TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ CWS

Neutral air · 1.01×

NYM @ CWS

Rate Field · 7:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Munetaka Murakami conv 38 · vs Manaea ⟷ Francisco Lindor conv 15 · vs Burke → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Sean Manaea LHP · NYM

leak 93

1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · leakiest side of this game

1 Munetaka Murakami +320 B ●●●●●

2 Miguel Vargas +320 C+ ●●●●○

3 Colson Montgomery +425 C ●●○○○

FADE Sean Burke RHP · CWS

leak 67

1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · stingy — thin edge

1 Francisco Lindor +370 D ●●○○○

2 Carson Benge +525 D ●●○○○

3 Brett Baty +575 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: 21.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 41.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Manaea +320 0.307 · 94.3 · 14.0% 41.7% 34.4% F B O B 74

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Manaea Edge +320 0.248 · 90.7 · 11.6% 25.0% 30.1% F B O C+ 65

· CWS Colson Montgomery vs Manaea +425 0.217 · 88.8 · 10.5% 8.3% 17.4% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Burke Edge +370 0.187 · 91.4 · 8.6% 16.7% 14.2% F B O D 48

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Burke Edge +525 0.146 · 89.5 · 7.6% 18.2% 11.2% F B O D 42

· NYM Brett Baty HOT vs Burke Edge +575 0.115 · 89.8 · 8.2% 12.5% 10.6% F B O D 39

· CWS Tristan Peters COOL vs Manaea — 0.155 · 87.3 · 6.7% 12.5% 8.2% F B O D 42

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Burke +625 0.141 · 86.4 · 7.3% 10.0% 8.8% F B O D 40

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Manaea Edge +950 0.134 · 87.8 · 6.4% 9.1% 8.8% F B O D 40

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Burke +700 0.122 · 89.4 · 6.9% 8.3% 7.3% F B O D 37

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Manaea Edge +750 0.136 · 89.2 · 6.0% 7.7% 7.8% F B O D 39

· NYM Francisco Alvarez COOL vs Burke +400 0.173 · 90.2 · 11.2% 0.0% 13.5% F B O D 44

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Manaea — 0.179 · 88.9 · 9.0% 0.0% 12.9% F B O D 48

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Burke Edge +700 0.123 · 89.9 · 7.8% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 35

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Manaea — 0.125 · 87.5 · 7.2% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 60.3% ← leak BRK 37.2% OFF 2.4% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.0% 7.7% 6.4% 9.4% D 48 +370

Francisco Alvarez R

16.3% 15.1% 16.7% 15.9% D 44 +400

Carson Benge L Edge

7.0% 8.8% 6.5% 7.4% D 42 +525

120

Marcus Semien R

9.5% 2.1% 6.9% 6.8% D 40 +625

128

Brett Baty L Edge

8.1% 14.0% 4.0% 8.6% D 39 +575

151

Bo Bichette R

4.8% 11.2% 0.0% 6.3% D 37 +700

157

A.J. Ewing L Edge

8.5% 12.5% 0.0% 8.0% D 35 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.3% usage) carries Burke's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 65.6% ← leak BRK 30.9% OFF 3.5% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Munetaka Murakami L

24.8% 18.2% 16.7% 21.5% B 74 +320

Neutral · 2

Miguel Vargas R Edge

16.3% 11.0% 13.5% 14.4% C+ 65 +320

Colson Montgomery L

11.7% 10.9% 14.0% 11.9% C 57 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Andrew Benintendi L

12.3% 4.5% 5.4% 8.7% D 48 —

Tristan Peters L

6.0% 4.9% 0.0% 4.8% D 42 —

119

Chase Meidroth R Edge

4.0% 5.7% 3.8% 4.4% D 40 +950

131

Braden Montgomery S Edge

4.8% 3.2% 2.2% 3.8% D 39 +750

134

Sam Antonacci L

7.3% 4.9% 0.0% 5.6% D 39 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.6% usage) carries Manaea's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lindor Benge Murakami Vargas

Legend

attack side — vs Manaea fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Munetaka Murakami +320 · 74

Miguel Vargas +320 · 65

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.01× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.01× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sean Burke · RHP 1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor 48 D +370 · 55 0.187 91.4 8.6% 17.4%vs RHP 397 12.8% 16.7% 14.2% 34

2 Francisco Alvarez 44 D +400 COOL 81 0.173 90.2 11.2% 26.8%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 18

3 Carson Benge 42 D +525 COOL 93 0.146 89.5 7.6% 15.7%vs RHP 399 10.7% 18.2% 11.2% 33

4 Marcus Semien 40 D +625 COOL 120 0.141 86.4 7.3% 17.2%vs RHP 391 11.7% 10.0% 8.8% 28

5 Brett Baty 39 D +575 HOT 128 0.115 89.8 8.2% 12.9%vs RHP 397 7.1% 12.5% 10.6% 15

6 Bo Bichette 37 D +700 · 151 0.122 89.4 6.9% 9.9%vs RHP 389 8.9% 8.3% 7.3% 37

7 A.J. Ewing 35 D +700 WARM 157 0.123 89.9 7.8% 11.9%vs RHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 27

vs Sean Manaea · LHP 1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 74 B +320 WARM 2 0.307 94.3 14.0% 31.6%vs LHP 402 20.8% 41.7% 34.4% 27

2 Miguel Vargas 65 C+ +320 · 5 0.248 90.7 11.6% 28.2%vs LHP 392 21.1% 25.0% 30.1% 36

3 Colson Montgomery 57 C +425 · 19 0.217 88.8 10.5% 27.6%vs LHP 399 21.2% 8.3% 17.4% 25

4 Andrew Benintendi 48 D — COOL 58 0.179 88.9 9.0% 13.5% 388 13.3% 0.0% 12.9% 19

5 Tristan Peters 42 D — COOL 98 0.155 87.3 6.7% 0.0%vs LHP 377 7.9% 12.5% 8.2% 23

6 Chase Meidroth 40 D +950 COOL 119 0.134 87.8 6.4% 19.1%vs LHP 379 8.3% 9.1% 8.8% 31

7 Braden Montgomery 39 D +750 WARM 131 0.136 89.2 6.0% 9.1%vs LHP 383 5.0% 7.7% 7.8% 30

8 Sam Antonacci 39 D — COOL 134 0.125 87.5 7.2% 0.0%vs LHP 390 9.0% 0.0% 7.0% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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