TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ TEX

Globe Life Field is live · 1.36×

LAA @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 8:15p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 6 mph out 102°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+10 ↑

7:15p

+11 ↑

8:15p

+8 ↑

9:15p

+4 ↑

10:15p

+7 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 8:15p at +11

Best of game Mike Trout conv 17 · vs Gore ⟷ Joc Pederson conv 26 · vs Detmers → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK MacKenzie Gore LHP · TEX

leak 85

1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · leakiest side of this game

1 Mike Trout +425 C ●●●○○

2 Josh Lowe +750 D ●●○○○

3 Zach Neto +400 C ●●○○○

FADE Reid Detmers LHP · LAA

leak 59

1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.03 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joc Pederson — C+ ●●●●○

2 Corey Seager +370 C ●●●○○

3 Jake Burger +400 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: 11.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 22.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Detmers — 0.244 · 92.2 · 9.6% 22.2% 29.4% F B O C+ 60

· TEX Corey Seager vs Detmers +370 0.185 · 91.5 · 11.2% 25.0% 14.2% F B O C 53

· TEX Jake Burger COOL vs Detmers Edge +400 0.185 · 89.9 · 9.4% 16.7% 22.2% F B O C 52

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Gore Edge +425 0.196 · 90.2 · 11.8% 15.4% 18.4% F B O C 56

· LAA Zach Neto COOL vs Gore Edge +400 0.185 · 89.3 · 10.1% 7.7% 12.6% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· LAA Josh Lowe COOL vs Gore +750 0.156 · 89.5 · 8.8% 15.4% 11.9% F B O D 46

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Detmers Edge +400 0.206 · 89.4 · 8.0% 7.7% 14.1% F B O D 49

· TEX Brandon Nimmo vs Detmers +475 0.162 · 92.3 · 9.3% 7.7% 11.0% F B O D 46

· LAA Nolan Schanuel vs Gore +950 0.111 · 87.6 · 4.6% 8.3% 7.5% F B O D 35

· TEX Ezequiel Duran COOL vs Detmers Edge +700 0.166 · 88.5 · 7.2% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 42

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Gore Edge — 0.121 · 87.6 · 7.7% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 39

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Gore Edge +850 0.127 · 88.0 · 7.5% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 40

· TEX Evan Carter vs Detmers +850 0.127 · 87.8 · 6.9% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 59.2% ← leak BRK 28.8% OFF 12.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Mike Trout R Edge

14.6% 22.4% 11.1% 15.7% C 56 +425

Zach Neto R Edge

13.8% 7.6% 9.8% 11.5% C 52 +400

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Josh Lowe L

11.5% 5.0% 5.9% 8.7% D 46 +750

124

Vaughn Grissom R Edge

8.3% 6.1% 0.0% 6.4% D 40 +850

129

Oswald Peraza R Edge

6.1% 6.9% 10.3% 6.9% D 39 —

160

Nolan Schanuel L

2.6% 3.5% 0.0% 2.4% D 35 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.2% usage) carries Gore's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 46.9% ← leak BRK 43.3% OFF 9.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Joc Pederson L

14.0% 12.3% 3.5% 11.1% C+ 60 —

Corey Seager L

13.7% 14.9% 17.6% 14.8% C 53 +370

Jake Burger R Edge

10.1% 11.8% 11.8% 10.9% C 52 +400

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Wyatt Langford R Edge

5.3% 10.8% 14.3% 7.8% D 49 +400

Brandon Nimmo L

8.1% 17.0% 7.8% 10.4% D 46 +475

Ezequiel Duran R Edge

8.1% 5.5% 0.0% 6.2% D 42 +700

152

Evan Carter L

7.9% 4.3% 0.0% 5.7% D 37 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.9% usage) carries Detmers's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Trout Lowe Pederson Seager Burger

Legend

attack side — vs Gore fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Joc Pederson — · 60

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 7:15p · roof retractable

Park 1.04× Wind 6 mph out 102°F retractable

+10

↑

6 mph · out

102°F

7:15p

+11

↑

8 mph · out

97°F

8:15p · peak

↑

10 mph · slight_out

92°F

9:15p

↑

12 mph · slight_out

88°F

10:15p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

87°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.36× 102°F, wind 6 mph SW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs MacKenzie Gore · LHP 1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 56 C +425 COOL 23 0.196 90.2 11.8% 19.2%vs LHP 409 15.1% 15.4% 18.4% 31

2 Zach Neto 52 C +400 COOL 37 0.185 89.3 10.1% 14.7%vs LHP 402 15.7% 7.7% 12.6% 31

3 Josh Lowe 46 D +750 COOL 65 0.156 89.5 8.8% 0.0%vs LHP 397 10.6% 15.4% 11.9% 19

4 Vaughn Grissom 40 D +850 COOL 124 0.127 88.0 7.5% 0.0%vs LHP 390 8.2% 0.0% 6.9% 24

5 Oswald Peraza 39 D — COOL 129 0.121 87.6 7.7% 23.8%vs LHP 386 5.6% 0.0% 10.0% 12

6 Nolan Schanuel 35 D +950 · 160 0.111 87.6 4.6% 12.5%vs LHP 375 6.5% 8.3% 7.5% 35

vs Reid Detmers · LHP 1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.03 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 60 C+ — WARM 10 0.244 92.2 9.6% 25.3% 396 21.6% 22.2% 29.4% 18

2 Corey Seager 53 C +370 · 32 0.185 91.5 11.2% 16.7%vs LHP 395 17.6% 25.0% 14.2% 34

3 Jake Burger 52 C +400 COOL 35 0.185 89.9 9.4% 31.8%vs LHP 400 15.8% 16.7% 22.2% 26

4 Wyatt Langford 49 D +400 COOL 51 0.206 89.4 8.0% 20.0%vs LHP 398 15.9% 7.7% 14.1% 29

5 Brandon Nimmo 46 D +475 WARM 70 0.162 92.3 9.3% 20.8%vs LHP 403 10.3% 7.7% 11.0% 36

6 Ezequiel Duran 42 D +700 COOL 95 0.166 88.5 7.2% 10.5%vs LHP 393 11.8% 0.0% 10.0% 27

7 Evan Carter 37 D +850 · 152 0.127 87.8 6.9% 0.0%vs LHP 374 7.4% 0.0% 6.4% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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