TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ COL

Coors Field is live · 1.15×

CLE @ COL

Coors Field · 8:40p · 12 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 15 mph cross 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

-6 ↑

6:40p

+4 ↑

7:40p

+8 ↑

8:40p

+8 ↑

9:40p

+7 ↑

10:40p

the 8:40p window peaks +8

Best of game Brayan Rocchio conv 9 · vs Gordon ⟷ Mickey Moniak conv 13 · vs Cantillo → edge: Mickey Moniak

ATTACK Tanner Gordon RHP · COL

leak 89

1.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.61 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brayan Rocchio +575 D ●○○○○

2 Steven Kwan +850 D ●○○○○

3 Angel Martinez +370 D ●○○○○

FADE Joey Cantillo LHP · CLE

leak 34

1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · stingy — thin edge

1 Mickey Moniak +350 C ●●○○○

2 Willi Castro +575 D ●○○○○

3 Jake Mccarthy +700 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Mickey Moniak: 10.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 10.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Mickey Moniak ✶ vs Cantillo +350 0.273 · 89.3 · 9.5% 10.0% 15.8% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· COL Willi Castro vs Cantillo Edge +575 0.158 · 87.8 · 8.2% 8.3% 10.4% F B O D 45

· CLE Brayan Rocchio HOT vs Gordon Edge +575 0.120 · 86.7 · 5.9% 9.1% 8.9% F B O D 40

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Gordon Edge +850 0.061 · 83.7 · 1.8% 8.3% 7.5% F B O D 27

· CLE Angel Martinez COOL vs Gordon Edge +370 0.188 · 87.3 · 9.2% 0.0% 15.1% F B O D 47

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Cantillo +700 0.195 · 84.7 · 6.2% 0.0% 13.6% F B O D 45

· CLE Chase Delauter COOL vs Gordon Edge +330 0.157 · 91.2 · 8.2% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 45

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Gordon Edge +390 0.136 · 88.1 · 6.8% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 42

· CLE Jose Ramirez vs Gordon Edge +330 0.146 · 89.3 · 7.3% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 41

· COL Tj Rumfield vs Cantillo +625 0.154 · 83.8 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 39

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Cantillo Edge +625 0.121 · 87.3 · 7.2% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 39

· COL Troy Johnston vs Cantillo — 0.109 · 89.6 · 4.2% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 46.0% BRK 33.0% OFF 21.0% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Angel Martinez S Edge

8.2% 14.9% 2.8% 7.9% D 47 +370

Chase Delauter L Edge

8.2% 6.6% 1.5% 6.5% D 45 +330

Travis Bazzana L Edge

5.4% 3.6% 2.9% 4.7% D 42 +390

105

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 41 +330

118

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.9% 4.5% 1.1% 3.3% D 40 +575

200

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 27 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Gordon's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 39.9% ← leak BRK 34.2% OFF 25.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Mickey Moniak L

9.8% 20.8% 2.0% 10.5% C 58 +350

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Jake Mccarthy L

5.9% 1.2% 5.9% 4.8% D 45 +700

Willi Castro S Edge

10.7% 6.9% 5.1% 8.5% D 45 +575

127

Tj Rumfield L

5.6% 1.8% 5.5% 4.4% D 39 +625

132

Ezequiel Tovar R Edge

6.0% 6.5% 6.9% 6.3% D 39 +625

173

Troy Johnston L

2.4% 2.4% 1.6% 2.2% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (39.9% usage) carries Cantillo's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Moniak

Legend

attack side — vs Gordon fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 15 mph cross 76°F open

-6

↑

15 mph · cross

76°F

6:40p

↑

12 mph · slight_out

76°F

7:40p

↑

8 mph · out

76°F

8:40p · peak

↑

6 mph · out

75°F

9:40p

↑

5 mph · out

74°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.15× 76°F, wind 15 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tanner Gordon · RHP 1.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.61 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 47 D +370 COOL 61 0.188 87.3 9.2% 26.3%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 15.1% 27

2 Chase Delauter 45 D +330 COOL 73 0.157 91.2 8.2% 25.0%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 32

3 Travis Bazzana 42 D +390 WARM 96 0.136 88.1 6.8% 17.6%vs RHP 396 9.8% 0.0% 9.9% 26

4 Jose Ramirez 41 D +330 WARM 105 0.146 89.3 7.3% 10.6%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 30

5 Brayan Rocchio 40 D +575 HOT 118 0.120 86.7 5.9% 12.3%vs RHP 384 7.5% 9.1% 8.9% 31

6 Steven Kwan 27 D +850 COOL 200 0.061 83.7 1.8% 3.0%vs RHP 372 1.7% 8.3% 7.5% 37

vs Joey Cantillo · LHP 1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mickey Moniak ✶ 58 C +350 · 15 0.273 89.3 9.5% 20.0%vs LHP 417 17.6% 10.0% 15.8% 27

2 Jake Mccarthy 45 D +700 COOL 75 0.195 84.7 6.2% 26.7%vs LHP 416 11.1% 0.0% 13.6% 41

3 Willi Castro 45 D +575 · 79 0.158 87.8 8.2% 14.3%vs LHP 411 11.3% 8.3% 10.4% 32

4 Tj Rumfield 39 D +625 · 127 0.154 83.8 6.0% 6.9%vs LHP 410 5.6% 0.0% 8.2% 35

5 Ezequiel Tovar 39 D +625 COOL 132 0.121 87.3 7.2% 6.2%vs LHP 408 7.3% 0.0% 7.6% 21

6 Troy Johnston 33 D — WARM 173 0.109 89.6 4.2% 4.5%vs LHP 415 1.1% 0.0% 6.7% 13

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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