TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.18×

PIT @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 10:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 6 mph out 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

+10 ↑

7:10p

+8 ↑

8:10p

+7 ↑

9:10p

+7 ↑

10:10p

+6 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +10

Best of game Oneil Cruz conv 36 · vs Yamamoto ⟷ Max Muncy conv 30 · vs Chandler → edge: Shohei Ohtani

ATTACK Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP · LAD

leak 72

0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · leakiest side of this game

1 Oneil Cruz +350 C ●●●●●

2 Brandon Lowe +390 C ●●●●○

3 Jared Triolo — D ●○○○○

FADE Bubba Chandler RHP · PIT

leak 59

0.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.63 · stingy — thin edge

1 Max Muncy +255 C+ ●●●●●

2 Shohei Ohtani +210 C+ ●●●●○

3 Andy Pages +400 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Shohei Ohtani: 16.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Oneil Cruz vs Yamamoto Edge +350 0.214 · 96.0 · 10.4% 50.0% 22.1% F B O C 59

· LAD Max Muncy vs Chandler Edge +255 0.246 · 90.5 · 9.2% 30.0% 30.9% F B O C+ 64

· PIT Brandon Lowe COOL vs Yamamoto Edge +390 0.227 · 91.2 · 9.1% 25.0% 29.0% F B O C 59

· LAD Shohei Ohtani ✶ vs Chandler Edge +210 0.262 · 93.5 · 9.9% 23.1% 30.8% F B O C+ 66

· LAD Andy Pages vs Chandler +400 0.186 · 88.9 · 6.9% 23.1% 15.4% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Chandler +500 0.175 · 90.5 · 6.7% 23.1% 13.7% F B O D 49

· PIT Jared Triolo vs Yamamoto — 0.070 · 87.6 · 4.2% 11.1% 8.2% F B O D 31

· PIT Jake Mangum vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.089 · 85.5 · 3.8% 9.1% 8.1% F B O D 32

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Chandler Edge +500 0.136 · 88.8 · 6.0% 8.3% 8.3% F B O D 41

· PIT Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Yamamoto Edge +625 0.165 · 90.6 · 8.6% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 46

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Chandler Edge +425 0.165 · 89.7 · 7.2% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 46

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Yamamoto Edge +625 0.150 · 86.9 · 7.1% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 42

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Chandler +475 0.151 · 89.8 · 7.1% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 41

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Yamamoto +850 0.094 · 86.3 · 4.2% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 54.2% ← leak OFF 26.6% BRK 19.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Brandon Lowe L Edge

15.9% 10.2% 7.7% 12.2% C 59 +390

Oneil Cruz L Edge

15.4% 10.7% 21.3% 16.3% C 59 +350

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

11.5% 8.3% 12.8% 11.1% D 46 +625

Spencer Horwitz L Edge

7.1% 10.3% 6.3% 7.3% D 42 +625

179

Nick Gonzales R

2.2% 0.0% 4.6% 2.7% D 32 +850

181

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.6% 0.0% 1.1% 2.1% D 32 —

188

Jared Triolo R

3.0% 0.0% 2.4% 2.5% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.2% usage) carries Yamamoto's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 55.3% ← leak BRK 29.0% OFF 15.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Shohei Ohtani L Edge

19.8% 11.5% 16.1% 16.6% C+ 66 +210

Max Muncy L Edge

16.3% 14.3% 8.7% 13.9% C+ 64 +255

Andy Pages R

7.4% 8.2% 7.9% 7.7% C 51 +400

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Mookie Betts R

8.8% 4.3% 8.3% 7.7% D 49 +500

Freddie Freeman L Edge

9.2% 8.3% 8.1% 8.8% D 46 +425

106

Teoscar Hernandez R

9.2% 10.4% 6.9% 9.2% D 41 +475

109

Kyle Tucker L Edge

8.7% 3.1% 1.3% 5.9% D 41 +500

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.3% usage) carries Chandler's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lowe Cruz Ohtani Muncy Pages Betts

Legend

attack side — vs Yamamoto fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Oneil Cruz +350 · 59

Max Muncy +255 · 64

Brandon Lowe +390 · 59

Shohei Ohtani +210 · 66

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 6 mph out 84°F open

+10

↑

6 mph · out

84°F

7:10p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

80°F

8:10p

↑

4 mph · out

78°F

9:10p

↑

4 mph · out

76°F

10:10p

↑

3 mph · out

75°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.18× 84°F, wind 6 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · RHP 0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 59 C +390 COOL 13 0.227 91.2 9.1% 25.9%vs RHP 392 17.2% 25.0% 29.0% 28

2 Oneil Cruz 59 C +350 WARM 14 0.214 96.0 10.4% 35.3%vs RHP 414 24.1% 50.0% 22.1% 3

3 Bryan Reynolds 46 D +625 COOL 69 0.165 90.6 8.6% 16.7%vs RHP 409 11.2% 0.0% 11.2% 36

4 Spencer Horwitz 42 D +625 COOL 94 0.150 86.9 7.1% 15.4%vs RHP 395 10.1% 0.0% 10.0% 27

5 Nick Gonzales 32 D +850 COOL 179 0.094 86.3 4.2% 10.6%vs RHP 397 6.7% 0.0% 8.3% 27

6 Jake Mangum 32 D — WARM 181 0.089 85.5 3.8% 10.3%vs RHP 393 4.8% 9.1% 8.1% 33

7 Jared Triolo 31 D — WARM 188 0.070 87.6 4.2% 9.5%vs RHP 407 1.5% 11.1% 8.2% 27

vs Bubba Chandler · RHP 0.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.63 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani ✶ 66 C+ +210 · 4 0.262 93.5 9.9% 26.9%vs RHP 405 20.3% 23.1% 30.8% 38

2 Max Muncy 64 C+ +255 · 6 0.246 90.5 9.2% 27.2%vs RHP 412 20.3% 30.0% 30.9% 46

3 Andy Pages 51 C +400 · 41 0.186 88.9 6.9% 19.1%vs RHP 390 14.4% 23.1% 15.4% 43

4 Mookie Betts 49 D +500 COOL 52 0.175 90.5 6.7% 16.7%vs RHP 390 11.8% 23.1% 13.7% 44

5 Freddie Freeman 46 D +425 COOL 71 0.165 89.7 7.2% 14.9%vs RHP 398 10.5% 0.0% 10.7% 38

6 Teoscar Hernandez 41 D +475 WARM 106 0.151 89.8 7.1% 17.6%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 28

7 Kyle Tucker 41 D +500 COOL 109 0.136 88.8 6.0% 11.2%vs RHP 392 7.6% 8.3% 8.3% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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