TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ SD

Suppressed air · 0.98×

MIN @ SD

Petco Park · 9:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 6 mph slight_out 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

6:40p

+0 ↑

7:40p

+0 ↑

8:40p

-1 ↑

9:40p

-2 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +1

Best of game Jackson Merrill conv 20 · vs Prielipp ⟷ Josh Bell conv 20 · vs Proxy → edge: Byron Buxton

ATTACK Connor Prielipp LHP · MIN

leak 90

1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Merrill — D ●●●○○

2 Gavin Sheets — D ●●●○○

3 Xander Bogaerts — D ●●○○○

FADE SD Bullpen Proxy · ATL

leak 49

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Josh Bell — D ●●●○○

2 Kody Clemens — C ●●●○○

3 Brooks Lee — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Byron Buxton: Match 14.3% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Kody Clemens COOL vs Proxy — 0.229 · 92.3 · 11.4% 20.0% 17.7% F B O C 54

· — Byron Buxton ✶ COOL vs Proxy — 0.268 · 90.3 · 16.9% 0.0% 14.3% F B O C+ 63

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Prielipp — 0.167 · 90.6 · 9.5% 25.0% 14.0% F B O D 46

· — Josh Bell vs Proxy — 0.174 · 89.9 · 9.8% 25.0% 14.0% F B O D 46

· SD Gavin Sheets vs Prielipp — 0.182 · 87.5 · 7.6% 22.2% 12.4% F B O D 42

· — Brooks Lee vs Proxy — 0.174 · 87.8 · 3.6% 18.2% 10.4% F B O D 37

· SD Xander Bogaerts HOT vs Prielipp Edge — 0.109 · 88.6 · 7.0% 16.7% 9.1% F B O D 34

· SD Ty France vs Prielipp Edge — 0.218 · 92.3 · 9.1% 8.3% 13.6% F B O D 48

· SD Manny Machado COOL vs Prielipp Edge — 0.197 · 90.8 · 8.9% 8.3% 11.9% F B O D 47

· SD Fernando Tatis HOT vs Prielipp Edge — 0.154 · 92.5 · 9.7% 0.0% 19.8% F B O D 40

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Prielipp — 0.073 · 87.3 · 5.4% 8.3% 6.8% F B O D 28

· — Luke Keaschall COOL vs Proxy — 0.105 · 84.8 · 3.0% 8.3% 6.1% F B O D 27

· — Royce Lewis COOL vs Proxy — 0.179 · 90.2 · 12.1% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 47

· — Trevor Larnach COOL vs Proxy — 0.153 · 87.4 · 7.6% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 37

· SD Freddy Fermin COOL vs Prielipp Edge — 0.115 · 87.6 · 5.7% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 31

· — Victor Caratini vs Proxy — 0.105 · 89.6 · 6.7% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 46.8% FB 42.3% OFF 10.8% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Ty France R Edge

10.3% 9.9% 10.0% 10.0% D 48 —

Manny Machado R Edge

6.1% 11.7% 9.3% 9.8% D 47 —

Jackson Merrill L

10.4% 13.3% 6.8% 11.1% D 46 —

Gavin Sheets L

5.9% 9.8% 1.7% 7.2% D 42 —

114

Fernando Tatis R Edge

13.2% 11.2% 15.9% 12.2% D 40 —

165

Xander Bogaerts R Edge

4.6% 7.4% 3.4% 6.3% D 34 —

189

Freddy Fermin R Edge

5.0% 2.9% 9.1% 3.9% D 31 —

198

Jake Cronenworth L

2.6% 3.9% 3.6% 3.6% D 28 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Prielipp's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for SD Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Merrill Sheets Buxton Clemens Bell Lee

Legend

attack side — vs Prielipp fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.89× Wind 6 mph slight_out 80°F open

↑

6 mph · slight_out

80°F

6:40p · peak

↑

5 mph · slight_out

78°F

7:40p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

77°F

8:40p

-1

↑

4 mph · slight_out

76°F

9:40p

-2

↑

3 mph · slight_out

75°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.98× 80°F, wind 6 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Connor Prielipp · LHP 1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 48 D — · 56 0.218 92.3 9.1% 17.6%vs LHP 392 15.3% 8.3% 13.6% 32

2 Manny Machado 47 D — COOL 63 0.197 90.8 8.9% 15.4%vs LHP 397 18.0% 8.3% 11.9% 37

3 Jackson Merrill 46 D — WARM 67 0.167 90.6 9.5% 11.1%vs LHP 412 15.0% 25.0% 14.0% 30

4 Gavin Sheets 42 D — WARM 92 0.182 87.5 7.6% 0.0%vs LHP 395 10.9% 22.2% 12.4% 18

5 Fernando Tatis 40 D — HOT 114 0.154 92.5 9.7% 37.5%vs LHP 413 0.0% 0.0% 19.8% 38

6 Xander Bogaerts 34 D — HOT 165 0.109 88.6 7.0% 5.3%vs LHP 400 8.4% 16.7% 9.1% 30

7 Freddy Fermin 31 D — COOL 189 0.115 87.6 5.7% 13.3%vs LHP 382 2.8% 0.0% 7.7% 12

8 Jake Cronenworth 28 D — COOL 198 0.073 87.3 5.4% 14.3%vs LHP 392 2.5% 8.3% 6.8% 34

vs SD Bullpen Proxy 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Byron Buxton ✶ 63 C+ — COOL 12 0.268 90.3 16.9% 20.8% 402 26.7% 0.0% 14.3% 14

2 Kody Clemens 54 C — COOL 43 0.229 92.3 11.4% 16.8% 391 17.3% 20.0% 17.7% 29

3 Royce Lewis 47 D — COOL 86 0.179 90.2 12.1% 12.7% 400 15.5% 0.0% 9.4% 31

4 Josh Bell 46 D — · 89 0.174 89.9 9.8% 13.8% 405 12.0% 25.0% 14.0% 40

5 Brooks Lee 37 D — · 171 0.174 87.8 3.6% 13.6% 370 14.7% 18.2% 10.4% 36

6 Trevor Larnach 37 D — COOL 172 0.153 87.4 7.6% 11.5% 397 9.2% 0.0% 7.9% 24

7 Victor Caratini 30 D — · 202 0.105 89.6 6.7% 11.1% 404 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 15

8 Luke Keaschall 27 D — COOL 206 0.105 84.8 3.0% 5.5% 371 6.4% 8.3% 6.1% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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