TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.32×

STL @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 1:35p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.10× Wind 9 mph slight_out 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

1:35p

+5 ↑

2:35p

+5 ↑

3:35p

+4 ↑

4:35p

+5 ↑

5:35p

best window is early — 1:35p at +6

Best of game Jordan Walker conv 31 · vs Sánchez ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 32 · vs Leahy → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Cristopher Sánchez LHP · PHI

leak 87

0.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jordan Walker +525 C+ ●●●●●

2 Alec Burleson +625 C ●●●○○

3 Masyn Winn +950 D ●○○○○

FADE Kyle Leahy RHP · STL

leak 82

0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber +225 B ●●●●●

2 Bryce Harper +425 C+ ●●○○○

3 Brandon Marsh +625 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 38.5% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ vs Leahy Edge +225 0.283 · 92.8 · 13.1% 25.0% 38.5% F B O B 73

· STL Jordan Walker vs Sánchez Edge +525 0.220 · 92.4 · 9.9% 28.6% 33.8% F B O C+ 61

· STL Alec Burleson vs Sánchez +625 0.199 · 92.1 · 9.1% 23.1% 16.1% F B O C 54

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs Leahy Edge +425 0.235 · 90.2 · 10.4% 8.3% 20.4% F B O C+ 60

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Leahy Edge +625 0.163 · 89.6 · 9.3% 10.0% 12.3% F B O D 49

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Leahy Edge +700 0.149 · 89.1 · 7.6% 9.1% 9.6% F B O D 44

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Leahy +700 0.142 · 90.6 · 7.6% 9.1% 8.9% F B O D 45

· STL Masyn Winn HOT vs Sánchez Edge +950 0.088 · 88.2 · 5.1% 9.1% 8.1% F B O D 33

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Sánchez Edge +700 0.137 · 89.3 · 6.4% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 37

· PHI Trea Turner COOL vs Leahy +575 0.146 · 88.6 · 7.7% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 45

· STL José Fermín COOL vs Sánchez Edge — 0.117 · 86.5 · 4.1% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 34

· PHI J.T. Realmuto COOL vs Leahy +625 0.127 · 89.8 · 6.6% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 38

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Sánchez — 0.123 · 85.9 · 6.8% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 38

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Leahy Edge — 0.089 · 87.1 · 3.7% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 32

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Sánchez +850 0.134 · 89.9 · 7.4% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Cristopher Sánchez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Kyle Leahy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Walker Burleson Schwarber Harper

Legend

attack side — vs Sánchez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kyle Schwarber +225 · 73

Jordan Walker +525 · 61

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.10× Wind 9 mph slight_out 79°F open

↑

9 mph · slight_out

75°F

1:35p · peak

↑

9 mph · slight_out

77°F

2:35p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

79°F

3:35p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

81°F

4:35p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

80°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.32× 79°F, wind 9 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cristopher Sánchez · LHP 0.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 61 C+ +525 · 12 0.220 92.4 9.9% 36.0%vs LHP 406 18.6% 28.6% 33.8% 42

2 Alec Burleson 54 C +625 WARM 30 0.199 92.1 9.1% 9.1%vs LHP 405 15.3% 23.1% 16.1% 40

3 Jj Wetherholt 40 D +850 WARM 129 0.134 89.9 7.4% 10.0%vs LHP 393 16.7% 0.0% 7.2% 41

4 Nathan Church 38 D — COOL 144 0.123 85.9 6.8% 16.7%vs LHP 384 7.9% 0.0% 7.8% 30

5 Ivan Herrera 37 D +700 · 150 0.137 89.3 6.4% 24.0%vs LHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 40

6 José Fermín 34 D — COOL 171 0.117 86.5 4.1% 11.5%vs LHP 388 5.2% 0.0% 9.1% 31

7 Masyn Winn 33 D +950 HOT 177 0.088 88.2 5.1% 4.8%vs LHP 385 4.1% 9.1% 8.1% 26

vs Kyle Leahy · RHP 0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 73 B +225 · 1 0.283 92.8 13.1% 41.7%vs RHP 401 22.5% 25.0% 38.5% 37

2 Bryce Harper 60 C+ +425 COOL 14 0.235 90.2 10.4% 33.3%vs RHP 402 19.2% 8.3% 20.4% 27

3 Brandon Marsh 49 D +625 COOL 55 0.163 89.6 9.3% 19.7%vs RHP 391 12.1% 10.0% 12.3% 28

4 Trea Turner 45 D +575 COOL 90 0.146 88.6 7.7% 20.0%vs RHP 392 13.2% 0.0% 10.0% 29

5 Alec Bohm 45 D +700 WARM 94 0.142 90.6 7.6% 13.8%vs RHP 397 10.8% 9.1% 8.9% 42

6 Bryson Stott 44 D +700 COOL 101 0.149 89.1 7.6% 8.9%vs RHP 385 7.6% 9.1% 9.6% 39

7 J.T. Realmuto 38 D +625 COOL 142 0.127 89.8 6.6% 17.1%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 28

8 Justin Crawford 32 D — COOL 184 0.089 87.1 3.7% 4.3%vs RHP 382 2.2% 0.0% 7.8% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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