TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ TEX

Globe Life Field is live · 1.36×

SEA @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 8:05p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.91× Wind 12 mph out 93°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+8 ↑

7:05p

+8 ↑

8:05p

+8 ↑

9:05p

+8 ↑

10:05p

+8 ↑

11:05p

conditions hold steady across the window · +8 FIT

Best of game Joc Pederson conv 39 · vs Miller ⟷ Weston Wilson conv 25 · vs Gore → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Bryce Miller RHP · SEA

leak 72

1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · leakiest side of this game

1 Joc Pederson +370 C ●●●●●

2 Wyatt Langford — D ●●●●○

3 Jake Burger +525 D ●●●○○

FADE MacKenzie Gore LHP · TEX

leak 48

1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · stingy — thin edge

1 Weston Wilson +750 D ●●●●○

2 Cole Young +625 D ●●●●○

3 Julio Rodríguez +525 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: 11.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 50.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Miller Edge +370 0.244 · 92.0 · 9.2% 50.0% 27.7% F B O C 55

· SEA Dominic Canzone COOL vs Gore +575 0.245 · 92.8 · 11.2% 0.0% 17.0% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs Miller — 0.228 · 88.9 · 7.7% 33.3% 24.7% F B O D 48

· SEA Weston Wilson HOT vs Gore Edge +750 0.161 · 86.7 · 7.7% 33.3% 17.2% F B O D 43

· SEA Cole Young vs Gore +625 0.147 · 88.4 · 6.8% 33.3% 13.3% F B O D 40

· TEX Jake Burger vs Miller +525 0.182 · 90.0 · 8.8% 22.2% 20.4% F B O D 45

· SEA Julio Rodríguez HOT vs Gore Edge +525 0.168 · 90.3 · 8.9% 20.0% 16.3% F B O D 45

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Miller +750 0.167 · 88.4 · 6.8% 11.1% 18.0% F B O D 39

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Miller Edge +700 0.149 · 87.7 · 6.7% 16.7% 8.9% F B O D 36

· SEA Randy Arozarena COOL vs Gore Edge +525 0.162 · 91.3 · 8.2% 11.1% 9.6% F B O D 41

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Miller Edge +525 0.163 · 92.4 · 9.4% 11.1% 8.8% F B O D 41

· SEA Cal Raleigh COOL vs Gore Edge +500 0.140 · 87.9 · 10.0% 11.1% 7.9% F B O D 40

· SEA Colt Emerson COOL vs Gore +850 0.170 · 86.5 · 7.1% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 38

· SEA Mitch Garver HOT vs Gore Edge +575 0.132 · 90.5 · 8.6% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 38

· TEX Elias Díaz COOL vs Miller +800 0.183 · 86.3 · 6.5% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 37

· TEX Nicky Lopez COOL vs Miller Edge — 0.045 · 85.4 · — 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 16

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Gore +950 0.098 · 87.5 · 6.3% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.9% ← leak BRK 30.3% OFF 10.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Dominic Canzone L

16.7% 17.2% 7.8% 14.4% C 52 +575

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Julio Rodríguez R Edge

10.1% 8.1% 8.6% 9.3% D 45 +525

114

Weston Wilson R Edge

3.1% 20.0% 0.0% 6.7% D 43 +750

131

Randy Arozarena R Edge

7.8% 9.1% 4.4% 7.7% D 41 +525

139

Cole Young L

4.7% 9.1% 2.2% 5.3% D 40 +625

146

Cal Raleigh S Edge

9.0% 14.3% 13.2% 11.2% D 40 +500

161

Colt Emerson L

5.5% 6.1% 5.6% 5.7% D 38 +850

163

Mitch Garver R Edge

12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% D 38 +575

225

Josh Naylor L

4.4% 7.1% 2.0% 4.6% D 30 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.9% usage) carries Gore's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.4% ← leak OFF 24.0% BRK 22.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Joc Pederson L Edge

