TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ AZ

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CIN @ AZ

Chase Field · 9:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 8 mph slight_out 110°F Roof retractable

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6:40p

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7:40p

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Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 26 · vs Lodolo ⟷ Sal Stewart conv 14 · vs Rodriguez → edge: Nolan Arenado

ATTACK Nick Lodolo LHP · CIN

leak 64

1.51 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.79 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado +525 C ●●●●○

2 Corbin Carroll +475 C ●●●○○

3 Gabriel Moreno +750 D ●●○○○

FADE Eduardo Rodriguez LHP · AZ

leak 32

0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.47 · stingy — thin edge

1 Sal Stewart +500 C ●●○○○

2 Tyler Stephenson +525 D ●●○○○

3 Elly De La Cruz +500 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Nolan Arenado: 6.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 27.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· AZ Nolan Arenado ✶ COOL vs Lodolo Edge +525 0.200 · 85.2 · 7.7% 27.3% 25.7% F B O C 51

· AZ Corbin Carroll COOL vs Lodolo +475 0.238 · 91.6 · 10.0% 16.7% 15.9% F B O C 56

· CIN Sal Stewart COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +500 0.217 · 90.1 · 10.3% 14.3% 13.9% F B O C 51

· CIN Elly De La Cruz COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +500 0.209 · 93.8 · 10.5% 7.1% 14.1% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Lodolo Edge +750 0.163 · 89.3 · 7.7% 16.7% 10.9% F B O D 44

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs Lodolo Edge +750 0.142 · 87.5 · 5.6% 11.1% 13.1% F B O D 38

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Rodriguez Edge +525 0.167 · 91.2 · 10.1% 9.1% 12.8% F B O D 44

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Rodriguez Edge +400 0.206 · 88.7 · 9.7% 0.0% 21.1% F B O D 43

· AZ Tim Tawa vs Lodolo Edge +625 0.150 · 90.7 · 8.2% 10.0% 7.4% F B O D 42

· CIN Matt Mclain vs Rodriguez Edge +750 0.151 · 87.8 · 9.0% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 39

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Rodriguez +525 0.216 · 88.7 · 8.9% 0.0% 12.6% F B O D 45

· CIN Tj Friedl COOL vs Rodriguez — 0.079 · 87.4 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 27

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Lodolo Edge +950 0.127 · 87.3 · 5.1% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 34

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Lodolo Edge +850 0.112 · 88.0 · 7.6% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 61.1% ← leak OFF 26.2% BRK 12.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Sal Stewart R Edge

16.4% 8.8% 9.3% 13.0% C 51 +500

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

17.7% 4.7% 10.4% 13.2% C 50 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Jj Bleday L

11.6% 5.5% 6.8% 9.2% D 45 +525

Tyler Stephenson R Edge

15.8% 5.3% 7.5% 12.3% D 44 +525

Eugenio Suarez R Edge

13.4% 5.0% 7.0% 11.2% D 43 +400

126

Matt Mclain R Edge

12.0% 0.0% 9.6% 10.0% D 39 +750

199

Tj Friedl L

2.6% 0.0% 3.8% 2.4% D 27 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.1% usage) carries Rodriguez's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.1% ← leak BRK 24.4% OFF 23.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Corbin Carroll L

11.0% 14.7% 9.2% 11.7% C 56 +475

Nolan Arenado R Edge

9.9% 2.0% 5.9% 6.9% C 51 +525

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Gabriel Moreno R Edge

7.5% 6.8% 7.9% 7.4% D 44 +750

Tim Tawa R Edge

9.3% 10.5% 4.8% 9.0% D 42 +625

137

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.8% 2.9% 1.4% 3.7% D 38 +750

155

Ryan Waldschmidt R Edge

7.5% 6.8% 0.0% 6.5% D 36 +850

169

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.0% 1.5% 2.2% 3.1% D 34 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.1% usage) carries Lodolo's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stewart Carroll Arenado Moreno

Legend

attack side — vs Lodolo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Nolan Arenado +525 · 51

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.92× Wind 8 mph slight_out 110°F retractable

↑

8 mph · slight_out

110°F

6:40p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

109°F

7:40p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

103°F

8:40p · peak

↑

6 mph · out

96°F

9:40p

↑

5 mph · out

89°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.19× 110°F, wind 8 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Eduardo Rodriguez · LHP 0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.47 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart 51 C +500 COOL 42 0.217 90.1 10.3% 30.4%vs LHP 396 16.8% 14.3% 13.9% 40

2 Elly De La Cruz 50 C +500 COOL 48 0.209 93.8 10.5% 37.5%vs LHP 396 15.7% 7.1% 14.1% 32

3 Jj Bleday 45 D +525 COOL 74 0.216 88.7 8.9% 25.0%vs LHP 388 16.7% 0.0% 12.6% 32

4 Tyler Stephenson 44 D +525 · 82 0.167 91.2 10.1% 5.3%vs LHP 392 9.0% 9.1% 12.8% 22

5 Eugenio Suarez 43 D +400 · 87 0.206 88.7 9.7% 26.7%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 21.1% 30

6 Matt Mclain 39 D +750 WARM 126 0.151 87.8 9.0% 22.7%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 28

7 Tj Friedl 27 D — COOL 199 0.079 87.4 4.5% 4.8% 374 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 7

vs Nick Lodolo · LHP 1.51 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.79 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 56 C +475 COOL 24 0.238 91.6 10.0% 17.9%vs LHP 402 13.9% 16.7% 15.9% 35

2 Nolan Arenado ✶ 51 C +525 COOL 38 0.200 85.2 7.7% 30.4%vs LHP 390 15.4% 27.3% 25.7% 30

3 Gabriel Moreno 44 D +750 · 83 0.163 89.3 7.7% 17.4%vs LHP 398 9.9% 16.7% 10.9% 40

4 Tim Tawa 42 D +625 · 99 0.150 90.7 8.2% 0.0%vs LHP 402 6.7% 10.0% 7.4% 31

5 Ildemaro Vargas 38 D +750 WARM 137 0.142 87.5 5.6% 23.1%vs LHP 396 5.4% 11.1% 13.1% 31

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 36 D +850 COOL 155 0.112 88.0 7.6% 0.0%vs LHP 419 2.7% 0.0% 6.5% 28

7 Geraldo Perdomo 34 D +950 COOL 169 0.127 87.3 5.1% 3.6%vs LHP 383 7.1% 0.0% 7.0% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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