TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.76×

ATH @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 8:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.17× Wind 14 mph out 94°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+21 ↑

7:10p

+19 ↑

8:10p

+18 ↑

9:10p

+16 ↑

10:10p

+14 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +21

Best of game Cam Smith conv 25 · vs Ginn ⟷ Lawrence Butler conv 25 · vs Wesneski → edge: Cam Smith

ATTACK J.T. Ginn RHP · ATH

leak 81

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cam Smith +525 C ●●●●○

2 Christian Walker +425 C ●●○○○

3 Jeremy Peña — C ●●○○○

FADE Hayden Wesneski RHP · HOU

leak 78

0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.29 · stingy — thin edge

1 Lawrence Butler +525 C ●●●●○

2 Jeff Mcneil +700 D ●●●○○

3 Henry Bolte +575 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Cam Smith: 11.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 27.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· HOU Cam Smith ✶ vs Ginn +525 0.177 · 89.3 · 8.2% 27.3% 23.1% F B O C 56

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Wesneski Edge +525 0.140 · 89.5 · 7.7% 30.8% 18.7% F B O C 50

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Ginn +425 0.210 · 89.4 · 7.4% 10.0% 17.3% F B O C 57

· HOU Jeremy Peña COOL vs Ginn — 0.186 · 88.3 · 5.6% 9.1% 15.9% F B O C 51

· HOU Yordan Alvarez COOL vs Ginn Edge +235 0.293 · 94.5 · 10.2% 0.0% 21.1% F B O C+ 63

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· ATH Jeff Mcneil HOT vs Wesneski Edge +700 0.098 · 86.6 · 3.9% 25.0% 11.6% F B O D 38

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Wesneski +575 0.100 · 90.9 · 7.4% 15.4% 6.6% F B O D 44

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Ginn +575 0.161 · 86.1 · 5.6% 8.3% 12.0% F B O D 47

· HOU Christian Vazquez vs Ginn — 0.133 · 85.9 · 3.2% 0.0% 17.0% F B O D 39

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Ginn +700 0.150 · 85.1 · 5.4% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 41

· HOU Yainer Diaz COOL vs Ginn +850 0.140 · 87.7 · 5.5% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 45

· ATH Jonah Heim vs Wesneski Edge +575 0.180 · 87.7 · 7.3% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 48

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Wesneski Edge +700 0.148 · 89.5 · 7.0% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 45

· ATH Jacob Wilson COOL vs Wesneski — 0.122 · 84.1 · 4.3% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 61.9% ← leak BRK 29.2% OFF 8.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Lawrence Butler L Edge

8.1% 9.6% 3.7% 7.4% C 50 +525

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Jonah Heim S Edge

7.1% 3.8% 9.8% 6.9% D 48 +575

Carlos Cortes L Edge

7.2% 3.8% 7.8% 6.5% D 45 +700

Henry Bolte R

7.6% 7.8% 3.8% 7.2% D 44 +575

136

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

1.7% 3.2% 1.5% 1.9% D 38 +700

141

Jacob Wilson R

4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% D 38 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.9% usage) carries Wesneski's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 64.0% ← leak OFF 20.4% BRK 15.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

17.7% 10.0% 22.4% 17.5% C+ 63 +235

Christian Walker R

7.9% 13.9% 10.3% 9.3% C 57 +425

Cam Smith R

9.5% 17.2% 15.7% 11.7% C 56 +525

Jeremy Peña R

4.0% 10.0% 6.8% 5.3% C 51 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Isaac Paredes R

7.3% 1.9% 3.1% 5.4% D 47 +575

Yainer Diaz R

6.1% 6.5% 2.9% 5.1% D 45 +850

107

Jose Altuve R

5.8% 0.0% 4.7% 5.0% D 41 +700

125

Christian Vazquez R

3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% D 39 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.0% usage) carries Ginn's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Butler Mcneil Walker Smith

Legend

attack side — vs Ginn fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Cam Smith +525 · 56

Lawrence Butler +525 · 50

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.17× Wind 14 mph out 94°F retractable

+21

↑

14 mph · out

94°F

7:10p · peak

+19

↑

13 mph · out

91°F

8:10p

+18

↑

12 mph · out

89°F

9:10p

+16

↑

11 mph · out

87°F

10:10p

+14

↑

10 mph · out

85°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.76× 94°F, wind 14 mph S (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Hayden Wesneski · RHP 0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.29 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Lawrence Butler 50 C +525 WARM 46 0.140 89.5 7.7% 20.4%vs RHP 409 8.3% 30.8% 18.7% 35

2 Jonah Heim 48 D +575 · 59 0.180 87.7 7.3% 5.6%vs RHP 414 8.9% 0.0% 11.4% 29

3 Carlos Cortes 45 D +700 COOL 78 0.148 89.5 7.0% 14.6%vs RHP 403 4.5% 0.0% 10.8% 20

4 Henry Bolte 44 D +575 · 85 0.100 90.9 7.4% 4.5%vs RHP 410 10.6% 15.4% 6.6% 37

5 Jeff Mcneil 38 D +700 HOT 136 0.098 86.6 3.9% 11.3%vs RHP 381 5.4% 25.0% 11.6% 32

6 Jacob Wilson 38 D — COOL 141 0.122 84.1 4.3% 13.9%vs RHP 386 6.5% 0.0% 7.0% 20

vs J.T. Ginn · RHP 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 63 C+ +235 COOL 7 0.293 94.5 10.2% 26.7%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 21.1% 33

2 Christian Walker 57 C +425 COOL 20 0.210 89.4 7.4% 25.3%vs RHP 392 17.8% 10.0% 17.3% 27

3 Cam Smith ✶ 56 C +525 WARM 22 0.177 89.3 8.2% 20.0%vs RHP 408 13.3% 27.3% 23.1% 22

4 Jeremy Peña 51 C — COOL 40 0.186 88.3 5.6% 28.9%vs RHP 384 14.7% 9.1% 15.9% 31

5 Isaac Paredes 47 D +575 COOL 62 0.161 86.1 5.6% 16.9%vs RHP 379 11.6% 8.3% 12.0% 40

6 Yainer Diaz 45 D +850 COOL 80 0.140 87.7 5.5% 25.8%vs RHP 398 10.0% 0.0% 11.6% 16

7 Jose Altuve 41 D +700 COOL 107 0.150 85.1 5.4% 22.0%vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 27

8 Christian Vazquez 39 D — WARM 125 0.133 85.9 3.2% 18.2%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 17.0% 11

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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