TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ MIL

Suppressed air · 0.92×

ATL @ MIL

American Family Field · 4:10p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 6 mph cross 70°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+8 ↑

3:10p

+8 ↑

4:10p

+8 ↑

5:10p

+8 ↑

6:10p

+8 ↑

7:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · +8 FIT

Best of game Matt Olson conv 30 · vs Misiorowski ⟷ Joey Ortiz conv 17 · vs Sale → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Jacob Misiorowski RHP · MIL

leak 68

0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.16 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson — C ●●●●●

2 Austin Riley — D ●●○○○

3 Drake Baldwin — D ●○○○○

FADE Chris Sale LHP · ATL

leak 34

0.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joey Ortiz — D ●●●○○

2 Jake Bauers — D ●●●○○

3 Jackson Chourio — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: 15.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.283 · 92.5 · 7.8% 30.8% 28.9% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 17 long shots

· MIL Joey Ortiz HOT vs Sale Edge — 0.131 · 88.2 · 4.9% 22.2% 11.3% F B O D 32

· MIL Jake Bauers vs Sale — 0.230 · 92.5 · 9.0% 15.4% 17.2% F B O D 49

· ATL Austin Riley HOT vs Misiorowski — 0.145 · 91.3 · 7.0% 15.4% 14.4% F B O D 37

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Sale Edge — 0.190 · 92.0 · 8.8% 15.4% 14.1% F B O D 44

· MIL Gary Sanchez vs Sale Edge — 0.225 · 88.5 · 7.3% 0.0% 21.9% F B O D 39

· MIL Luis Lara vs Sale Edge — 0.114 · 89.4 · 5.1% 14.3% 6.0% F B O D 32

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.178 · 91.7 · 7.2% 7.7% 11.3% F B O D 40

· ATL Ozzie Albies COOL vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.171 · 86.9 · 4.1% 7.7% 9.4% F B O D 34

· MIL William Contreras HOT vs Sale Edge — 0.124 · 90.0 · 6.8% 8.3% 6.5% F B O D 32

· ATL Ronald Acuna Jr. COOL vs Misiorowski — 0.188 · 90.3 · 7.2% 0.0% 13.2% F B O D 35

· ATL Michael Harris II COOL vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.192 · 90.7 · 6.5% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 40

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.160 · 90.6 · 5.3% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 33

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.126 · 87.8 · 4.7% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 29

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Sale — 0.178 · 90.5 · 6.9% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 37

· MIL Andrew Vaughn COOL vs Sale Edge — 0.152 · 89.8 · 5.9% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 33

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Misiorowski — 0.127 · 86.9 · 3.9% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 25

· MIL Cooper Pratt COOL vs Sale Edge — 0.093 · 87.7 · 4.7% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 76.6% ← leak BRK 21.8% OFF 1.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Matt Olson L Edge

18.2% 12.0% 11.6% 15.5% C 57 —

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

141

Michael Harris II L Edge

6.9% 13.4% 13.8% 10.4% D 40 —

143

Drake Baldwin L Edge

12.7% 20.0% 4.2% 13.2% D 40 —

173

Austin Riley R

13.1% 14.0% 5.4% 12.4% D 37 —

186

Ronald Acuna Jr. R

12.9% 10.9% 15.4% 12.8% D 35 —

197

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.6% 1.7% 2.8% 4.2% D 34 —

206

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

7.6% 7.5% 5.9% 7.3% D 33 —

226

Dominic Smith L Edge

5.8% 7.4% 2.5% 5.6% D 29 —

240

Mauricio Dubon R

3.2% 5.5% 4.8% 4.1% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (76.6% usage) carries Misiorowski's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 49.3% ← leak BRK 39.5% OFF 11.3% Overall Score

