TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ KC

Kauffman Stadium is live · 1.10×

DET @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 8:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 5 mph cross 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

7:10p

-3 ↑

8:10p

-3 ↑

9:10p

+0 ↑

10:10p

-1 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +0

Best of game Jac Caglianone conv 26 · vs Melton ⟷ Colt Keith conv 10 · vs Cameron → edge: Jac Caglianone

ATTACK Troy Melton RHP · DET

leak 75

0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jac Caglianone — C ●●●●○

2 Vinnie Pasquantino +525 D ●●●○○

3 Michael Massey +575 D ●●○○○

FADE Noah Cameron LHP · KC

leak 49

0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.18 · stingy — thin edge

1 Colt Keith — D ●●○○○

2 Gleyber Torres +750 D ●○○○○

3 Dillon Dingler +500 C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jac Caglianone: 14.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Jac Caglianone ✶ vs Melton Edge — 0.216 · 93.2 · 9.0% 25.0% 27.3% F B O C 55

· DET Dillon Dingler COOL vs Cameron Edge +500 0.235 · 88.9 · 9.2% 0.0% 14.5% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino HOT vs Melton Edge +525 0.124 · 89.0 · 6.1% 25.0% 13.1% F B O D 38

· KC Michael Massey vs Melton Edge +575 0.168 · 89.8 · 6.0% 16.7% 13.7% F B O D 42

· KC Carter Jensen vs Melton Edge +500 0.179 · 90.6 · 7.5% 9.1% 11.5% F B O D 45

· DET Colt Keith vs Cameron — 0.150 · 88.8 · 7.4% 11.1% 8.4% F B O D 40

· DET Gleyber Torres COOL vs Cameron Edge +750 0.130 · 86.1 · 7.5% 8.3% 7.5% F B O D 39

· KC Bobby Witt COOL vs Melton — 0.171 · 92.6 · 8.1% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 43

· DET Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Cameron Edge +425 0.187 · 89.3 · 10.2% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 48

· KC Salvador Perez vs Melton +500 0.149 · 88.9 · 7.4% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 37

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle vs Cameron +625 0.141 · 88.1 · 7.3% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 40

· KC Isaac Collins vs Melton Edge +750 0.122 · 88.6 · 5.6% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 34

· KC Nick Loftin COOL vs Melton +850 0.136 · 86.9 · 4.8% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 35

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Cameron — 0.104 · 85.7 · 4.4% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 49.8% ← leak BRK 29.0% OFF 21.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Dillon Dingler R Edge

12.1% 8.6% 6.5% 10.5% C 53 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Spencer Torkelson R Edge

13.5% 11.0% 12.5% 12.8% D 48 +425

121

Colt Keith L

6.3% 15.2% 3.2% 7.1% D 40 —

123

Kevin Mcgonigle L

8.3% 6.4% 1.5% 6.8% D 40 +625

133

Gleyber Torres R Edge

8.3% 5.4% 0.0% 6.8% D 39 +750

195

Zach Mckinstry L

3.3% 1.6% 0.0% 2.4% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.8% usage) carries Cameron's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 65.5% ← leak BRK 23.3% OFF 11.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jac Caglianone L Edge

13.0% 17.8% 11.5% 14.3% C 55 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Carter Jensen L Edge

9.9% 11.0% 9.6% 10.2% D 45 +500

Bobby Witt R

12.3% 10.2% 12.8% 11.6% D 43 —

Michael Massey L Edge

7.6% 7.0% 1.8% 6.2% D 42 +575

135

Vinnie Pasquantino L Edge

7.7% 5.0% 9.1% 7.2% D 38 +525

145

Salvador Perez R

13.7% 6.3% 8.6% 9.9% D 37 +500

161

Nick Loftin R

5.6% 1.9% 0.0% 4.0% D 35 +850

167

Isaac Collins S Edge

6.1% 9.7% 2.3% 5.9% D 34 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.5% usage) carries Melton's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caglianone Massey Pasquantino

Legend

attack side — vs Melton fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jac Caglianone — · 55

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.00× Wind 5 mph cross 84°F open

↑

5 mph · cross

84°F

7:10p · peak

-3

↑

5 mph · in

82°F

8:10p

-3

↑

5 mph · in

80°F

9:10p

↑

4 mph · cross

77°F

10:10p

-1

↑

5 mph · cross

75°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.10× 84°F, wind 5 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Noah Cameron · LHP 0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.18 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 53 C +500 COOL 30 0.235 88.9 9.2% 17.9%vs LHP 398 19.7% 0.0% 14.5% 36

2 Spencer Torkelson 48 D +425 COOL 60 0.187 89.3 10.2% 9.7%vs LHP 394 14.8% 0.0% 10.3% 26

3 Colt Keith 40 D — WARM 121 0.150 88.8 7.4% 10.0% 385 6.7% 11.1% 8.4% 22

4 Kevin Mcgonigle 40 D +625 · 123 0.141 88.1 7.3% 7.9%vs LHP 397 20.0% 0.0% 7.6% 42

5 Gleyber Torres 39 D +750 COOL 133 0.130 86.1 7.5% 12.5%vs LHP 393 9.9% 8.3% 7.5% 42

6 Zach Mckinstry 30 D — COOL 195 0.104 85.7 4.4% 0.0%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 28

vs Troy Melton · RHP 0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone ✶ 55 C — · 26 0.216 93.2 9.0% 30.6%vs RHP 417 15.0% 25.0% 27.3% 38

2 Carter Jensen 45 D +500 · 77 0.179 90.6 7.5% 17.1%vs RHP 394 13.9% 9.1% 11.5% 25

3 Bobby Witt 43 D — COOL 88 0.171 92.6 8.1% 16.9%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 35

4 Michael Massey 42 D +575 · 91 0.168 89.8 6.0% 10.3%vs RHP 399 8.0% 16.7% 13.7% 29

5 Vinnie Pasquantino 38 D +525 HOT 135 0.124 89.0 6.1% 11.3%vs RHP 395 8.8% 25.0% 13.1% 12

6 Salvador Perez 37 D +500 · 145 0.149 88.9 7.4% 17.6%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 31

7 Nick Loftin 35 D +850 COOL 161 0.136 86.9 4.8% 10.0%vs RHP 397 7.9% 0.0% 7.1% 26

8 Isaac Collins 34 D +750 WARM 167 0.122 88.6 5.6% 8.2%vs RHP 394 5.6% 0.0% 7.4% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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