TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ CWS

Suppressed air · 0.90×

HOU @ CWS

Rate Field · 7:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Sam Antonacci conv 19 · vs Arrighetti ⟷ Jeremy Peña conv 26 · vs Martin → edge: Colson Montgomery

ATTACK Spencer Arrighetti RHP · HOU

leak 90

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · leakiest side of this game

1 Sam Antonacci +575 D ●●●○○

2 Colson Montgomery +290 C ●●●○○

3 Miguel Vargas +330 C ●●○○○

FADE Davis Martin RHP · CWS

leak 31

0.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jeremy Peña +625 D ●●●●○

2 Isaac Paredes +475 D ●●●○○

3 Cam Smith — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Colson Montgomery: 13.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 11.1% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Colson Montgomery ✶ COOL vs Arrighetti Edge +290 0.248 · 89.2 · 10.3% 11.1% 22.7% F B O C 57

· HOU Yordan Alvarez vs Martin Edge +210 0.328 · 94.6 · 11.3% 0.0% 24.9% F B O C 55

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Arrighetti +330 0.241 · 90.4 · 10.8% 11.1% 13.0% F B O C 55

· CWS Munetaka Murakami COOL vs Arrighetti Edge +280 0.292 · 93.8 · 12.2% 0.0% 18.5% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· HOU Jeremy Peña HOT vs Martin +625 0.169 · 87.5 · 5.6% 37.5% 15.5% F B O D 39

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Arrighetti Edge +575 0.130 · 87.5 · 7.1% 25.0% 12.3% F B O D 40

· HOU Isaac Paredes vs Martin +475 0.175 · 86.7 · 6.2% 22.2% 11.5% F B O D 38

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Martin — 0.152 · 89.4 · 8.8% 20.0% 9.5% F B O D 39

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Martin +700 0.149 · 88.0 · 6.0% 16.7% 8.1% F B O D 34

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Arrighetti Edge +750 0.167 · 87.4 · 6.2% 12.5% 9.4% F B O D 39

· HOU Jose Altuve vs Martin +625 0.170 · 85.6 · 6.3% 0.0% 14.5% F B O D 32

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Martin +475 0.218 · 89.3 · 8.1% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 44

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Arrighetti Edge +425 0.179 · 89.1 · 8.5% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 44

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Martin — 0.116 · 85.9 · 3.1% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 25

· CWS Luisangel Acuna COOL vs Arrighetti — 0.039 · 89.3 · 5.5% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 28

· CWS Edgar Quero COOL vs Arrighetti Edge +950 0.046 · 90.9 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 29

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Arrighetti +850 0.104 · 87.8 · 5.7% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.1% ← leak BRK 27.7% OFF 14.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

19.9% 24.4% 9.8% 19.1% C 55 +210

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Christian Walker R

8.8% 10.5% 13.8% 9.8% D 44 +475

137

Jeremy Peña R

3.7% 5.7% 14.3% 5.1% D 39 +625

139

Cam Smith R

8.9% 16.4% 20.0% 11.7% D 39 —

143

Isaac Paredes R

8.0% 3.8% 2.4% 6.1% D 38 +475

178

Yainer Diaz R

7.7% 2.0% 4.2% 5.2% D 34 +700

185

Jose Altuve R

6.8% 6.1% 0.0% 6.0% D 32 +625

224

Christian Vazquez R

1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.1% usage) carries Martin's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 46.1% ← leak BRK 45.8% OFF 7.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

22.1% 15.7% 17.6% 19.1% C 58 +280

Colson Montgomery L Edge

13.6% 13.0% 14.7% 13.6% C 57 +290

Miguel Vargas R

16.6% 12.0% 12.9% 14.8% C 55 +330

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

12.5% 5.7% 6.2% 9.3% D 44 +425

132

Sam Antonacci L Edge

8.0% 6.1% 0.0% 6.4% D 40 +575

140

Tristan Peters L Edge

6.6% 3.9% 0.0% 5.0% D 39 +750

189

Chase Meidroth R

3.9% 5.6% 2.3% 4.1% D 32 +850

211

Edgar Quero S Edge

2.6% 0.0% 4.0% 2.5% D 29 +950

217

Luisangel Acuna R

4.2% 5.7% 0.0% 4.0% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.1% usage) carries Arrighetti's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Peña Smith Paredes Montgomery Antonacci

Legend

attack side — vs Arrighetti fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:40p · roof unknown

Park 0.90× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Suppress · Combined 0.90× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Davis Martin · RHP 0.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 55 C +210 WARM 27 0.328 94.6 11.3% 28.6%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 24.9% 29

2 Christian Walker 44 D +475 COOL 96 0.218 89.3 8.1% 27.4%vs RHP 388 18.6% 0.0% 12.4% 13

3 Jeremy Peña 39 D +625 HOT 137 0.169 87.5 5.6% 22.9%vs RHP 384 13.3% 37.5% 15.5% 27

4 Cam Smith 39 D — COOL 139 0.152 89.4 8.8% 19.6%vs RHP 414 12.1% 20.0% 9.5% 17

5 Isaac Paredes 38 D +475 · 143 0.175 86.7 6.2% 18.9%vs RHP 374 12.2% 22.2% 11.5% 32

6 Yainer Diaz 34 D +700 · 178 0.149 88.0 6.0% 23.1%vs RHP 391 9.4% 16.7% 8.1% 21

7 Jose Altuve 32 D +625 WARM 185 0.170 85.6 6.3% 23.8%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 14.5% 26

8 Christian Vazquez 25 D — COOL 224 0.116 85.9 3.1% 13.8%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 11

vs Spencer Arrighetti · RHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami 58 C +280 COOL 21 0.292 93.8 12.2% 36.4%vs RHP 409 14.9% 0.0% 18.5% 15

2 Colson Montgomery ✶ 57 C +290 COOL 24 0.248 89.2 10.3% 26.2%vs RHP 398 25.0% 11.1% 22.7% 15

3 Miguel Vargas 55 C +330 · 31 0.241 90.4 10.8% 15.2%vs RHP 389 20.2% 11.1% 13.0% 31

4 Andrew Benintendi 44 D +425 COOL 97 0.179 89.1 8.5% 17.0%vs RHP 389 13.6% 0.0% 11.1% 22

5 Sam Antonacci 40 D +575 COOL 132 0.130 87.5 7.1% 14.9%vs RHP 397 10.5% 25.0% 12.3% 26

6 Tristan Peters 39 D +750 WARM 140 0.167 87.4 6.2% 10.3%vs RHP 377 8.3% 12.5% 9.4% 26

7 Chase Meidroth 32 D +850 COOL 189 0.104 87.8 5.7% 13.5%vs RHP 376 6.0% 0.0% 6.9% 22

8 Edgar Quero 29 D +950 COOL 211 0.046 90.9 4.5% 0.0%vs RHP 389 4.5% 0.0% 7.6% 3

9 Luisangel Acuna 28 D — COOL 217 0.039 89.3 5.5% 8.3%vs RHP 416 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 5

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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