TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ BAL

Camden Yards is live · 1.42×

ATL @ BAL

Camden Yards · 7:05p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.29× Wind 8 mph slight_out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

+12 ↑

7:05p

+12 ↑

8:05p

+11 ↑

9:05p

+10 ↑

10:05p

+9 ↑

11:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at +12

Best of game Coby Mayo conv 31 · vs Holmes ⟷ Drake Baldwin conv 29 · vs Proxy → edge: Drake Baldwin

ATTACK Grant Holmes RHP · ATL

leak 92

1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.54 · leakiest side of this game

1 Coby Mayo +390 C+ ●●●●●

2 Taylor Ward +475 D ●●●○○

3 Pete Alonso +305 C+ ●●○○○

FADE BAL Bullpen Proxy

leak 41

1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Drake Baldwin +400 C+ ●●●●●

2 Austin Riley +390 C ●●●○○

3 Ozzie Albies +425 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Drake Baldwin: Match 28.6% · 14D pace 30.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Coby Mayo HOT vs Holmes +390 0.206 · 92.3 · 9.7% 33.3% 28.6% F B O C+ 63

· — Drake Baldwin ✶ vs Proxy +400 0.199 · 91.5 · 15.4% 30.0% 28.6% F B O C+ 69

· — Austin Riley HOT vs Proxy +390 0.139 · 90.6 · 11.4% 20.0% 16.7% F B O C 54

· BAL Pete Alonso vs Holmes +305 0.213 · 93.7 · 10.1% 10.0% 21.9% F B O C+ 64

· — Matt Olson COOL vs Proxy +320 0.262 · 92.6 · 13.9% 10.0% 19.8% F B O B 70

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Holmes Edge +320 0.179 · 89.6 · 7.6% 10.0% 15.0% F B O C 55

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Holmes Edge +475 0.126 · 86.9 · 9.3% 0.0% 11.3% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· BAL Taylor Ward vs Holmes +475 0.108 · 89.3 · 6.9% 20.0% 16.0% F B O D 47

· — Ozzie Albies COOL vs Proxy +425 0.168 · 86.8 · 4.1% 20.0% 15.9% F B O D 48

· — Dominic Smith COOL vs Proxy — 0.119 · 87.8 · 5.9% 20.0% 14.0% F B O D 45

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Holmes Edge +625 0.120 · 87.3 · 6.2% 16.7% 14.8% F B O D 45

· — Mike Yastrzemski vs Proxy — 0.131 · 90.3 · 6.4% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 45

· — Mauricio Dubon vs Proxy +700 0.150 · 86.4 · 4.6% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 50.5% ← leak BRK 44.1% OFF 5.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Pete Alonso R

14.3% 7.4% 15.6% 12.4% C+ 64 +305

Coby Mayo R

11.5% 10.9% 10.5% 11.2% C+ 63 +390

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

7.5% 5.5% 7.7% 7.0% C 55 +320

Colton Cowser L Edge

14.9% 10.8% 2.6% 10.5% C 50 +475

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Taylor Ward R

8.0% 1.3% 2.9% 5.6% D 47 +475

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.5% 9.3% 0.0% 4.5% D 45 +625

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.5% usage) carries Holmes's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for BAL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Mayo Ward Taveras Olson Baldwin Riley Albies Smith

Legend

attack side — vs Holmes fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Coby Mayo +390 · 63

Drake Baldwin +400 · 69

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.29× Wind 8 mph slight_out 77°F open

+12

↑

8 mph · slight_out

77°F

7:05p · peak

+12

↑

8 mph · slight_out

75°F

8:05p

+11

↑

8 mph · slight_out

72°F

9:05p

+10

↑

8 mph · slight_out

69°F

10:05p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

67°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.42× 77°F, wind 8 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Grant Holmes · RHP 1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.54 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 64 C+ +305 WARM 11 0.213 93.7 10.1% 28.8%vs RHP 401 18.6% 10.0% 21.9% 21

2 Coby Mayo 63 C+ +390 HOT 12 0.206 92.3 9.7% 10.7%vs RHP 406 15.4% 33.3% 28.6% 10

3 Gunnar Henderson 55 C +320 COOL 30 0.179 89.6 7.6% 16.7%vs RHP 389 16.0% 10.0% 15.0% 26

4 Colton Cowser 50 C +475 WARM 53 0.126 86.9 9.3% 18.6%vs RHP 417 14.0% 0.0% 11.3% 12

5 Taylor Ward 47 D +475 · 69 0.108 89.3 6.9% 5.5%vs RHP 388 6.8% 20.0% 16.0% 25

6 Leody Taveras 45 D +625 WARM 87 0.120 87.3 6.2% 11.4%vs RHP 420 2.9% 16.7% 14.8% 14

vs BAL Bullpen Proxy 1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 70 B +320 COOL 4 0.262 92.6 13.9% 21.1% 408 20.6% 10.0% 19.8% 25

2 Drake Baldwin ✶ 69 C+ +400 · 6 0.199 91.5 15.4% 26.1% 405 19.8% 30.0% 28.6% 35

3 Austin Riley 54 C +390 HOT 48 0.139 90.6 11.4% 11.8% 405 8.9% 20.0% 16.7% 24

4 Ozzie Albies 48 D +425 COOL 91 0.168 86.8 4.1% 10.8% 384 13.7% 20.0% 15.9% 30

5 Dominic Smith 45 D — COOL 114 0.119 87.8 5.9% 9.2% 390 7.9% 20.0% 14.0% 13

6 Mike Yastrzemski 45 D — WARM 116 0.131 90.3 6.4% 9.4% 387 7.8% 0.0% 11.3% 7

7 Mauricio Dubon 40 D +700 · 162 0.150 86.4 4.6% 9.8% 390 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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