TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ BAL

Neutral air · 1.00×

TB @ BAL

Camden Yards · 7:15p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 4 mph cross 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

7:15p

-1 ↑

8:15p

-3 ↑

9:15p

-4 ↑

10:15p

-4 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 8:15p at -1

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 18 · vs Rogers ⟷ Pete Alonso conv 33 · vs Peralta → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Trevor Rogers LHP · BAL

leak 70

0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.33 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero +265 C+ ●●●○○

2 Yandy Diaz +500 D ●○○○○

3 Taylor Walls +950 D ●○○○○

FADE Freddy Peralta RHP · NYM

leak 65

1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.37 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Alonso +305 C+ ●●●●●

2 Colton Cowser +525 D ●●●●○

3 Coby Mayo — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: 14.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 38.5%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Pete Alonso ✶ HOT vs Peralta +305 0.231 · 94.2 · 9.4% 38.5% 28.1% F B O C+ 63

· — Coby Mayo vs Peralta — 0.228 · 92.2 · 8.7% 20.0% 18.2% F B O C 56

· TB Junior Caminero COOL vs Rogers Edge +265 0.260 · 92.7 · 9.7% 15.4% 20.8% F B O C+ 60

· — Samuel Basallo HOT vs Peralta Edge +350 0.207 · 91.3 · 9.0% 0.0% 20.2% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· — Colton Cowser vs Peralta Edge +525 0.141 · 87.2 · 8.4% 37.5% 16.6% F B O D 48

· — Gunnar Henderson vs Peralta Edge +390 0.179 · 89.9 · 6.8% 15.4% 13.1% F B O D 48

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Rogers Edge +500 0.168 · 91.0 · 7.0% 0.0% 18.2% F B O D 40

· — Leody Taveras vs Peralta Edge +700 0.135 · 87.8 · 5.3% 9.1% 8.8% F B O D 38

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Rogers Edge +950 0.078 · 85.4 · 4.0% 9.1% 8.3% F B O D 28

· — Jackson Holliday COOL vs Peralta Edge +625 0.131 · 87.4 · 6.9% 7.7% 8.9% F B O D 40

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Rogers +525 0.139 · 91.0 · 8.5% 7.7% 6.2% F B O D 42

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Rogers Edge — 0.103 · 85.2 · 4.0% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 30

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs Rogers — 0.117 · 86.4 · 5.3% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 33

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Rogers — 0.148 · 87.7 · 5.0% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 37

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Rogers — 0.056 · 83.8 · — 0.0% 5.4% F B O D 17

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 65.1% ← leak OFF 22.0% BRK 13.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R Edge

16.0% 7.7% 11.8% 13.4% C+ 60 +265

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

100

Jonathan Aranda L

10.7% 4.7% 13.2% 10.1% D 42 +525

113

Yandy Diaz R Edge

5.8% 4.0% 10.9% 7.2% D 40 +500

153

Cedric Mullins L

3.2% 8.1% 3.1% 3.8% D 37 —

175

Richie Palacios L

4.9% 3.1% 1.8% 3.8% D 33 —

194

Nick Fortes R Edge

2.8% 0.0% 1.8% 2.3% D 30 —

196

Taylor Walls S Edge

3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% D 28 +950

207

Chandler Simpson L

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 17 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.1% usage) carries Rogers's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.5% ← leak BRK 23.6% OFF 21.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Pete Alonso R

15.4% 11.1% 15.0% 14.1% C+ 63 +305

Coby Mayo R

10.8% 13.6% 14.3% 12.2% C 56 —

Samuel Basallo L Edge

15.0% 11.7% 11.4% 13.2% C 53 +350

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Colton Cowser L Edge

14.8% 14.0% 2.1% 11.0% D 48 +525

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

7.7% 6.4% 7.6% 7.3% D 48 +390

117

Jackson Holliday L Edge

8.1% 5.0% 8.1% 7.4% D 40 +625

139

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.9% 7.1% 0.0% 4.3% D 38 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.5% usage) carries Peralta's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Alonso Mayo Cowser Henderson

Legend

attack side — vs Rogers fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Pete Alonso +305 · 63

Coby Mayo — · 56

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.00× Wind 4 mph cross 73°F open

-2

↑

4 mph · cross

73°F

7:15p

-1

↑

3 mph · cross

72°F

8:15p · peak

-3

↑

4 mph · cross

71°F

9:15p

-4

↑

5 mph · in

70°F

10:15p

-4

↑

5 mph · in

69°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.00× 73°F, wind 4 mph E (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Trevor Rogers · LHP 0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.33 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero 60 C+ +265 COOL 11 0.260 92.7 9.7% 33.3%vs LHP 413 25.8% 15.4% 20.8% 36

2 Jonathan Aranda 42 D +525 · 100 0.139 91.0 8.5% 4.3%vs LHP 386 10.9% 7.7% 6.2% 39

3 Yandy Diaz 40 D +500 · 113 0.168 91.0 7.0% 21.2%vs LHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 18.2% 50

4 Cedric Mullins 37 D — COOL 153 0.148 87.7 5.0% 0.0%vs LHP 389 11.9% 0.0% 6.1% 27

5 Richie Palacios 33 D — COOL 175 0.117 86.4 5.3% 7.4% 398 4.2% 0.0% 6.2% 29

6 Nick Fortes 30 D — COOL 194 0.103 85.2 4.0% 5.6%vs LHP 396 4.4% 0.0% 7.0% 9

7 Taylor Walls 28 D +950 COOL 196 0.078 85.4 4.0% 3.9%vs LHP 383 1.0% 9.1% 8.3% 33

8 Chandler Simpson 17 D — COOL 207 0.056 83.8 — 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 47

vs Freddy Peralta · RHP 1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.37 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 63 C+ +305 HOT 9 0.231 94.2 9.4% 29.3%vs RHP 400 20.5% 38.5% 28.1% 37

2 Coby Mayo 56 C — · 25 0.228 92.2 8.7% 10.5%vs RHP 411 16.8% 20.0% 18.2% 29

3 Samuel Basallo 53 C +350 HOT 29 0.207 91.3 9.0% 29.2%vs RHP 398 16.2% 0.0% 20.2% 2

4 Colton Cowser 48 D +525 WARM 53 0.141 87.2 8.4% 18.9%vs RHP 417 15.4% 37.5% 16.6% 19

5 Gunnar Henderson 48 D +390 WARM 57 0.179 89.9 6.8% 17.9%vs RHP 391 15.2% 15.4% 13.1% 38

6 Jackson Holliday 40 D +625 COOL 117 0.131 87.4 6.9% 16.7%vs RHP 388 4.2% 7.7% 8.9% 42

7 Leody Taveras 38 D +700 · 139 0.135 87.8 5.3% 14.3%vs RHP 405 4.5% 9.1% 8.8% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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