TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ BOS

Suppressed air · 0.90×

SF @ BOS

Fenway Park · 7:10p · 11 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 6 mph in 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

-8 ↑

7:10p

-7 ↑

8:10p

-6 ↑

9:10p

-6 ↑

10:10p

-7 ↑

11:10p

the 9:10p window peaks -6

Best of game Bryce Eldridge conv 22 · vs Gray ⟷ Willson Contreras conv 21 · vs Webb → edge: Willson Contreras

ATTACK Sonny Gray RHP · BOS

leak 55

0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · leakiest side of this game

1 Bryce Eldridge +525 D ●●●○○

2 Rafael Devers +425 C ●●●○○

3 Willy Adames +525 D ●●●○○

FADE Logan Webb RHP · SF

leak 30

0.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.32 · stingy — thin edge

1 Willson Contreras +500 C ●●●○○

2 Wilyer Abreu +500 D ●●○○○

3 Jarren Duran +850 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Willson Contreras: 13.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 18.2% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Willson Contreras ✶ COOL vs Webb +500 0.248 · 90.2 · 8.7% 18.2% 22.9% F B O C 52

· SF Rafael Devers vs Gray Edge +425 0.227 · 92.6 · 8.2% 16.7% 19.7% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Gray Edge +525 0.192 · 92.1 · 8.6% 25.0% 18.9% F B O D 48

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Gray +525 0.187 · 87.2 · 7.2% 22.2% 12.2% F B O D 42

· SF Drew Gilbert vs Gray Edge +850 0.128 · 86.2 · 5.1% 18.2% 11.4% F B O D 32

· BOS Wilyer Abreu vs Webb Edge +500 0.209 · 90.0 · 8.4% 16.7% 12.2% F B O D 46

· BOS Jarren Duran COOL vs Webb Edge +850 0.152 · 89.7 · 7.1% 16.7% 12.2% F B O D 38

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela COOL vs Webb +850 0.179 · 86.4 · 5.6% 8.3% 9.5% F B O D 37

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Webb — 0.148 · 83.9 · 4.0% 8.3% 8.2% F B O D 30

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Gray Edge — 0.141 · 86.9 · 4.0% 9.1% 7.3% F B O D 30

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Webb +950 0.163 · 88.4 · 6.6% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.0% ← leak BRK 36.8% OFF 5.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rafael Devers L Edge

12.0% 10.1% 7.6% 10.6% C 50 +425

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

12.3% 9.3% 15.6% 12.2% D 48 +525

101

Willy Adames R

7.3% 8.4% 13.8% 8.2% D 42 +525

177

Drew Gilbert L Edge

5.2% 4.2% 0.0% 4.1% D 32 +850

193

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 2.5% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.0% usage) carries Gray's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 55.9% ← leak OFF 24.9% BRK 19.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Willson Contreras R

11.5% 21.6% 15.5% 13.8% C 52 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

11.6% 12.0% 15.6% 12.7% D 46 +500

138

Jarren Duran L Edge

11.7% 7.0% 6.9% 9.3% D 38 +850

148

Ceddanne Rafaela R

3.4% 12.0% 7.1% 5.8% D 37 +850

162

Andruw Monasterio R

7.6% 13.3% 6.9% 7.8% D 35 +950

192

Caleb Durbin R

3.1% 2.7% 2.3% 2.9% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.9% usage) carries Webb's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Eldridge Adames Gilbert Contreras Abreu Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Gray fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Bryce Eldridge +525 · 48

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.90× Wind 6 mph in 72°F open

-8

↑

6 mph · in

72°F

7:10p

-7

↑

5 mph · in

70°F

8:10p

-6

↑

4 mph · in

69°F

9:10p · peak

-6

↑

4 mph · in

67°F

10:10p

-7

↑

4 mph · in

66°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.90× 72°F, wind 6 mph ENE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sonny Gray · RHP 0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 50 C +425 · 45 0.227 92.6 8.2% 26.6%vs RHP 397 17.7% 16.7% 19.7% 29

2 Bryce Eldridge 48 D +525 · 54 0.192 92.1 8.6% 20.8%vs RHP 399 20.0% 25.0% 18.9% 28

3 Willy Adames 42 D +525 COOL 101 0.187 87.2 7.2% 20.2%vs RHP 387 15.0% 22.2% 12.2% 20

4 Drew Gilbert 32 D +850 WARM 177 0.128 86.2 5.1% 14.3%vs RHP 393 5.3% 18.2% 11.4% 25

5 Jung Hoo Lee 30 D — · 193 0.141 86.9 4.0% 12.3%vs RHP 382 6.1% 9.1% 7.3% 36

vs Logan Webb · RHP 0.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.32 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras ✶ 52 C +500 COOL 34 0.248 90.2 8.7% 31.0%vs RHP 404 19.8% 18.2% 22.9% 27

2 Wilyer Abreu 46 D +500 · 68 0.209 90.0 8.4% 17.1%vs RHP 407 16.3% 16.7% 12.2% 37

3 Jarren Duran 38 D +850 COOL 138 0.152 89.7 7.1% 29.6%vs RHP 399 13.4% 16.7% 12.2% 31

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 37 D +850 COOL 148 0.179 86.4 5.6% 16.9%vs RHP 382 13.1% 8.3% 9.5% 45

5 Andruw Monasterio 35 D +950 COOL 162 0.163 88.4 6.6% 2.3%vs RHP 390 11.8% 0.0% 6.8% 40

6 Caleb Durbin 30 D — COOL 192 0.148 83.9 4.0% 20.0%vs RHP 376 9.2% 8.3% 8.2% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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