TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ TB

Neutral air · 1.01×

CLE @ TB

Tropicana Field · 7:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 27 · vs Cantillo ⟷ Travis Bazzana conv 22 · vs McClanahan → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Joey Cantillo LHP · CLE

leak 70

1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.03 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero +305 C+ ●●●●○

2 Nick Fortes +850 D ●●●○○

3 Cedric Mullins — D ●●●○○

FADE Shane McClanahan LHP · TB

leak 14

0.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · stingy — thin edge

1 Travis Bazzana +850 D ●●●○○

2 Rhys Hoskins +400 C ●●●○○

3 Brayan Rocchio +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 13.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 27.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Cantillo Edge +305 0.266 · 93.0 · 10.2% 27.3% 27.1% F B O C+ 64

· CLE Rhys Hoskins vs McClanahan Edge +400 0.202 · 88.8 · 10.5% 14.3% 20.7% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· TB Nick Fortes vs Cantillo Edge +850 0.103 · 85.7 · 4.5% 33.3% 11.9% F B O D 36

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs McClanahan +850 0.170 · 88.3 · 6.7% 27.3% 16.3% F B O D 45

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Cantillo — 0.143 · 88.0 · 5.7% 25.0% 11.1% F B O D 42

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs McClanahan Edge +750 0.133 · 86.7 · 4.9% 18.2% 7.6% F B O D 36

· CLE Kyle Manzardo vs McClanahan — 0.153 · 89.1 · 9.8% 12.5% 8.6% F B O D 44

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Cantillo +525 0.161 · 91.0 · 8.7% 10.0% 8.3% F B O D 46

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs Cantillo — 0.100 · 85.8 · 5.2% 11.1% 6.9% F B O D 34

· CLE Chase Delauter HOT vs McClanahan +700 0.167 · 91.1 · 7.6% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 41

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs McClanahan +390 0.176 · 90.3 · 7.6% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 40

· TB Yandy Diaz COOL vs Cantillo Edge +500 0.161 · 91.1 · 7.3% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 40

· CLE Daniel Schneemann COOL vs McClanahan — 0.116 · 88.1 · 8.3% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 38

· TB Ben Williamson COOL vs Cantillo Edge +1000 0.078 · 87.4 · 3.7% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 30

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Cantillo Edge — 0.073 · 85.3 · 4.6% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 29

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs McClanahan — 0.059 · 83.2 · 1.9% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 22

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Cantillo — 0.062 · 83.9 · — 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 19

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 38.1% BRK 32.9% OFF 29.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rhys Hoskins R Edge

10.6% 16.7% 14.3% 12.5% C 51 +400

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Travis Bazzana L

5.0% 4.0% 3.8% 4.6% D 45 +850

100

Kyle Manzardo L

12.4% 10.9% 8.1% 11.2% D 44 —

117

Chase Delauter L

10.7% 5.9% 1.8% 7.7% D 41 +700

126

Jose Ramirez L

— — — — D 40 +390

146

Daniel Schneemann L

11.6% 5.7% 0.0% 7.7% D 38 —

171

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.6% 3.8% 1.3% 3.1% D 36 +750

229

Steven Kwan L

0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 22 —

Read the columns: no single family leads McClanahan's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 2 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 40.5% ← leak BRK 32.1% OFF 27.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R Edge

16.6% 11.7% 7.0% 13.5% C+ 64 +305

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Jonathan Aranda L

10.6% 11.9% 5.8% 9.9% D 46 +525

110

Cedric Mullins L

3.4% 3.9% 9.4% 4.3% D 42 —

125

Yandy Diaz R Edge

5.2% 11.2% 5.3% 7.2% D 40 +500

167

Nick Fortes R Edge

3.2% 2.1% 0.0% 2.6% D 36 +850

179

Richie Palacios L

4.2% 2.3% 3.8% 3.6% D 34 —

203

Ben Williamson R Edge

2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% D 30 +1000

212

Taylor Walls S Edge

3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% D 29 —

233

Chandler Simpson L

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 19 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (40.5% usage) carries Cantillo's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Hoskins Bazzana Caminero Mullins Fortes

Legend

attack side — vs Cantillo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Junior Caminero +305 · 64

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof unknown

Park 1.01× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.01× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shane McClanahan · LHP 0.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins 51 C +400 WARM 44 0.202 88.8 10.5% 21.1%vs LHP 386 13.5% 14.3% 20.7% 13

2 Travis Bazzana 45 D +850 WARM 85 0.170 88.3 6.7% 10.5%vs LHP 396 13.6% 27.3% 16.3% 24

3 Kyle Manzardo 44 D — WARM 100 0.153 89.1 9.8% 10.0%vs LHP 389 11.1% 12.5% 8.6% 22

4 Chase Delauter 41 D +700 HOT 117 0.167 91.1 7.6% 14.3%vs LHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 34

5 Jose Ramirez 40 D +390 COOL 126 0.176 90.3 7.6% 22.7%vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 8

6 Daniel Schneemann 38 D — COOL 146 0.116 88.1 8.3% 22.2%vs LHP 398 6.4% 0.0% 8.7% 9

7 Brayan Rocchio 36 D +750 WARM 171 0.133 86.7 4.9% 11.5%vs LHP 386 8.3% 18.2% 7.6% 38

8 Steven Kwan 22 D — COOL 229 0.059 83.2 1.9% 0.0%vs LHP 381 1.1% 0.0% 6.1% 34

vs Joey Cantillo · LHP 1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.03 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 64 C+ +305 · 10 0.266 93.0 10.2% 46.7%vs LHP 408 27.3% 27.3% 27.1% 31

2 Jonathan Aranda 46 D +525 · 80 0.161 91.0 8.7% 5.3%vs LHP 387 12.5% 10.0% 8.3% 30

3 Cedric Mullins 42 D — WARM 110 0.143 88.0 5.7% 0.0%vs LHP 393 13.9% 25.0% 11.1% 22

4 Yandy Diaz 40 D +500 COOL 125 0.161 91.1 7.3% 19.2%vs LHP 386 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 44

5 Nick Fortes 36 D +850 WARM 167 0.103 85.7 4.5% 5.9%vs LHP 396 5.6% 33.3% 11.9% 18

6 Richie Palacios 34 D — COOL 179 0.100 85.8 5.2% 5.8% 396 3.8% 11.1% 6.9% 20

7 Ben Williamson 30 D +1000 COOL 203 0.078 87.4 3.7% 14.3%vs LHP 398 2.9% 0.0% 8.1% 20

8 Taylor Walls 29 D — COOL 212 0.073 85.3 4.6% 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 22

9 Chandler Simpson 19 D — COOL 233 0.062 83.9 — 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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