TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ STL

Suppressed air · 0.86×

CIN @ STL

Busch Stadium · 8:15p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.86× Wind 5 mph slight_out 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

7:15p

-4 ↑

8:15p

-4 ↑

9:15p

-4 ↑

10:15p

-4 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at -3

Best of game Nathaniel Lowe conv 37 · vs May ⟷ Jj Wetherholt conv 22 · vs Lowder → edge: Nathaniel Lowe

ATTACK Dustin May RHP · STL

leak 57

0.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nathaniel Lowe +575 D ●●●●●

2 Elly De La Cruz +475 C ●●●●○

3 Sal Stewart +475 D ●●●○○

FADE Rhett Lowder RHP · CIN

leak 18

1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jj Wetherholt +500 D ●●●○○

2 Jordan Walker +390 C ●○○○○

3 Alec Burleson +400 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Nathaniel Lowe: 11.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 50.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Elly De La Cruz COOL vs May Edge +475 0.227 · 94.2 · 9.6% 33.3% 20.8% F B O C 50

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Lowder +390 0.228 · 93.9 · 11.1% 0.0% 13.4% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· CIN Nathaniel Lowe ✶ HOT vs May Edge +575 0.228 · 89.1 · 8.6% 50.0% 24.0% F B O D 48

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Lowder Edge +500 0.145 · 90.0 · 7.9% 33.3% 9.7% F B O D 39

· CIN Sal Stewart COOL vs May +475 0.222 · 90.3 · 9.4% 22.2% 14.7% F B O D 46

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs May +625 0.148 · 90.9 · 8.4% 14.3% 12.4% F B O D 36

· CIN Spencer Steer vs May +625 0.185 · 89.7 · 8.7% 11.1% 13.6% F B O D 41

· CIN Jj Bleday HOT vs May Edge +525 0.244 · 89.0 · 7.8% 0.0% 23.9% F B O D 42

· CIN Eugenio Suarez HOT vs May +525 0.194 · 88.3 · 8.0% 0.0% 17.4% F B O D 36

· STL Alec Burleson vs Lowder Edge +400 0.183 · 91.6 · 9.9% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 45

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Lowder Edge +750 0.138 · 86.2 · 8.1% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 36

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Lowder +750 0.132 · 89.0 · 6.9% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 31

· CIN Tj Friedl COOL vs May Edge — 0.087 · 87.4 · 4.2% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 24

· STL José Fermín vs Lowder — 0.122 · 85.4 · 4.3% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 29

· STL Masyn Winn vs Lowder +850 0.083 · 88.1 · 5.1% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 67.2% ← leak BRK 26.2% OFF 6.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

19.7% 10.9% 3.8% 14.2% C 50 +475

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Nathaniel Lowe L Edge

10.6% 14.3% 12.5% 11.6% D 48 +575

Sal Stewart R

16.7% 10.2% 10.7% 13.9% D 46 +475

106

Jj Bleday L Edge

11.8% 9.3% 6.1% 9.9% D 42 +525

120

Spencer Steer R

13.3% 10.5% 9.7% 12.0% D 41 +625

164

Eugenio Suarez R

12.4% 3.0% 7.7% 10.1% D 36 +525

166

Tyler Stephenson R

13.8% 7.7% 6.2% 11.3% D 36 +625

228

Tj Friedl L Edge

3.0% 4.0% 0.0% 2.7% D 24 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (67.2% usage) carries May's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.2% BRK 27.0% OFF 20.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jordan Walker R

14.7% 13.8% 16.1% 14.6% C 52 +390

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.9% 11.6% 10.1% 11.4% D 45 +400

138

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

10.7% 2.6% 2.3% 7.4% D 39 +500

170

Nathan Church L Edge

9.3% 6.2% 6.2% 7.5% D 36 +750

195

Ivan Herrera R

5.0% 5.0% 7.5% 5.4% D 31 +750

213

José Fermín R

2.3% 2.8% 0.0% 2.0% D 29 —

220

Masyn Winn R

3.4% 2.2% 3.3% 3.0% D 27 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Lowder's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Cruz Lowe Stewart Stephenson Wetherholt

Legend

attack side — vs May fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Elly De La Cruz +475 · 50

Nathaniel Lowe +575 · 48

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 0.86× Wind 5 mph slight_out 71°F open

-3

↑

5 mph · slight_out

71°F

7:15p · peak

-4

↑

5 mph · slight_out

70°F

8:15p

-4

↑

4 mph · slight_out

69°F

9:15p

-4

↑

4 mph · cross

69°F

10:15p

-4

↑

4 mph · cross

70°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.86× 71°F, wind 5 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Dustin May · RHP 0.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz 50 C +475 COOL 51 0.227 94.2 9.6% 18.8%vs RHP 397 17.5% 33.3% 20.8% 33

2 Nathaniel Lowe ✶ 48 D +575 HOT 62 0.228 89.1 8.6% 31.6%vs RHP 395 17.5% 50.0% 24.0% 16

3 Sal Stewart 46 D +475 COOL 76 0.222 90.3 9.4% 21.7%vs RHP 393 14.0% 22.2% 14.7% 31

4 Jj Bleday 42 D +525 HOT 106 0.244 89.0 7.8% 24.5%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 23.9% 23

5 Spencer Steer 41 D +625 · 120 0.185 89.7 8.7% 19.0%vs RHP 394 12.9% 11.1% 13.6% 27

6 Eugenio Suarez 36 D +525 HOT 164 0.194 88.3 8.0% 25.7%vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 17.4% 18

7 Tyler Stephenson 36 D +625 WARM 166 0.148 90.9 8.4% 19.5%vs RHP 395 7.7% 14.3% 12.4% 20

8 Tj Friedl 24 D — COOL 228 0.087 87.4 4.2% 8.6%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 11

vs Rhett Lowder · RHP 1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 52 C +390 COOL 41 0.228 93.9 11.1% 32.7%vs RHP 406 18.9% 0.0% 13.4% 30

2 Alec Burleson 45 D +400 WARM 88 0.183 91.6 9.9% 21.0%vs RHP 407 15.5% 0.0% 10.4% 34

3 Jj Wetherholt 39 D +500 WARM 138 0.145 90.0 7.9% 18.0%vs RHP 388 16.7% 33.3% 9.7% 33

4 Nathan Church 36 D +750 COOL 170 0.138 86.2 8.1% 20.0%vs RHP 388 9.0% 0.0% 7.7% 22

5 Ivan Herrera 31 D +750 COOL 195 0.132 89.0 6.9% 17.5%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 32

6 José Fermín 29 D — WARM 213 0.122 85.4 4.3% 12.5%vs RHP 384 5.1% 0.0% 6.1% 20

7 Masyn Winn 27 D +850 WARM 220 0.083 88.1 5.1% 11.1%vs RHP 390 4.2% 0.0% 6.0% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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