Long shots · 9 — below the fade line

Jake Bauers L

14.6% 12.8% 13.5% 14.0% D 49 —

100

Jackson Chourio R Edge

13.5% 14.1% 6.1% 12.8% D 44 —

151

Gary Sanchez R Edge

12.2% 6.2% 0.0% 8.8% D 39 —

176

Brice Turang L

9.0% 9.6% 1.6% 7.8% D 37 —

207

Andrew Vaughn R Edge

8.8% 2.0% 0.0% 5.9% D 33 —

211

Joey Ortiz R Edge

4.3% 5.6% 0.0% 4.5% D 32 —

217

William Contreras R Edge

8.3% 9.3% 0.0% 7.8% D 32 —

218

Luis Lara S Edge

4.9% 0.0% 8.3% 3.9% D 32 —

232

Cooper Pratt R Edge

7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.3% usage) carries Sale's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Riley Bauers Chourio Ortiz

Legend

attack side — vs Misiorowski fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Matt Olson — · 57

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 3:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.92× Wind 6 mph cross 70°F retractable

↑

11 mph · out

66°F

3:10p · peak

↑

11 mph · out

66°F

4:10p

↑

11 mph · out

66°F

5:10p

↑

11 mph · out

66°F

6:10p

↑

11 mph · out

66°F

7:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.92× 70°F, wind 6 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jacob Misiorowski · RHP 0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.16 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 57 C — · 21 0.283 92.5 7.8% 34.8%vs RHP 408 24.8% 30.8% 28.9% 31

2 Michael Harris II 40 D — COOL 141 0.192 90.7 6.5% 22.8%vs RHP 400 16.9% 0.0% 11.9% 35

3 Drake Baldwin 40 D — COOL 143 0.178 91.7 7.2% 25.0%vs RHP 403 16.7% 7.7% 11.3% 45

4 Austin Riley 37 D — HOT 173 0.145 91.3 7.0% 18.1%vs RHP 407 9.4% 15.4% 14.4% 26

5 Ronald Acuna Jr. 35 D — COOL 186 0.188 90.3 7.2% 23.1%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 39

6 Ozzie Albies 34 D — COOL 197 0.171 86.9 4.1% 13.3%vs RHP 386 14.1% 7.7% 9.4% 40

7 Mike Yastrzemski 33 D — WARM 206 0.160 90.6 5.3% 18.6%vs RHP 389 8.6% 0.0% 10.6% 18

8 Dominic Smith 29 D — COOL 226 0.126 87.8 4.7% 14.8%vs RHP 392 8.1% 0.0% 9.2% 5

9 Mauricio Dubon 25 D — COOL 240 0.127 86.9 3.9% 10.3%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 36

vs Chris Sale · LHP 0.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 49 D — · 58 0.230 92.5 9.0% 20.8%vs LHP 401 19.4% 15.4% 17.2% 31

2 Jackson Chourio 44 D — · 100 0.190 92.0 8.8% 33.3%vs LHP 401 15.9% 15.4% 14.1% 35

3 Gary Sanchez 39 D — · 151 0.225 88.5 7.3% 30.8%vs LHP 407 0.0% 0.0% 21.9% 13

4 Brice Turang 37 D — COOL 176 0.178 90.5 6.9% 5.6%vs LHP 407 10.7% 0.0% 8.2% 24

5 Andrew Vaughn 33 D — COOL 207 0.152 89.8 5.9% 15.8%vs LHP 407 8.3% 0.0% 8.0% 26

6 Joey Ortiz 32 D — HOT 211 0.131 88.2 4.9% 13.3%vs LHP 391 7.2% 22.2% 11.3% 21

7 William Contreras 32 D — HOT 217 0.124 90.0 6.8% 11.1%vs LHP 415 9.6% 8.3% 6.5% 39

8 Luis Lara 32 D — WARM 218 0.114 89.4 5.1% 6.7% 0 12.5% 14.3% 6.0% 33

9 Cooper Pratt 28 D — COOL 232 0.093 87.7 4.7% 7.4% 401 9.5% 0.0% 6.1% 8

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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