TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ BOS

Suppressed air · 0.91×

SF @ BOS

Fenway Park · 3:15p · 11 ranked batters

Park 0.91× Wind 6 mph cross 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

3:15p

-3 ↑

4:15p

-3 ↑

5:15p

-3 ↑

6:15p

-3 ↑

7:15p

the 4:15p window peaks -3

Best of game Willson Contreras conv 24 · vs Proxy ⟷ Bryce Eldridge conv 20 · vs Bennett → edge: Willson Contreras

ATTACK SF Bullpen Proxy · SF

leak 37

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Willson Contreras +305 C+ ●●●●○

2 Wilyer Abreu +500 C ●●○○○

3 Ceddanne Rafaela +700 D ●○○○○

FADE Jake Bennett LHP · BOS

leak 3

0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.54 · stingy — thin edge

1 Bryce Eldridge +575 D ●●●○○

2 Willy Adames +500 D ●●●○○

3 Drew Gilbert — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Willson Contreras: Match 23.7% · 14D pace 25.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Willson Contreras ✶ COOL vs Proxy +305 0.253 · 89.9 · 14.2% 25.0% 23.7% F B O C+ 63

· BOS Wilyer Abreu COOL vs Proxy +500 0.210 · 89.9 · 12.7% 15.4% 10.8% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Bennett +575 0.187 · 92.4 · 8.7% 25.0% 14.2% F B O D 47

· SF Willy Adames vs Bennett Edge +500 0.195 · 87.3 · 7.4% 22.2% 16.6% F B O D 44

· SF Drew Gilbert HOT vs Bennett — 0.135 · 86.4 · 5.4% 27.3% 9.0% F B O D 34

· SF Rafael Devers COOL vs Bennett +525 0.228 · 92.5 · 8.3% 16.7% 11.1% F B O D 49

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela COOL vs Proxy +700 0.175 · 86.4 · 5.7% 8.3% 8.9% F B O D 39

· BOS Jarren Duran COOL vs Proxy — 0.154 · 89.6 · 9.4% 8.3% 8.2% F B O D 43

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Proxy +750 0.145 · 83.6 · 2.8% 8.3% 7.2% F B O D 31

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Bennett — 0.138 · 87.0 · 4.0% 9.1% 5.4% F B O D 29

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Proxy +700 0.159 · 88.2 · 7.5% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Jake Bennett — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for SF Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Eldridge Adames Gilbert Contreras Abreu

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Willson Contreras +305 · 63

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 3:15p · roof open

Park 0.91× Wind 6 mph cross 77°F open

-5

↑

6 mph · cross

74°F

3:15p

-3

↑

5 mph · cross

75°F

4:15p · peak

-3

↑

5 mph · cross

75°F

5:15p

-3

↑

4 mph · cross

74°F

6:15p

-3

↑

4 mph · cross

74°F

7:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.91× 77°F, wind 6 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jake Bennett · LHP 0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.54 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 49 D +525 COOL 59 0.228 92.5 8.3% 10.3%vs LHP 398 18.3% 16.7% 11.1% 33

2 Bryce Eldridge 47 D +575 · 66 0.187 92.4 8.7% 20.0%vs LHP 400 19.4% 25.0% 14.2% 31

3 Willy Adames 44 D +500 · 103 0.195 87.3 7.4% 11.1%vs LHP 389 15.6% 22.2% 16.6% 23

4 Drew Gilbert 34 D — HOT 172 0.135 86.4 5.4% 10.0% 392 6.4% 27.3% 9.0% 22

5 Jung Hoo Lee 29 D — · 199 0.138 87.0 4.0% 9.1%vs LHP 382 6.0% 9.1% 5.4% 39

vs SF Bullpen Proxy 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras ✶ 63 C+ +305 COOL 15 0.253 89.9 14.2% 22.4% 405 20.3% 25.0% 23.7% 30

2 Wilyer Abreu 54 C +500 COOL 50 0.210 89.9 12.7% 13.3% 407 16.0% 15.4% 10.8% 40

3 Jarren Duran 43 D — COOL 131 0.154 89.6 9.4% 15.9% 398 13.2% 8.3% 8.2% 33

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 39 D +700 COOL 166 0.175 86.4 5.7% 13.1% 382 12.9% 8.3% 8.9% 43

5 Andruw Monasterio 39 D +700 COOL 167 0.159 88.2 7.5% 6.5% 390 11.3% 0.0% 7.3% 40

6 Caleb Durbin 31 D +750 COOL 205 0.145 83.6 2.8% 11.4% 376 9.1% 8.3% 7.2% 40

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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