TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.11×

STL @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 6:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.11× Wind 1 mph in 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

6:40p

+3 ↑

7:40p

+4 ↑

8:40p

+5 ↑

9:40p

+8 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks +8

Best of game Jordan Walker conv 28 · vs Luzardo ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 25 · vs Proxy → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Jesús Luzardo LHP · PHI

leak 71

0.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jordan Walker — C ●●●●○

2 Alec Burleson — C ●●●○○

3 Masyn Winn — D ●○○○○

FADE STL Bullpen Proxy · STL

leak 43

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber — B ●●●●○

2 Bryce Harper — C+ ●●○○○

3 Brandon Marsh — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 32.4% · 14D pace 16.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Luzardo Edge — 0.214 · 92.6 · 8.9% 28.6% 26.6% F B O C 58

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Proxy — 0.281 · 93.2 · 17.6% 16.7% 32.4% F B O B 78

· STL Alec Burleson vs Luzardo — 0.202 · 92.1 · 8.3% 21.4% 22.2% F B O C 54

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs Proxy — 0.232 · 90.2 · 11.0% 8.3% 16.8% F B O C+ 61

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· PHI Brandon Marsh vs Proxy — 0.162 · 89.6 · 8.4% 9.1% 10.8% F B O D 49

· PHI Trea Turner COOL vs Proxy — 0.148 · 88.4 · 6.2% 10.0% 9.5% F B O D 45

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Proxy — 0.140 · 90.5 · 5.7% 10.0% 8.8% F B O D 44

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Proxy — 0.150 · 89.4 · 6.1% 8.3% 8.7% F B O D 44

· STL Masyn Winn HOT vs Luzardo Edge — 0.088 · 88.2 · 4.5% 7.7% 7.6% F B O D 32

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Luzardo Edge — 0.140 · 89.5 · 6.0% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 37

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Luzardo — 0.120 · 86.0 · 6.2% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 37

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Luzardo — 0.130 · 89.6 · 6.5% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 39

· STL José Fermín COOL vs Luzardo Edge — 0.118 · 86.7 · 3.5% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 34

· PHI J.T. Realmuto COOL vs Proxy — 0.119 · 89.7 · 4.5% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 36

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Proxy — 0.090 · 87.1 · 1.4% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 43.5% ← leak BRK 38.0% OFF 18.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jordan Walker R Edge

14.1% 11.6% 16.2% 13.4% C 58 —

Alec Burleson L

12.0% 11.2% 11.0% 11.6% C 54 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

130

Jj Wetherholt L

9.8% 4.0% 1.9% 7.2% D 39 —

143

Ivan Herrera R Edge

6.3% 4.7% 6.5% 5.8% D 37 —

144

Nathan Church L

7.7% 6.2% 4.5% 6.5% D 37 —

166

José Fermín R Edge

2.3% 2.1% 0.0% 1.9% D 34 —

184

Masyn Winn R Edge

4.1% 1.9% 5.7% 3.6% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (43.5% usage) carries Luzardo's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for STL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Walker Burleson Schwarber

Legend

attack side — vs Luzardo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jordan Walker — · 58

Alec Burleson — · 54

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.11× Wind 1 mph in 77°F open

↑

1 mph · in

77°F

6:40p

↑

1 mph · cross

75°F

7:40p

↑

2 mph · slight_out

73°F

8:40p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

71°F

9:40p

↑

5 mph · out

70°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.11× 77°F, wind 1 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jesús Luzardo · LHP 0.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 58 C — COOL 16 0.214 92.6 8.9% 33.3%vs LHP 408 18.1% 28.6% 26.6% 41

2 Alec Burleson 54 C — WARM 28 0.202 92.1 8.3% 9.1%vs LHP 405 15.4% 21.4% 22.2% 36

3 Jj Wetherholt 39 D — · 130 0.130 89.6 6.5% 10.4%vs LHP 391 16.7% 0.0% 8.7% 39

4 Ivan Herrera 37 D — WARM 143 0.140 89.5 6.0% 24.0%vs LHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 40

5 Nathan Church 37 D — COOL 144 0.120 86.0 6.2% 16.7%vs LHP 384 8.0% 0.0% 9.5% 30

6 José Fermín 34 D — COOL 166 0.118 86.7 3.5% 11.5%vs LHP 388 5.4% 0.0% 8.6% 23

7 Masyn Winn 32 D — HOT 184 0.088 88.2 4.5% 4.8%vs LHP 390 4.1% 7.7% 7.6% 34

vs STL Bullpen Proxy 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 78 B — COOL 1 0.281 93.2 17.6% 31.1% 402 22.0% 16.7% 32.4% 34

2 Bryce Harper 61 C+ — COOL 17 0.232 90.2 11.0% 23.6% 403 18.7% 8.3% 16.8% 30

3 Brandon Marsh 49 D — · 72 0.162 89.6 8.4% 16.8% 391 12.2% 9.1% 10.8% 31

4 Trea Turner 45 D — COOL 104 0.148 88.4 6.2% 13.6% 392 13.4% 10.0% 9.5% 30

5 Alec Bohm 44 D — WARM 111 0.140 90.5 5.7% 12.7% 397 11.0% 10.0% 8.8% 38

6 Bryson Stott 44 D — COOL 112 0.150 89.4 6.1% 7.5% 385 7.6% 8.3% 8.7% 41

7 J.T. Realmuto 36 D — COOL 176 0.119 89.7 4.5% 11.0% 398 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 26

8 Justin Crawford 30 D — COOL 203 0.090 87.1 1.4% 3.4% 382 2.2% 0.0% 7.1% 31

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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