15.6% 4.4% 11.1% 11.8% C 55 +370

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Wyatt Langford R

6.3% 13.3% 13.0% 9.0% D 48 —

Jake Burger R

10.1% 10.7% 11.8% 10.8% D 45 +525

132

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

10.1% 10.5% 18.4% 12.4% D 41 +525

149

Ezequiel Duran R

8.0% 0.0% 6.2% 6.3% D 39 +750

179

Elias Díaz R

4.8% 5.3% 8.3% 5.9% D 37 +800

188

Evan Carter L Edge

8.5% 0.0% 5.3% 6.3% D 36 +700

252

Nicky Lopez L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 16 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.4% usage) carries Miller's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rodríguez Wilson Young Pederson Langford Burger Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Miller fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Joc Pederson +370 · 55

Wyatt Langford — · 48

Jake Burger +525 · 45

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof retractable

Park 0.91× Wind 12 mph out 93°F retractable

↑

9 mph · out

93°F

7:05p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

93°F

8:05p

↑

9 mph · out

93°F

9:05p

↑

9 mph · out

93°F

10:05p

↑

9 mph · out

93°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.36× 93°F, wind 12 mph S (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs MacKenzie Gore · LHP 1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 52 C +575 COOL 43 0.245 92.8 11.2% 40.0%vs LHP 400 16.7% 0.0% 17.0% 19

2 Julio Rodríguez 45 D +525 HOT 91 0.168 90.3 8.9% 27.6%vs LHP 410 16.4% 20.0% 16.3% 14

3 Weston Wilson 43 D +750 HOT 114 0.161 86.7 7.7% 22.2%vs LHP 392 10.0% 33.3% 17.2% 9

4 Randy Arozarena 41 D +525 COOL 131 0.162 91.3 8.2% 16.7%vs LHP 393 11.0% 11.1% 9.6% 24

5 Cole Young 40 D +625 WARM 139 0.147 88.4 6.8% 14.8%vs LHP 388 12.2% 33.3% 13.3% 29

6 Cal Raleigh 40 D +500 COOL 146 0.140 87.9 10.0% 12.5%vs LHP 392 12.7% 11.1% 7.9% 20

7 Colt Emerson 38 D +850 COOL 161 0.170 86.5 7.1% 28.6%vs LHP 369 11.4% 0.0% 10.7% 19

8 Mitch Garver 38 D +575 HOT 163 0.132 90.5 8.6% 10.0%vs LHP 390 11.1% 0.0% 8.9% 6

9 Josh Naylor 30 D +950 COOL 225 0.098 87.5 6.3% 5.9%vs LHP 390 7.3% 0.0% 6.1% 30

vs Bryce Miller · RHP 1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 55 C +370 WARM 28 0.244 92.0 9.2% 31.5%vs RHP 395 21.7% 50.0% 27.7% 14

2 Wyatt Langford 48 D — WARM 68 0.228 88.9 7.7% 21.2%vs RHP 402 17.7% 33.3% 24.7% 29

3 Jake Burger 45 D +525 WARM 90 0.182 90.0 8.8% 24.1%vs RHP 400 15.2% 22.2% 20.4% 24

4 Brandon Nimmo 41 D +525 COOL 132 0.163 92.4 9.4% 12.9%vs RHP 404 9.9% 11.1% 8.8% 24

5 Ezequiel Duran 39 D +750 WARM 149 0.167 88.4 6.8% 20.5%vs RHP 385 11.9% 11.1% 18.0% 18

6 Elias Díaz 37 D +800 COOL 179 0.183 86.3 6.5% 0.0%vs RHP 399 15.8% 0.0% 8.4% 16

7 Evan Carter 36 D +700 COOL 188 0.149 87.7 6.7% 15.4%vs RHP 374 10.3% 16.7% 8.9% 19

8 Nicky Lopez 16 D — COOL 252 0.045 85.4 — 7.1%vs RHP 397 2.6% 0.0% 6.5% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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