TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.19×

CIN @ AZ

Chase Field · 4:15p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 3 mph out 113°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+4 ↑

1:15p

+4 ↑

2:15p

+4 ↑

3:15p

+5 ↑

4:15p

+5 ↑

5:15p

conditions build late — the 4:15p window peaks +5

Best of game Matt Mclain conv 25 · vs Bratt ⟷ Nolan Arenado conv 26 · vs Abbott → edge: Jj Bleday

ATTACK Mitch Bratt LHP · AZ

leak 38

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.62 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Mclain +850 D ●●●●○

2 Jj Bleday +525 C ●●●●○

3 Sal Stewart +425 C ●●○○○

FADE Andrew Abbott LHP · CIN

leak 34

1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.01 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nolan Arenado +575 D ●●●●○

2 Corbin Carroll +500 C ●●○○○

3 Tim Tawa +700 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jj Bleday: Match 14.9% · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Jj Bleday ✶ COOL vs Bratt +525 0.225 · 88.8 · 8.9% 33.3% 14.9% F B O C 52

· AZ Corbin Carroll COOL vs Abbott +500 0.235 · 91.7 · 9.3% 16.7% 14.0% F B O C 53

· CIN Sal Stewart COOL vs Bratt Edge +425 0.211 · 90.1 · 10.0% 14.3% 13.3% F B O C 53

· CIN Elly De La Cruz COOL vs Bratt Edge +400 0.212 · 93.8 · 10.5% 7.1% 14.2% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· AZ Nolan Arenado COOL vs Abbott Edge +575 0.203 · 85.1 · 7.1% 27.3% 24.1% F B O D 49

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Bratt Edge +850 0.164 · 88.0 · 9.2% 33.3% 16.3% F B O D 46

· AZ Tim Tawa vs Abbott Edge +700 0.164 · 90.6 · 8.3% 18.2% 8.7% F B O D 43

· AZ Gabriel Moreno HOT vs Abbott Edge +850 0.161 · 89.6 · 7.8% 16.7% 9.8% F B O D 42

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Bratt Edge +575 0.167 · 91.2 · 10.0% 8.3% 12.4% F B O D 46

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs Abbott Edge +850 0.140 · 87.5 · 5.2% 10.0% 9.4% F B O D 35

· CIN Eugenio Suarez COOL vs Bratt Edge +425 0.203 · 88.7 · 9.3% 0.0% 16.0% F B O D 45

· AZ Jose Fernandez vs Abbott Edge +950 0.099 · 87.6 · 5.6% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 31

· CIN Tj Friedl COOL vs Bratt — 0.077 · 87.4 · 4.4% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 30

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Abbott Edge — 0.126 · 87.5 · 4.8% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 32

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Abbott Edge +950 0.113 · 87.5 · 6.9% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Mitch Bratt — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Andrew Abbott — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stewart Bleday Mclain Carroll Arenado Tawa Moreno

Legend

attack side — vs Bratt fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Nolan Arenado +575 · 49

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 1:15p · roof retractable

Park 0.92× Wind 3 mph out 113°F retractable

↑

3 mph · out

111°F

1:15p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

114°F

2:15p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

113°F

3:15p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

113°F

4:15p · peak

↑

13 mph · slight_out

112°F

5:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.19× 113°F, wind 3 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Mitch Bratt · LHP 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.62 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart 53 C +425 COOL 38 0.211 90.1 10.0% 29.2%vs LHP 397 16.5% 14.3% 13.3% 44

2 Elly De La Cruz 53 C +400 COOL 39 0.212 93.8 10.5% 36.0%vs LHP 398 16.4% 7.1% 14.2% 37

3 Jj Bleday ✶ 52 C +525 COOL 45 0.225 88.8 8.9% 25.0%vs LHP 387 25.0% 33.3% 14.9% 35

4 Matt Mclain 46 D +850 COOL 75 0.164 88.0 9.2% 22.7%vs LHP 394 20.0% 33.3% 16.3% 34

5 Tyler Stephenson 46 D +575 WARM 78 0.167 91.2 10.0% 5.3%vs LHP 392 8.8% 8.3% 12.4% 25

6 Eugenio Suarez 45 D +425 COOL 85 0.203 88.7 9.3% 25.0%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 31

7 Tj Friedl 30 D — COOL 197 0.077 87.4 4.4% 4.8% 374 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 9

vs Andrew Abbott · LHP 1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.01 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 53 C +500 COOL 37 0.235 91.7 9.3% 17.2%vs LHP 402 13.6% 16.7% 14.0% 37

2 Nolan Arenado 49 D +575 COOL 60 0.203 85.1 7.1% 29.2%vs LHP 389 16.0% 27.3% 24.1% 30

3 Tim Tawa 43 D +700 WARM 112 0.164 90.6 8.3% 0.0%vs LHP 400 9.4% 18.2% 8.7% 35

4 Gabriel Moreno 42 D +850 HOT 113 0.161 89.6 7.8% 16.7%vs LHP 401 9.6% 16.7% 9.8% 41

5 Ildemaro Vargas 35 D +850 WARM 169 0.140 87.5 5.2% 21.4%vs LHP 396 5.3% 10.0% 9.4% 39

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 34 D +950 COOL 175 0.113 87.5 6.9% 0.0%vs LHP 419 2.6% 0.0% 6.0% 28

7 Geraldo Perdomo 32 D — COOL 186 0.126 87.5 4.8% 3.6%vs LHP 383 7.0% 0.0% 6.5% 39

8 Jose Fernandez 31 D +950 WARM 192 0.099 87.6 5.6% 8.1% 409 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 13

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.