TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ SEA

Playable air · 1.08×

CHC @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 10:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind 4 mph slight_out 79°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+2 ↑

7:10p

+3 ↑

8:10p

+4 ↑

9:10p

+3 ↑

10:10p

+3 ↑

11:10p

the 9:10p window peaks +4

Best of game Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 31 · vs Hancock ⟷ Randy Arozarena conv 23 · vs Boyd → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Emerson Hancock RHP · SEA

leak 80

1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.03 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +305 C+ ●●●●●

2 Seiya Suzuki +400 C ●●●●○

3 Ian Happ +500 C ●●●○○

FADE Matthew Boyd LHP · CHC

leak 13

1.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · stingy — thin edge

1 Randy Arozarena +400 C ●●●●○

2 Julio Rodríguez +370 C ●●●○○

3 Dominic Canzone +525 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: 12.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Hancock Edge +305 0.271 · 90.3 · 10.2% 33.3% 28.7% F B O C+ 63

· CHC Seiya Suzuki COOL vs Hancock +400 0.215 · 88.7 · 9.5% 27.3% 23.1% F B O C 54

· SEA Randy Arozarena COOL vs Boyd Edge +400 0.178 · 90.9 · 8.7% 25.0% 21.8% F B O C 52

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Hancock Edge +500 0.191 · 89.3 · 9.6% 18.2% 17.6% F B O C 51

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Boyd Edge +370 0.165 · 90.0 · 9.4% 16.7% 17.8% F B O C 50

· SEA Dominic Canzone COOL vs Boyd +525 0.236 · 91.6 · 11.3% 8.3% 16.6% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· CHC Alex Bregman HOT vs Hancock +525 0.149 · 88.3 · 6.1% 16.7% 15.1% F B O D 40

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Boyd Edge +320 0.141 · 89.0 · 11.1% 9.1% 10.4% F B O D 47

· CHC Michael Busch COOL vs Hancock Edge +500 0.144 · 88.0 · 8.5% 9.1% 8.7% F B O D 42

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Boyd +750 0.104 · 87.7 · 7.0% 9.1% 8.0% F B O D 37

· SEA Cole Young COOL vs Boyd +750 0.140 · 88.9 · 6.8% 9.1% 7.3% F B O D 41

· CHC Nico Hoerner COOL vs Hancock — 0.098 · 85.8 · 3.0% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 27

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Hancock — 0.112 · 87.0 · 6.7% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 74.2% ← leak BRK 20.8% OFF 5.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

11.4% 14.3% 12.9% 12.5% C+ 63 +305

Seiya Suzuki R

11.8% 9.1% 12.5% 10.8% C 54 +400

Ian Happ S Edge

14.8% 14.1% 1.3% 11.0% C 51 +500

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Michael Busch L Edge

12.1% 3.8% 2.0% 8.8% D 42 +500

116

Alex Bregman R

3.7% 6.8% 5.9% 4.7% D 40 +525

170

Carson Kelly R

6.1% 4.1% 5.6% 5.4% D 34 —

201

Nico Hoerner R

1.0% 0.9% 2.1% 1.1% D 27 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (74.2% usage) carries Hancock's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 46.3% ← leak BRK 27.0% OFF 26.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Dominic Canzone L

15.4% 11.8% 8.5% 12.8% C 57 +525

Randy Arozarena R Edge

7.7% 7.3% 7.0% 7.4% C 52 +400

Julio Rodríguez R Edge

9.8% 7.8% 9.1% 9.1% C 50 +370

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Cal Raleigh S Edge

10.1% 16.0% 14.0% 12.3% D 47 +320

110

Cole Young L

4.2% 8.6% 1.6% 4.7% D 41 +750

150

Josh Naylor L

4.5% 8.0% 1.5% 4.8% D 37 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.3% usage) carries Boyd's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Happ Bregman Arozarena Rodríguez

Legend

attack side — vs Hancock fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Pete Crow-Armstrong +305 · 63

Seiya Suzuki +400 · 54

Randy Arozarena +400 · 52

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.98× Wind 4 mph slight_out 79°F retractable

↑

4 mph · slight_out

79°F

7:10p

↑

3 mph · out

77°F

8:10p

↑

4 mph · out

75°F

9:10p · peak

↑

4 mph · out

73°F

10:10p

↑

5 mph · out

71°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.08× 79°F, wind 4 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Emerson Hancock · RHP 1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.03 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 63 C+ +305 · 8 0.271 90.3 10.2% 23.9%vs RHP 396 21.1% 33.3% 28.7% 33

2 Seiya Suzuki 54 C +400 COOL 27 0.215 88.7 9.5% 22.7%vs RHP 406 17.1% 27.3% 23.1% 31

3 Ian Happ 51 C +500 COOL 39 0.191 89.3 9.6% 22.7%vs RHP 402 16.7% 18.2% 17.6% 30

4 Michael Busch 42 D +500 COOL 97 0.144 88.0 8.5% 12.9%vs RHP 401 12.5% 9.1% 8.7% 35

5 Alex Bregman 40 D +525 HOT 116 0.149 88.3 6.1% 18.2%vs RHP 387 10.4% 16.7% 15.1% 41

6 Carson Kelly 34 D — COOL 170 0.112 87.0 6.7% 6.7%vs RHP 413 6.9% 0.0% 6.7% 21

7 Nico Hoerner 27 D — COOL 201 0.098 85.8 3.0% 7.6%vs RHP 381 5.6% 0.0% 6.8% 42

vs Matthew Boyd · LHP 1.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 57 C +525 COOL 21 0.236 91.6 11.3% 40.0%vs LHP 402 15.5% 8.3% 16.6% 33

2 Randy Arozarena 52 C +400 COOL 36 0.178 90.9 8.7% 19.1%vs LHP 384 13.8% 25.0% 21.8% 33

3 Julio Rodríguez 50 C +370 WARM 44 0.165 90.0 9.4% 24.3%vs LHP 405 16.3% 16.7% 17.8% 29

4 Cal Raleigh 47 D +320 WARM 64 0.141 89.0 11.1% 20.8%vs LHP 390 12.9% 9.1% 10.4% 21

5 Cole Young 41 D +750 COOL 110 0.140 88.9 6.8% 12.1%vs LHP 385 11.5% 9.1% 7.3% 33

6 Josh Naylor 37 D +750 · 150 0.104 87.7 7.0% 11.1%vs LHP 392 6.7% 9.1% 8.0% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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