TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ MIA

Suppressed air · 0.76×

WSH @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 7:10p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.85× Wind 12 mph in 80°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-14 ↑

7:10p

-12 ↑

8:10p

-8 ↑

9:10p

-5 ↑

10:10p

-4 ↑

11:10p

conditions build late — the 11:10p window peaks -4

Best of game Javier Sanoja conv 15 · vs Lord ⟷ Jacob Young conv 9 · vs Gusto → edge: Cj Abrams

ATTACK Brad Lord RHP · WSH

leak 95

1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.33 · leakiest side of this game

1 Javier Sanoja — D ●●○○○

2 Owen Caissie +525 D ●●○○○

3 Heriberto Hernández +525 D ●●○○○

FADE Ryan Gusto RHP · MIA

leak 46

1.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jacob Young — D ●○○○○

2 Dylan Crews +625 D ●○○○○

3 Daylen Lile +500 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Cj Abrams: 10.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Lord — 0.147 · 86.6 · 3.9% 22.2% 8.3% F B O D 32

· MIA Owen Caissie COOL vs Lord Edge +525 0.201 · 91.3 · 10.0% 10.0% 15.3% F B O D 46

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Lord +525 0.219 · 91.6 · 9.0% 0.0% 19.8% F B O D 42

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Gusto — 0.151 · 88.3 · 7.2% 10.0% 8.7% F B O D 35

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Gusto +625 0.147 · 90.6 · 9.4% 10.0% 8.4% F B O D 40

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Lord Edge +625 0.105 · 87.1 · 4.8% 9.1% 7.1% F B O D 28

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Gusto Edge +500 0.162 · 88.5 · 8.5% 8.3% 7.8% F B O D 38

· WSH Cj Abrams ✶ COOL vs Gusto Edge — 0.250 · 89.4 · 9.3% 0.0% 14.5% F B O D 49

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs Gusto Edge — 0.158 · 88.4 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 34

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Lord +850 0.140 · 89.1 · 6.2% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 32

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Lord Edge — 0.098 · 87.0 · 4.8% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 25

· WSH Nasim Nunez vs Gusto Edge — 0.036 · 84.9 · 1.8% 0.0% 5.1% F B O D 15

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 54.6% ← leak BRK 30.0% OFF 15.4% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Cj Abrams L Edge

10.6% 9.2% 11.8% 10.3% D 49 —

122

Dylan Crews R

6.8% 21.6% 14.3% 10.2% D 40 +625

140

Daylen Lile L Edge

8.1% 13.0% 4.3% 8.5% D 38 +500

159

Jacob Young R

7.8% 3.6% 2.9% 6.0% D 35 —

168

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

6.2% 3.1% 2.4% 4.7% D 34 —

208

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 15 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.6% usage) carries Gusto's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 59.5% BRK 35.5% OFF 5.0% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Owen Caissie L Edge

16.9% 9.3% 18.2% 15.0% D 46 +525

Heriberto Hernández R

11.7% 13.2% 14.3% 12.4% D 42 +525

180

Javier Sanoja R

2.4% 3.1% 0.0% 2.3% D 32 —

185

Otto Lopez R

8.9% 3.8% 3.0% 6.2% D 32 +850

197

Jakob Marsee L Edge

3.2% 1.9% 7.9% 3.5% D 28 +625

205

Xavier Edwards S Edge

4.2% 2.3% 2.7% 3.5% D 25 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Lord's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Abrams Sanoja

Legend

attack side — vs Lord fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.85× Wind 12 mph in 80°F retractable

-14

↑

12 mph · in

80°F

7:10p

-12

↑

10 mph · in

79°F

8:10p

-8

↑

7 mph · cross

78°F

9:10p

-5

↑

5 mph · cross

78°F

10:10p

-4

↑

3 mph · cross

77°F

11:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.76× 80°F, wind 12 mph SSE (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ryan Gusto · RHP 1.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cj Abrams ✶ 49 D — COOL 50 0.250 89.4 9.3% 29.9%vs RHP 395 33.3% 0.0% 14.5% 31

2 Dylan Crews 40 D +625 · 122 0.147 90.6 9.4% 12.5%vs RHP 407 16.1% 10.0% 8.4% 28

3 Daylen Lile 38 D +500 WARM 140 0.162 88.5 8.5% 12.3%vs RHP 400 9.7% 8.3% 7.8% 34

4 Jacob Young 35 D — COOL 159 0.151 88.3 7.2% 13.5%vs RHP 399 7.9% 10.0% 8.7% 31

5 Keibert Ruiz 34 D — · 168 0.158 88.4 6.3% 7.3%vs RHP 377 8.3% 0.0% 7.0% 19

6 Nasim Nunez 15 D — WARM 208 0.036 84.9 1.8% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 26

vs Brad Lord · RHP 1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.33 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Owen Caissie 46 D +525 COOL 66 0.201 91.3 10.0% 27.1%vs RHP 398 14.5% 10.0% 15.3% 18

2 Heriberto Hernández 42 D +525 · 90 0.219 91.6 9.0% 20.4%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 19.8% 22

3 Javier Sanoja 32 D — WARM 180 0.147 86.6 3.9% 7.3%vs RHP 378 7.1% 22.2% 8.3% 32

4 Otto Lopez 32 D +850 COOL 185 0.140 89.1 6.2% 10.0%vs RHP 402 6.5% 0.0% 6.5% 43

5 Jakob Marsee 28 D +625 COOL 197 0.105 87.1 4.8% 9.1%vs RHP 381 6.9% 9.1% 7.1% 36

6 Xavier Edwards 25 D — COOL 205 0.098 87.0 4.8% 2.7%vs RHP 396 4.1% 0.0% 6.3% 40

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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