TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.50×

NYY @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 6:45p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.15× Wind 8 mph out 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

+13 ↑

6:45p

+13 ↑

7:45p

+11 ↑

8:45p

+10 ↑

9:45p

+9 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 6:45p at +13

Best of game Ben Rice conv 36 · vs Luzardo ⟷ Trea Turner conv 27 · vs Schlittler → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Jesús Luzardo LHP · PHI

leak 95

0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ben Rice +390 B ●●●●●

2 Trent Grisham +525 C ●●●●○

3 Paul Goldschmidt +475 C ●●●○○

FADE Cam Schlittler RHP · NYY

leak 28

0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Trea Turner +575 D ●●●●○

2 Alec Bohm +625 D ●●●○○

3 Kyle Schwarber +192 C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 15.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 27.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Luzardo +390 0.312 · 92.3 · 9.4% 27.3% 43.8% F B O B 70

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Luzardo +525 0.182 · 91.3 · 8.0% 27.3% 20.4% F B O C 53

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Luzardo Edge +475 0.223 · 86.5 · 8.1% 14.3% 23.5% F B O C 55

· PHI Kyle Schwarber COOL vs Schlittler Edge +192 0.299 · 93.3 · 12.5% 11.1% 23.0% F B O C+ 69

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs Schlittler Edge +350 0.237 · 90.2 · 9.6% 11.1% 19.5% F B O C 59

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Schlittler Edge +475 0.186 · 89.6 · 8.9% 12.5% 14.7% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· PHI Trea Turner HOT vs Schlittler +575 0.146 · 88.9 · 7.5% 33.3% 19.8% F B O D 49

· PHI Alec Bohm HOT vs Schlittler +625 0.148 · 90.5 · 6.6% 22.2% 16.4% F B O D 47

· NYY Austin Wells vs Luzardo — 0.098 · 88.8 · 6.0% 11.1% 14.9% F B O D 41

· NYY Cody Bellinger vs Luzardo +700 0.161 · 89.1 · 6.0% 0.0% 12.9% F B O D 44

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs Luzardo Edge +850 0.143 · 83.8 · 4.6% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 37

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon vs Luzardo — 0.165 · 91.0 · 8.0% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 47

· PHI J.T. Realmuto COOL vs Schlittler +625 0.133 · — · 6.2% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 37

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Schlittler Edge +625 0.147 · 89.0 · 7.5% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 43

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Schlittler Edge +950 0.087 · 86.6 · 2.7% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 43.2% ← leak BRK 37.3% OFF 19.6% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Ben Rice L

18.8% 11.2% 13.0% 15.5% B 70 +390

Neutral · 2

Paul Goldschmidt R Edge

14.4% 5.4% 10.7% 11.2% C 55 +475

Trent Grisham L

12.8% 10.3% 5.7% 11.2% C 53 +525

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Ryan Mcmahon L

14.1% 5.0% 9.5% 11.0% D 47 —

Cody Bellinger L

3.4% 11.6% 9.1% 6.3% D 44 +700

119

Austin Wells L

7.9% 6.9% 0.0% 6.4% D 41 —

153

Jose Caballero R Edge

— — — — D 37 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (43.2% usage) carries Luzardo's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 90.8% ← leak BRK 9.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

19.8% 15.9% 19.5% C+ 69 +192

Bryce Harper L Edge

9.4% 15.6% 11.4% C 59 +350

Brandon Marsh L Edge

8.6% 14.9% 9.5% C 52 +475

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Trea Turner R

9.2% 5.1% 7.1% D 49 +575

Alec Bohm R

5.2% 4.9% 5.5% D 47 +625

103

Bryson Stott L Edge

8.1% 5.1% 6.8% D 43 +625

154

J.T. Realmuto R

4.6% 4.1% 4.7% D 37 +625

197

Justin Crawford L Edge

1.7% 0.0% 0.9% D 31 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (90.8% usage) carries Schlittler's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Goldschmidt Grisham Wells Schwarber Harper Marsh Turner Bohm

Legend

attack side — vs Luzardo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Ben Rice +390 · 70

Trent Grisham +525 · 53

Trea Turner +575 · 49

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 1.15× Wind 8 mph out 79°F open

+13

↑

8 mph · out

79°F

6:45p · peak

+13

↑

8 mph · out

76°F

7:45p

+11

↑

7 mph · out

73°F

8:45p

+10

↑

6 mph · out

71°F

9:45p

↑

5 mph · out

69°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.50× 79°F, wind 8 mph S (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jesús Luzardo · LHP 0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 70 B +390 WARM 2 0.312 92.3 9.4% 42.1%vs LHP 389 27.4% 27.3% 43.8% 24

2 Paul Goldschmidt 55 C +475 COOL 29 0.223 86.5 8.1% 33.3%vs LHP 391 16.9% 14.3% 23.5% 17

3 Trent Grisham 53 C +525 · 36 0.182 91.3 8.0% 12.5%vs LHP 390 11.7% 27.3% 20.4% 28

4 Ryan Mcmahon 47 D — WARM 67 0.165 91.0 8.0% 0.0%vs LHP 384 20.0% 0.0% 12.1% 17

5 Cody Bellinger 44 D +700 WARM 95 0.161 89.1 6.0% 14.8%vs LHP 379 9.4% 0.0% 12.9% 22

6 Austin Wells 41 D — · 119 0.098 88.8 6.0% 13.3%vs LHP 378 8.7% 11.1% 14.9% 14

7 Jose Caballero 37 D +850 COOL 153 0.143 83.8 4.6% 30.8%vs LHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 20

vs Cam Schlittler · RHP 0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber 69 C+ +192 COOL 3 0.299 93.3 12.5% 43.8%vs RHP 403 25.3% 11.1% 23.0% 19

2 Bryce Harper 59 C +350 COOL 19 0.237 90.2 9.6% 35.3%vs RHP 400 19.4% 11.1% 19.5% 23

3 Brandon Marsh 52 C +475 COOL 40 0.186 89.6 8.9% 25.0%vs RHP 393 14.0% 12.5% 14.7% 19

4 Trea Turner 49 D +575 HOT 54 0.146 88.9 7.5% 19.6%vs RHP 391 13.5% 33.3% 19.8% 26

5 Alec Bohm 47 D +625 HOT 68 0.148 90.5 6.6% 18.9%vs RHP 394 12.6% 22.2% 16.4% 29

6 Bryson Stott 43 D +625 · 103 0.147 89.0 7.5% 8.6%vs RHP 393 7.5% 0.0% 8.8% 23

7 J.T. Realmuto 37 D +625 COOL 154 0.133 — 6.2% 18.8%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 21

8 Justin Crawford 31 D +950 COOL 197 0.087 86.6 2.7% 5.7%vs RHP 382 2.9% 0.0% 7.5% 9

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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