TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.50×

ATH @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 2:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.16× Wind 2 mph slight_out 97°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+8 ↑

1:10p

+9 ↑

2:10p

+9 ↑

3:10p

+9 ↑

4:10p

+13 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 5:10p window peaks +13

Best of game Lawrence Butler conv 23 · vs Javier ⟷ Cam Smith conv 20 · vs Basso → edge: Yordan Alvarez

ATTACK Cristian Javier RHP · HOU

leak 7

1.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.03 · leakiest side of this game

1 Lawrence Butler — C ●●●●○

2 Jeff Mcneil — D ●●●○○

3 Henry Bolte — D ●○○○○

FADE Brady Basso LHP · ATH

leak 3

0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.63 · stingy — thin edge

1 Cam Smith — C ●●●○○

2 Christian Walker — C ●●○○○

3 Jeremy Peña — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Yordan Alvarez: Match 14.6%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Javier Edge — 0.135 · 89.3 · 7.9% 30.8% 15.0% F B O C 53

· HOU Cam Smith vs Basso Edge — 0.172 · 89.4 · 8.9% 18.2% 21.1% F B O C 54

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Basso Edge — 0.207 · 89.3 · 7.9% 10.0% 17.6% F B O C 55

· HOU Yordan Alvarez ✶ vs Basso — 0.295 · 94.5 · 10.9% 0.0% 14.6% F B O C+ 61

· ATH Jonah Heim COOL vs Javier Edge — 0.176 · 87.6 · 7.5% 0.0% 9.4% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· ATH Jeff Mcneil HOT vs Javier Edge — 0.094 · 86.8 · 4.0% 25.0% 7.7% F B O D 40

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Basso Edge — 0.183 · 88.3 · 6.0% 10.0% 12.2% F B O D 48

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Basso Edge — 0.161 · 85.8 · 6.0% 8.3% 10.0% F B O D 45

· ATH Henry Bolte COOL vs Javier — 0.097 · 90.9 · 7.6% 7.7% 9.2% F B O D 47

· HOU Christian Vazquez vs Basso Edge — 0.130 · 85.9 · 4.0% 0.0% 14.9% F B O D 37

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Basso Edge — 0.148 · 85.1 · 5.8% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 39

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Javier Edge — 0.144 · 89.3 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 47

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Basso Edge — 0.139 · 87.9 · 6.1% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 43

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Cristian Javier — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Brady Basso — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Butler Mcneil Alvarez Walker Smith

Legend

attack side — vs Javier fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.16× Wind 2 mph slight_out 97°F retractable

↑

2 mph · slight_out

92°F

1:10p

↑

2 mph · out

96°F

2:10p

↑

1 mph · out

100°F

3:10p

↑

2 mph · slight_out

103°F

4:10p

+13

↑

6 mph · out

101°F

5:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.50× 97°F, wind 2 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cristian Javier · RHP 1.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.03 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Lawrence Butler 53 C — WARM 36 0.135 89.3 7.9% 20.0%vs RHP 409 8.2% 30.8% 15.0% 37

2 Jonah Heim 51 C — COOL 48 0.176 87.6 7.5% 5.6%vs RHP 414 8.5% 0.0% 9.4% 30

3 Henry Bolte 47 D — COOL 70 0.097 90.9 7.6% 4.5%vs RHP 410 10.2% 7.7% 9.2% 38

4 Carlos Cortes 47 D — COOL 71 0.144 89.3 7.2% 14.3%vs RHP 403 4.4% 0.0% 8.8% 27

5 Jeff Mcneil 40 D — HOT 124 0.094 86.8 4.0% 11.3%vs RHP 381 5.4% 25.0% 7.7% 45

vs Brady Basso · LHP 0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.63 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez ✶ 61 C+ — · 11 0.295 94.5 10.9% 23.7%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 14.6% 33

2 Christian Walker 55 C — COOL 26 0.207 89.3 7.9% 26.3%vs LHP 392 17.5% 10.0% 17.6% 28

3 Cam Smith 54 C — · 29 0.172 89.4 8.9% 23.1%vs LHP 408 13.0% 18.2% 21.1% 27

4 Jeremy Peña 48 D — · 63 0.183 88.3 6.0% 7.7%vs LHP 384 14.5% 10.0% 12.2% 26

5 Isaac Paredes 45 D — COOL 91 0.161 85.8 6.0% 3.9%vs LHP 379 11.4% 8.3% 10.0% 42

6 Yainer Diaz 43 D — WARM 110 0.139 87.9 6.1% 0.0%vs LHP 398 9.8% 0.0% 7.9% 20

7 Jose Altuve 39 D — COOL 133 0.148 85.1 5.8% 14.3%vs LHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 28

8 Christian Vazquez 37 D — WARM 149 0.130 85.9 4.0% 8.3%vs LHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 12

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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