TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ NYY

Playable air · 1.05×

TOR @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 7:05p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 5 mph in 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

7:05p

-2 ↑

8:05p

-2 ↑

9:05p

-2 ↑

10:05p

-2 ↑

11:05p

the 8:05p window peaks -2

Best of game Kazuma Okamoto conv 17 · vs Schlittler ⟷ Ben Rice conv 28 · vs Proxy → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Cam Schlittler RHP · NYY

leak 84

0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kazuma Okamoto +540 C ●●●○○

2 Nathan Lukes +800 D ●●○○○

3 George Springer +600 D ●○○○○

FADE TOR Bullpen Proxy · TOR

leak 47

1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ben Rice +350 B ●●●●○

2 Trent Grisham +320 C ●●●●○

3 Paul Goldschmidt — C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: Match 31.0% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Proxy +350 0.283 · 92.2 · 15.1% 25.0% 31.0% F B O B 73

· NYY Trent Grisham HOT vs Proxy +320 0.200 · 90.7 · 9.9% 33.3% 21.2% F B O C 56

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto vs Schlittler +540 0.203 · 90.4 · 9.9% 18.2% 16.1% F B O C 53

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt vs Proxy — 0.203 · 86.6 · 10.4% 0.0% 17.1% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Schlittler Edge +800 0.096 · 86.6 · 3.1% 22.2% 7.7% F B O D 31

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs Proxy — 0.146 · 83.8 · 4.1% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 35

· TOR George Springer COOL vs Schlittler +600 0.155 · 88.4 · 7.4% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 41

· NYY Jazz Chisholm COOL vs Proxy — 0.169 · 90.7 · 9.1% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 45

· TOR Jesús Sánchez vs Schlittler Edge +650 0.163 · 90.9 · 9.6% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 44

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Proxy — 0.151 · 91.3 · 9.7% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 45

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Schlittler — 0.120 · 84.5 · 4.3% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 32

· NYY Austin Wells COOL vs Proxy — 0.118 · 89.0 · 6.9% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 39

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Schlittler — 0.110 · 85.7 · 5.1% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 32

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Schlittler Edge — 0.116 · 85.7 · 5.2% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 89.8% ← leak BRK 10.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R

14.1% 6.9% 12.5% C 53 +540

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jesús Sánchez L Edge

10.6% 18.3% 11.3% D 44 +650

108

George Springer R

7.3% 5.6% 6.7% D 41 +600

182

Ernie Clement R

2.5% 2.3% 2.3% D 32 —

183

Myles Straw R

3.7% 0.0% 3.1% D 32 —

187

Andres Gimenez L Edge

3.5% 2.1% 3.2% D 31 —

190

Nathan Lukes L Edge

0.6% 3.4% 1.5% D 31 +800

Read the columns: the fastball family (89.8% usage) carries Schlittler's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for TOR Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Lukes Rice Grisham

Legend

attack side — vs Schlittler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Ben Rice +350 · 73

Trent Grisham +320 · 56

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 5 mph in 74°F open

-3

↑

5 mph · in

74°F

7:05p

-2

↑

4 mph · in

73°F

8:05p · peak

-2

↑

4 mph · in

71°F

9:05p

-2

↑

4 mph · in

70°F

10:05p

-2

↑

4 mph · in

69°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.05× 74°F, wind 5 mph E (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cam Schlittler · RHP 0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 53 C +540 · 31 0.203 90.4 9.9% 27.9%vs RHP 397 17.9% 18.2% 16.1% 27

2 Jesús Sánchez 44 D +650 · 84 0.163 90.9 9.6% 19.1%vs RHP 398 10.1% 0.0% 10.5% 10

3 George Springer 41 D +600 COOL 108 0.155 88.4 7.4% 21.1%vs RHP 393 10.4% 0.0% 11.4% 22

4 Ernie Clement 32 D — COOL 182 0.120 84.5 4.3% 6.2%vs RHP 376 7.6% 0.0% 7.8% 35

5 Myles Straw 32 D — COOL 183 0.110 85.7 5.1% 5.3%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 22

6 Andres Gimenez 31 D — COOL 187 0.116 85.7 5.2% 10.3%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 35

7 Nathan Lukes 31 D +800 WARM 190 0.096 86.6 3.1% 12.2%vs RHP 381 7.1% 22.2% 7.7% 37

vs TOR Bullpen Proxy 1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 73 B +350 WARM 3 0.283 92.2 15.1% 29.8% 393 25.0% 25.0% 31.0% 29

2 Trent Grisham 56 C +320 HOT 33 0.200 90.7 9.9% 14.4% 385 13.9% 33.3% 21.2% 30

3 Paul Goldschmidt 53 C — WARM 49 0.203 86.6 10.4% 20.0% 390 15.9% 0.0% 17.1% 2

4 Ryan Mcmahon 45 D — COOL 102 0.151 91.3 9.7% 14.7% 387 16.7% 0.0% 9.5% 18

5 Jazz Chisholm 45 D — COOL 103 0.169 90.7 9.1% 16.7% 388 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 19

6 Austin Wells 39 D — COOL 156 0.118 89.0 6.9% 9.9% 387 9.0% 0.0% 7.7% 22

7 Jose Caballero 35 D — COOL 186 0.146 83.8 4.1% 16.2% 383 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 4

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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