TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.19×

AZ @ WSH

Nationals Park · 6:45p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 7 mph cross 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

6:45p

+3 ↑

7:45p

+3 ↑

8:45p

+3 ↑

9:45p

+3 ↑

10:45p

conditions hold steady across the window · +3 FIT

Best of game Cj Abrams conv 38 · vs Rodriguez ⟷ Nolan Arenado conv 26 · vs Palmquist → edge: James Wood

ATTACK Eduardo Rodriguez LHP · AZ

leak 35

0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cj Abrams +500 C+ ●●●●●

2 James Wood +255 B ●●●●●

3 Curtis Mead +425 C+ ●●●○○

FADE Carson Palmquist LHP · WSH

leak 18

0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.38 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nolan Arenado +425 C ●●●●○

2 Corbin Carroll +320 C ●●●○○

3 Ketel Marte +280 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is James Wood: 22.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Rodriguez +500 0.258 · 89.9 · 10.2% 50.0% 25.4% F B O C+ 65

· WSH James Wood ✶ vs Rodriguez +255 0.279 · 95.2 · 14.4% 33.3% 33.0% F B O B 75

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Palmquist Edge +425 0.185 · 85.3 · 7.1% 33.3% 17.7% F B O C 51

· WSH Curtis Mead vs Rodriguez Edge +425 0.249 · 88.2 · 10.2% 14.3% 28.6% F B O C+ 62

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Palmquist +320 0.238 · 91.3 · 9.1% 20.0% 22.3% F B O C 58

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Palmquist Edge +280 0.203 · 91.1 · 8.6% 11.1% 12.5% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.188 · 89.3 · 7.2% 14.3% 15.1% F B O D 49

· WSH Jacob Young vs Rodriguez Edge +950 0.151 · 88.7 · 8.1% 16.7% 10.4% F B O D 46

· WSH Daylen Lile HOT vs Rodriguez +700 0.160 · 88.2 · 8.6% 12.5% 8.6% F B O D 47

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Palmquist Edge +575 0.139 · 89.1 · 7.0% 10.0% 7.4% F B O D 43

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Palmquist Edge +700 0.118 · 87.1 · 4.6% 10.0% 5.7% F B O D 37

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs Palmquist Edge +750 0.139 · 87.6 · 4.9% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 38

· AZ Adrian Del Castillo vs Palmquist — 0.130 · 88.9 · 6.8% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 41

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.046 · 85.0 · 2.2% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 26

· WSH Jorbit Vivas COOL vs Rodriguez — 0.101 · 83.3 · 5.9% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 60.4% ← leak BRK 39.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Corbin Carroll L

10.7% 15.5% 11.6% C 58 +320

Ketel Marte S Edge

14.0% 8.3% 10.4% C 53 +280

Nolan Arenado R Edge

10.6% 2.4% 7.2% C 51 +425

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

105

Gabriel Moreno R Edge

7.3% 6.3% 7.4% D 43 +575

124

Adrian Del Castillo L

10.6% 0.0% 6.5% D 41 —

152

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.6% 1.8% 3.4% D 38 +750

161

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.0% 0.0% 3.0% D 37 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.4% usage) carries Palmquist's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 60.4% ← leak OFF 26.9% BRK 12.8% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

James Wood L

22.2% 12.1% 26.4% 22.1% B 75 +255

Neutral · 2

Cj Abrams L

12.3% 12.2% 8.2% 10.9% C+ 65 +500

Curtis Mead R Edge

13.4% 3.0% 10.5% 11.1% C+ 62 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

8.0% 2.9% 1.9% 5.3% D 49 —

Daylen Lile L

8.6% 4.1% 10.9% 8.2% D 47 +700

Jacob Young R Edge

8.9% 3.7% 4.5% 7.0% D 46 +950

160

Jorbit Vivas L

3.1% 3.7% 4.9% 3.6% D 37 —

223

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% D 26 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.4% usage) carries Rodriguez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Carroll Arenado Wood Abrams Mead Ruiz Young

Legend

attack side — vs Rodriguez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Cj Abrams +500 · 65

James Wood +255 · 75

Corbin Carroll +320 · 58

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 7 mph cross 81°F open

↑

7 mph · cross

81°F

6:45p · peak

↑

6 mph · cross

80°F

7:45p

↑

6 mph · cross

77°F

8:45p

↑

6 mph · cross

74°F

9:45p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

70°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.19× 81°F, wind 7 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Carson Palmquist · LHP 0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.38 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 58 C +320 WARM 22 0.238 91.3 9.1% 17.4%vs LHP 403 14.5% 20.0% 22.3% 27

2 Ketel Marte 53 C +280 COOL 38 0.203 91.1 8.6% 33.3%vs LHP 412 15.5% 11.1% 12.5% 28

3 Nolan Arenado 51 C +425 WARM 46 0.185 85.3 7.1% 25.0%vs LHP 391 13.8% 33.3% 17.7% 24

4 Gabriel Moreno 43 D +575 WARM 105 0.139 89.1 7.0% 20.0%vs LHP 395 8.6% 10.0% 7.4% 32

5 Adrian Del Castillo 41 D — WARM 124 0.130 88.9 6.8% 0.0%vs LHP 400 8.0% 0.0% 7.6% 7

6 Ildemaro Vargas 38 D +750 WARM 152 0.139 87.6 4.9% 29.4%vs LHP 399 5.3% 0.0% 8.2% 27

7 Geraldo Perdomo 37 D +700 COOL 161 0.118 87.1 4.6% 5.6%vs LHP 386 6.8% 10.0% 5.7% 31

vs Eduardo Rodriguez · LHP 0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood ✶ 75 B +255 · 1 0.279 95.2 14.4% 38.1%vs LHP 412 28.6% 33.3% 33.0% 26

2 Cj Abrams 65 C+ +500 WARM 9 0.258 89.9 10.2% 13.6%vs LHP 397 42.9% 50.0% 25.4% 28

3 Curtis Mead 62 C+ +425 · 14 0.249 88.2 10.2% 21.9%vs LHP 400 20.3% 14.3% 28.6% 21

4 Keibert Ruiz 49 D — COOL 59 0.188 89.3 7.2% 25.0%vs LHP 377 11.6% 14.3% 15.1% 18

5 Daylen Lile 47 D +700 HOT 72 0.160 88.2 8.6% 5.6%vs LHP 403 8.8% 12.5% 8.6% 22

6 Jacob Young 46 D +950 WARM 81 0.151 88.7 8.1% 9.1%vs LHP 396 8.8% 16.7% 10.4% 17

7 Jorbit Vivas 37 D — COOL 160 0.101 83.3 5.9% 6.5% 392 3.6% 0.0% 7.2% 13

8 Nasim Nunez 26 D — COOL 223 0.046 85.0 2.2% 7.7%vs LHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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