TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ KC

Neutral air · 1.00×

DET @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 2:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 6 mph cross 69°F Roof open

Hourly window

-4 ↑

1:10p

-5 ↑

2:10p

-2 ↑

3:10p

+0 ↑

4:10p

-2 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 4:10p window peaks +0

Best of game Vinnie Pasquantino conv 23 · vs Proxy ⟷ Colt Keith conv 10 · vs IV → edge: Jac Caglianone

ATTACK DET Bullpen Proxy · DET

leak 45

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Vinnie Pasquantino +750 D ●●●○○

2 Jac Caglianone +625 C+ ●●●○○

3 Michael Massey — D ●●○○○

FADE Daniel Lynch IV LHP · KC

leak 38

0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · stingy — thin edge

1 Colt Keith — D ●●○○○

2 Gleyber Torres +575 D ●○○○○

3 Dillon Dingler +525 C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jac Caglianone: Match 17.6% · 14D pace 16.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Jac Caglianone ✶ vs Proxy +625 0.215 · 93.2 · 14.4% 16.7% 17.6% F B O C+ 60

· KC Carter Jensen vs Proxy +525 0.183 · 90.9 · 10.3% 9.1% 10.6% F B O C 50

· DET Dillon Dingler COOL vs IV Edge +525 0.231 · 88.8 · 8.0% 0.0% 13.8% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino HOT vs Proxy +750 0.132 · 89.5 · 7.3% 33.3% 11.9% F B O D 42

· KC Michael Massey vs Proxy — 0.169 · 89.5 · 6.0% 16.7% 12.0% F B O D 42

· DET Colt Keith vs IV — 0.151 · 89.1 · 6.8% 12.5% 7.5% F B O D 40

· KC Bobby Witt COOL vs Proxy — 0.173 · 92.5 · 11.5% 0.0% 16.0% F B O D 49

· DET Gleyber Torres COOL vs IV Edge +575 0.125 · 86.2 · 6.3% 8.3% 7.4% F B O D 37

· DET Spencer Torkelson COOL vs IV Edge +500 0.185 · 89.3 · 8.8% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 46

· KC Salvador Perez vs Proxy +525 0.152 · 88.9 · 9.9% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 41

· KC Nick Loftin vs Proxy +950 0.139 · 86.9 · 4.3% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 35

· KC Isaac Collins vs Proxy +850 0.120 · 88.7 · 5.8% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 35

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle vs IV +750 0.138 · 88.1 · 6.4% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 38

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs IV — 0.106 · 85.6 · 3.8% 0.0% 5.4% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Daniel Lynch IV — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for DET Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caglianone Pasquantino Massey

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 1.00× Wind 6 mph cross 69°F open

-4

↑

6 mph · cross

67°F

1:10p

-5

↑

5 mph · in

68°F

2:10p

-2

↑

4 mph · cross

70°F

3:10p

↑

3 mph · cross

70°F

4:10p · peak

-2

↑

3 mph · in

67°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.00× 69°F, wind 6 mph E (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Daniel Lynch IV · LHP 0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 51 C +525 COOL 46 0.231 88.8 8.0% 16.7%vs LHP 398 19.3% 0.0% 13.8% 34

2 Spencer Torkelson 46 D +500 COOL 81 0.185 89.3 8.8% 9.7%vs LHP 394 14.5% 0.0% 10.0% 22

3 Colt Keith 40 D — WARM 128 0.151 89.1 6.8% 10.0% 385 6.7% 12.5% 7.5% 24

4 Kevin Mcgonigle 38 D +750 · 146 0.138 88.1 6.4% 7.7%vs LHP 397 20.0% 0.0% 6.6% 40

5 Gleyber Torres 37 D +575 COOL 159 0.125 86.2 6.3% 12.5%vs LHP 393 9.6% 8.3% 7.4% 41

6 Zach Mckinstry 29 D — COOL 198 0.106 85.6 3.8% 0.0%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 25

vs DET Bullpen Proxy 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone ✶ 60 C+ +625 · 20 0.215 93.2 14.4% 26.5% 417 14.8% 16.7% 17.6% 34

2 Carter Jensen 50 C +525 WARM 72 0.183 90.9 10.3% 12.8% 397 14.6% 9.1% 10.6% 27

3 Bobby Witt 49 D — COOL 84 0.173 92.5 11.5% 12.6% 403 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 38

4 Vinnie Pasquantino 42 D +750 HOT 140 0.132 89.5 7.3% 7.5% 402 9.8% 33.3% 11.9% 22

5 Michael Massey 42 D — · 141 0.169 89.5 6.0% 10.7% 399 7.8% 16.7% 12.0% 32

6 Salvador Perez 41 D +525 · 148 0.152 88.9 9.9% 12.2% 406 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 39

7 Nick Loftin 35 D +950 · 188 0.139 86.9 4.3% 6.4% 397 7.7% 0.0% 7.3% 27

8 Isaac Collins 35 D +850 WARM 189 0.120 88.7 5.8% 5.8% 394 5.6% 0.0% 6.8% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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