TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ PIT

Suppressed air · 0.81×

CHC @ PIT

PNC Park · 6:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.81× Wind 3 mph in 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

-7 ↑

6:40p

-7 ↑

7:40p

-7 ↑

8:40p

-9 ↑

9:40p

-9 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at -7

Best of game Alex Bregman conv 22 · vs Jones ⟷ Nick Gonzales conv 21 · vs Boyd → edge: Seiya Suzuki

ATTACK Jared Jones RHP · PIT

leak 99

1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.38 · leakiest side of this game

1 Alex Bregman +750 D ●●●○○

2 Michael Busch +525 D ●●●○○

3 Seiya Suzuki +525 D ●●●○○

FADE Matthew Boyd LHP · CHC

leak 50

1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.09 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nick Gonzales +850 D ●●●○○

2 Marcell Ozuna +525 D ●●○○○

3 Bryan Reynolds +475 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Seiya Suzuki: 9.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 22.2% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Jones +750 0.119 · 88.1 · 5.5% 33.3% 10.2% F B O D 32

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Boyd Edge +850 0.102 · 85.8 · 5.2% 33.3% 8.3% F B O D 30

· CHC Michael Busch vs Jones Edge +525 0.161 · 88.3 · 8.5% 22.2% 18.1% F B O D 40

· CHC Seiya Suzuki ✶ vs Jones +525 0.208 · 89.2 · 8.3% 22.2% 17.5% F B O D 44

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Jones Edge +425 0.210 · 89.7 · 9.3% 11.1% 16.5% F B O D 46

· PIT Marcell Ozuna COOL vs Boyd Edge +525 0.128 · 89.5 · 9.0% 14.3% 13.3% F B O D 37

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Jones +850 0.120 · 88.0 · 6.8% 12.5% 5.3% F B O D 31

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong COOL vs Jones Edge +400 0.235 · 90.1 · 8.7% 0.0% 17.0% F B O D 46

· PIT Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Boyd Edge +475 0.188 · 90.9 · 10.1% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 43

· PIT Brandon Lowe vs Boyd +475 0.229 · 91.0 · 10.8% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 47

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn vs Boyd +750 0.185 · 89.8 · 8.6% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 40

· CHC Dansby Swanson COOL vs Jones +700 0.197 · 89.8 · 7.2% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 38

· PIT Jake Mangum vs Boyd Edge — 0.071 · 84.7 · 3.8% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 22

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Jones — 0.092 · 86.1 · 2.4% 0.0% 4.9% F B O D 20

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.0% ← leak BRK 40.3% OFF 14.7% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

9.1% 12.9% 11.5% 10.6% D 46 +400

Ian Happ S Edge

14.4% 19.2% 1.7% 12.2% D 46 +425

Seiya Suzuki R

10.0% 9.1% 10.5% 9.7% D 44 +525

128

Michael Busch L Edge

12.7% 5.1% 3.1% 9.8% D 40 +525

145

Dansby Swanson R

7.1% 5.3% 13.3% 7.3% D 38 +700

187

Alex Bregman R

4.3% 7.1% 6.7% 5.2% D 32 +750

199

Carson Kelly R

7.8% 3.6% 5.9% 6.4% D 31 +850

232

Nico Hoerner R

1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% D 20 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.0% usage) carries Jones's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 46.6% ← leak OFF 27.3% BRK 25.7% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Brandon Lowe L

16.7% 10.6% 6.8% 12.3% D 47 +475

102

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

10.9% 5.2% 14.3% 10.6% D 43 +475

133

Ryan O'Hearn L

8.4% 4.8% 7.0% 7.7% D 40 +750

156

Marcell Ozuna R Edge

8.7% 0.0% 11.5% 8.6% D 37 +525

202

Nick Gonzales R Edge

1.7% 0.0% 6.0% 2.8% D 30 +850

230

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.6% usage) carries Boyd's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Happ Suzuki Busch Bregman Ozuna Gonzales

Legend

attack side — vs Jones fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Michael Busch +525 · 40

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.81× Wind 3 mph in 77°F open

-7

↑

3 mph · in

77°F

6:40p · peak

-7

↑

3 mph · in

76°F

7:40p

-7

↑

3 mph · in

75°F

8:40p

-9

↑

4 mph · in

74°F

9:40p

-9

↑

4 mph · in

74°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.81× 77°F, wind 3 mph E (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jared Jones · RHP 1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.38 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 46 D +400 COOL 73 0.235 90.1 8.7% 23.2%vs RHP 393 18.6% 0.0% 17.0% 18

2 Ian Happ 46 D +425 COOL 74 0.210 89.7 9.3% 25.0%vs RHP 404 18.8% 11.1% 16.5% 19

3 Seiya Suzuki ✶ 44 D +525 WARM 92 0.208 89.2 8.3% 24.5%vs RHP 409 16.0% 22.2% 17.5% 23

4 Michael Busch 40 D +525 WARM 128 0.161 88.3 8.5% 16.4%vs RHP 403 13.6% 22.2% 18.1% 24

5 Dansby Swanson 38 D +700 COOL 145 0.197 89.8 7.2% 17.7%vs RHP 403 13.0% 0.0% 9.1% 26

6 Alex Bregman 32 D +750 · 187 0.119 88.1 5.5% 17.2%vs RHP 391 9.0% 33.3% 10.2% 26

7 Carson Kelly 31 D +850 COOL 199 0.120 88.0 6.8% 9.1%vs RHP 416 7.0% 12.5% 5.3% 21

8 Nico Hoerner 20 D — WARM 232 0.092 86.1 2.4% 3.6%vs RHP 383 4.0% 0.0% 4.9% 34

vs Matthew Boyd · LHP 1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.09 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 47 D +475 · 70 0.229 91.0 10.8% 16.7%vs LHP 392 15.4% 0.0% 11.3% 18

2 Bryan Reynolds 43 D +475 COOL 102 0.188 90.9 10.1% 26.1%vs LHP 409 13.1% 0.0% 11.8% 16

3 Ryan O'Hearn 40 D +750 · 133 0.185 89.8 8.6% 17.4%vs LHP 384 13.5% 0.0% 9.2% 18

4 Marcell Ozuna 37 D +525 COOL 156 0.128 89.5 9.0% 22.2%vs LHP 404 9.2% 14.3% 13.3% 12

5 Nick Gonzales 30 D +850 WARM 202 0.102 85.8 5.2% 4.8%vs LHP 396 8.3% 33.3% 8.3% 30

6 Jake Mangum 22 D — WARM 230 0.071 84.7 3.8% 0.0%vs LHP 408 3.4% 0.0% 5.5% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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