ Carson Benge conv 19 · vs Newcomb → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Nolan McLean RHP · NYM

leak 81

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · leakiest side of this game

1 Miguel Vargas — C+ ●●●●●

2 Munetaka Murakami — C+ ●●●●●

3 Colson Montgomery — C ●●●○○

FADE Sean Newcomb LHP · CWS

leak 17

0.26 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.68 · stingy — thin edge

1 Carson Benge — D ●●●○○

2 Bo Bichette — D ●●●○○

3 Francisco Lindor — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: Match 34.7% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs McLean — 0.253 · 90.8 · 10.2% 33.3% 26.6% F B O C+ 63

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs McLean Edge — 0.296 · 94.0 · 11.9% 25.0% 34.7% F B O C+ 68

· CWS Colson Montgomery vs McLean Edge — 0.219 · 88.9 · 9.3% 16.7% 25.0% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· NYM Carson Benge vs Newcomb — 0.149 · 89.3 · 6.6% 25.0% 13.6% F B O D 42

· CWS Tristan Peters vs McLean Edge — 0.161 · 87.2 · 6.2% 22.2% 15.3% F B O D 43

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Newcomb Edge — 0.130 · 89.6 · 6.0% 25.0% 12.2% F B O D 39

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Newcomb Edge — 0.182 · 91.3 · 7.3% 16.7% 10.8% F B O D 45

· NYM Jared Young COOL vs Newcomb — 0.178 · 90.3 · 6.9% 11.1% 9.6% F B O D 42

· NYM Brett Baty HOT vs Newcomb — 0.115 · 90.0 · 7.4% 12.5% 7.4% F B O D 37

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs McLean Edge — 0.145 · 89.3 · 5.4% 8.3% 9.5% F B O D 38

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs McLean — 0.130 · 87.8 · 5.7% 9.1% 8.3% F B O D 37

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs McLean Edge — 0.175 · 88.9 · 7.7% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 44

· NYM Francisco Alvarez COOL vs Newcomb Edge — 0.169 · 90.1 · 9.6% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 41

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs McLean Edge — 0.122 · 87.4 · 6.2% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 36

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Newcomb Edge — 0.137 · 86.6 · 6.2% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 37

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Newcomb — 0.120 · 89.4 · 6.7% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Sean Newcomb — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Nolan McLean — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lindor Benge Bichette Murakami Vargas Montgomery Peters

Legend

attack side — vs McLean fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Miguel Vargas — · 63

Munetaka Murakami — · 68

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 2:10p · roof unknown

Park 1.02× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.02× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sean Newcomb · LHP 0.26 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.68 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor 45 D — · 89 0.182 91.3 7.3% 17.4%vs LHP 397 12.5% 16.7% 10.8% 40

2 Jared Young 42 D — COOL 114 0.178 90.3 6.9% 13.8% 400 7.5% 11.1% 9.6% 36

3 Carson Benge 42 D — · 117 0.149 89.3 6.6% 18.2%vs LHP 396 11.4% 25.0% 13.6% 38

4 Francisco Alvarez 41 D — COOL 118 0.169 90.1 9.6% 18.2%vs LHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 18

5 Bo Bichette 39 D — WARM 135 0.130 89.6 6.0% 18.5%vs LHP 385 10.3% 25.0% 12.2% 39

6 Marcus Semien 37 D — COOL 157 0.137 86.6 6.2% 11.5%vs LHP 391 11.4% 0.0% 7.4% 30

7 Brett Baty 37 D — HOT 158 0.115 90.0 7.4% 0.0%vs LHP 397 7.0% 12.5% 7.4% 15

8 A.J. Ewing 33 D — · 176 0.120 89.4 6.7% 12.5%vs LHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 29

vs Nolan McLean · RHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 68 C+ — · 4 0.296 94.0 11.9% 39.0%vs RHP 404 20.3% 25.0% 34.7% 29

2 Miguel Vargas 63 C+ — WARM 9 0.253 90.8 10.2% 17.2%vs RHP 393 21.6% 33.3% 26.6% 36

3 Colson Montgomery 56 C — · 21 0.219 88.9 9.3% 24.7%vs RHP 399 21.7% 16.7% 25.0% 26

4 Andrew Benintendi 44 D — COOL 97 0.175 88.9 7.7% 17.3%vs RHP 388 13.1% 0.0% 11.8% 25

5 Tristan Peters 43 D — WARM 111 0.161 87.2 6.2% 10.6%vs RHP 376 8.8% 22.2% 15.3% 26

6 Braden Montgomery 38 D — WARM 147 0.145 89.3 5.4% 15.0%vs RHP 390 7.3% 8.3% 9.5% 31

7 Chase Meidroth 37 D — · 154 0.130 87.8 5.7% 16.3%vs RHP 379 8.2% 9.1% 8.3% 34

8 Sam Antonacci 36 D — COOL 162 0.122 87.4 6.2% 13.6%vs RHP 390 8.9% 0.0% 8.4% 31

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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