TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.61×

PIT @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 4:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 8 mph out 99°F Roof open

Hourly window

+13 ↑

1:10p

+13 ↑

2:10p

+14 ↑

3:10p

+13 ↑

4:10p

+13 ↑

5:10p

the 3:10p window peaks +14

Best of game Max Muncy conv 37 · vs Bachar ⟷ Oneil Cruz conv 35 · vs Snell → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Lake Bachar RHP · MIA

leak 83

1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.50 · leakiest side of this game

1 Max Muncy +265 B ●●●●●

2 Shohei Ohtani +205 B ●●●●○

3 Mookie Betts +500 C ●●●○○

FADE Blake Snell LHP · LAD

leak 3

0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.15 · stingy — thin edge

1 Oneil Cruz +475 C ●●●●●

2 Brandon Lowe +500 C ●●●○○

3 Jared Triolo — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: Match 33.3% · 14D pace 40.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Max Muncy ✶ vs Bachar Edge +265 0.255 · 90.7 · 11.1% 40.0% 33.3% F B O B 70

· PIT Oneil Cruz vs Snell +475 0.228 · 96.0 · 8.8% 50.0% 19.9% F B O C 58

· — Shohei Ohtani vs Bachar Edge +205 0.258 · 93.5 · 12.2% 23.1% 33.1% F B O B 70

· — Mookie Betts COOL vs Bachar +500 0.172 · 90.2 · 8.3% 23.1% 18.1% F B O C 52

· PIT Brandon Lowe vs Snell +500 0.227 · 91.2 · 7.3% 18.2% 18.6% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· PIT Jared Triolo vs Snell Edge — 0.068 · 87.2 · 3.2% 10.0% 5.0% F B O D 28

· PIT Jake Mangum vs Snell Edge — 0.090 · 85.3 · 3.0% 9.1% 5.7% F B O D 29

· — Freddie Freeman COOL vs Bachar Edge +350 0.162 · 89.8 · 8.8% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 49

· — Teoscar Hernandez vs Bachar +425 0.148 · 89.7 · 9.0% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 44

· — Kyle Tucker COOL vs Bachar Edge +475 0.133 · 89.0 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 43

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Snell Edge +575 0.166 · 90.6 · 7.0% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 43

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Snell — 0.147 · 86.8 · 5.6% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 38

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Snell Edge +950 0.091 · 86.2 · 3.4% 0.0% 5.4% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Blake Snell — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Lake Bachar — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Cruz Lowe Muncy Ohtani Betts

Legend

attack side — vs Bachar fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Max Muncy +265 · 70

Oneil Cruz +475 · 58

Shohei Ohtani +205 · 70

Mookie Betts +500 · 52

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 8 mph out 99°F open

+13

↑

8 mph · out

97°F

1:10p

+13

↑

8 mph · out

100°F

2:10p

+14

↑

9 mph · out

99°F

3:10p · peak

+13

↑

9 mph · out

97°F

4:10p

+13

↑

9 mph · out

96°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.61× 99°F, wind 8 mph SW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Blake Snell · LHP 0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.15 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Oneil Cruz 58 C +475 WARM 18 0.228 96.0 8.8% 50.0%vs LHP 415 25.0% 50.0% 19.9% 7

2 Brandon Lowe 53 C +500 WARM 35 0.227 91.2 7.3% 16.1%vs LHP 391 17.1% 18.2% 18.6% 25

3 Bryan Reynolds 43 D +575 · 109 0.166 90.6 7.0% 17.6%vs LHP 409 11.0% 0.0% 8.6% 35

4 Spencer Horwitz 38 D — COOL 145 0.147 86.8 5.6% 14.3%vs LHP 395 10.0% 0.0% 7.3% 24

5 Jake Mangum 29 D — WARM 200 0.090 85.3 3.0% 5.9%vs LHP 393 4.7% 9.1% 5.7% 28

6 Nick Gonzales 29 D +950 COOL 201 0.091 86.2 3.4% 3.5%vs LHP 397 6.6% 0.0% 5.4% 25

7 Jared Triolo 28 D — WARM 204 0.068 87.2 3.2% 0.0%vs LHP 407 1.4% 10.0% 5.0% 29

vs Lake Bachar · RHP 1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.50 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy ✶ 70 B +265 · 2 0.255 90.7 11.1% 27.7%vs RHP 411 21.0% 40.0% 33.3% 51

2 Shohei Ohtani 70 B +205 · 3 0.258 93.5 12.2% 26.9%vs RHP 407 20.0% 23.1% 33.1% 36

3 Mookie Betts 52 C +500 COOL 40 0.172 90.2 8.3% 16.7%vs RHP 389 11.5% 23.1% 18.1% 42

4 Freddie Freeman 49 D +350 COOL 58 0.162 89.8 8.8% 14.5%vs RHP 398 10.3% 0.0% 11.2% 35

5 Teoscar Hernandez 44 D +425 WARM 96 0.148 89.7 9.0% 17.6%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 26

6 Kyle Tucker 43 D +475 COOL 108 0.133 89.0 7.2% 11.1%vs RHP 392 7.4% 0.0% 8.7% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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