TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ MIA

Suppressed air · 0.88×

SD @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 7:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.88× Wind 10 mph in 88°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

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7:10p

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8:10p

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9:10p

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10:10p

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11:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · -14 FIT

Best of game Griffin Conine conv 31 · vs Márquez ⟷ Ty France conv 38 · vs Gusto → edge: Ty France

ATTACK Germán Márquez RHP · SD

leak 95

2.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.06 · leakiest side of this game

1 Griffin Conine — C ●●●●●

2 Joe Mack — D ●●●○○

3 Heriberto Hernández — C ●●○○○

FADE Ryan Gusto RHP · MIA

leak 18

0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ty France — C ●●●●●

2 Jackson Merrill — D ●●●●○

3 Manny Machado +1000 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ty France: Match 26.0% · 14D pace 50.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Ty France ✶ HOT vs Gusto — 0.260 · 92.2 · 10.3% 50.0% 26.0% F B O C 58

· MIA Griffin Conine vs Márquez Edge — 0.268 · 90.4 · 12.4% 25.0% 37.6% F B O C 56

· SD Manny Machado vs Gusto +1000 0.226 · 90.4 · 9.9% 20.0% 22.5% F B O C 52

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Márquez — 0.228 · 92.4 · 10.8% 14.3% 13.3% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· SD Jackson Merrill HOT vs Gusto Edge — 0.152 · 89.6 · 9.3% 33.3% 13.8% F B O D 43

· MIA Joe Mack COOL vs Márquez Edge — 0.191 · 88.8 · 9.4% 20.0% 22.8% F B O D 49

· MIA Liam Hicks COOL vs Márquez Edge — 0.166 · 85.3 · 5.9% 12.5% 11.2% F B O D 42

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Gusto — 0.106 · 88.0 · 7.5% 10.0% 6.6% F B O D 33

· SD Luis Campusano vs Gusto — 0.235 · 87.6 · 9.6% 0.0% 13.9% F B O D 42

· MIA Kyle Stowers COOL vs Márquez Edge +1000 0.203 · 91.5 · 10.2% 0.0% 13.7% F B O D 49

· SD Gavin Sheets COOL vs Gusto Edge — 0.192 · 87.9 · 8.0% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 41

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Márquez — 0.166 · 89.5 · 8.1% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 42

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Márquez Edge — 0.094 · 86.7 · 5.4% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 32

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Gusto Edge — 0.086 · 87.5 · 7.1% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 29

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Márquez Edge — 0.114 · 87.0 · 6.4% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 34

· MIA Javier Sanoja COOL vs Márquez — 0.131 · 87.1 · 3.5% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.7% BRK 28.3% OFF 19.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ty France R

13.2% 13.3% 8.0% 12.5% C 58 —

Manny Machado R

13.4% 7.7% 7.9% 11.1% C 52 +1000

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

109

Jackson Merrill L Edge

12.8% 9.6% 6.3% 10.5% D 43 —

116

Luis Campusano R

10.8% 5.9% 20.0% 10.2% D 42 —

130

Gavin Sheets L Edge

9.8% 4.7% 2.0% 7.1% D 41 —

202

Xander Bogaerts R

8.0% 2.8% 4.0% 6.2% D 33 —

233

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

6.0% 5.3% 4.5% 5.6% D 29 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Gusto's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 50.5% BRK 46.6% OFF 2.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Griffin Conine L Edge

20.7% 13.6% 16.7% 17.5% C 56 —

Heriberto Hernández R

13.7% 13.5% 8.3% 13.3% C 52 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Joe Mack L Edge

9.5% 5.6% 16.7% 9.4% D 49 —

Kyle Stowers L Edge

12.1% 14.9% 2.9% 11.2% D 49 +1000

118

Liam Hicks L Edge

3.5% 6.0% 3.8% 4.2% D 42 —

121

Otto Lopez R

10.4% 4.1% 2.1% 7.0% D 42 —

198

Xavier Edwards S Edge

5.3% 2.8% 3.3% 4.3% D 34 —

207

Jakob Marsee L Edge

2.8% 0.0% 8.6% 3.2% D 32 —

209

Javier Sanoja R

0.8% 2.6% 0.0% 1.3% D 32 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Márquez's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → France Machado Merrill Conine Hernández Mack

Legend

attack side — vs Márquez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Ty France — · 58

Griffin Conine — · 56

Manny Machado +1000 · 52

Joe Mack — · 49

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.88× Wind 10 mph in 88°F retractable

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14 mph · in

92°F

7:10p · peak

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14 mph · in

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14 mph · in

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-14

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arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.88× 88°F, wind 10 mph E (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ryan Gusto · RHP 0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France ✶ 58 C — HOT 20 0.260 92.2 10.3% 37.5%vs RHP 394 21.3% 50.0% 26.0% 32

2 Manny Machado 52 C +1000 · 42 0.226 90.4 9.9% 30.5%vs RHP 397 20.6% 20.0% 22.5% 32

3 Jackson Merrill 43 D — HOT 109 0.152 89.6 9.3% 17.7%vs RHP 407 13.7% 33.3% 13.8% 31

4 Luis Campusano 42 D — · 116 0.235 87.6 9.6% 30.8%vs RHP 406 14.3% 0.0% 13.9% 12

5 Gavin Sheets 41 D — COOL 130 0.192 87.9 8.0% 31.2%vs RHP 397 11.4% 0.0% 11.9% 20

6 Xander Bogaerts 33 D — WARM 202 0.106 88.0 7.5% 16.7%vs RHP 396 8.4% 10.0% 6.6% 30

7 Jake Cronenworth 29 D — COOL 233 0.086 87.5 7.1% 15.0%vs RHP 389 1.9% 0.0% 6.8% 22

vs Germán Márquez · RHP 2.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.06 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Griffin Conine 56 C — WARM 26 0.268 90.4 12.4% 58.3%vs RHP 408 15.4% 25.0% 37.6% 17

2 Heriberto Hernández 52 C — WARM 46 0.228 92.4 10.8% 16.2%vs RHP 411 9.5% 14.3% 13.3% 22

3 Joe Mack 49 D — COOL 58 0.191 88.8 9.4% 26.7%vs RHP 415 14.3% 20.0% 22.8% 17

4 Kyle Stowers 49 D +1000 COOL 64 0.203 91.5 10.2% 22.4%vs RHP 396 11.0% 0.0% 13.7% 19

5 Liam Hicks 42 D — COOL 118 0.166 85.3 5.9% 22.0%vs RHP 378 15.5% 12.5% 11.2% 24

6 Otto Lopez 42 D — COOL 121 0.166 89.5 8.1% 12.7%vs RHP 402 8.2% 0.0% 9.2% 20

7 Xavier Edwards 34 D — COOL 198 0.114 87.0 6.4% 3.5%vs RHP 396 5.1% 0.0% 6.7% 24

8 Jakob Marsee 32 D — COOL 207 0.094 86.7 5.4% 7.8%vs RHP 379 6.2% 0.0% 7.2% 15

9 Javier Sanoja 32 D — COOL 209 0.131 87.1 3.5% 3.6%vs RHP 385 4.6% 0.0% 6.2% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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