TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ MIN

Neutral air · 1.04×

ATH @ MIN

Target Field · 8:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 11 mph cross 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

7:10p

-7 ↑

8:10p

-9 ↑

9:10p

-10 ↑

10:10p

-10 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at -5

Best of game Shea Langeliers conv 32 · vs Matthews ⟷ Trevor Larnach conv 23 · vs Lopez → edge: Shea Langeliers

ATTACK Zebby Matthews RHP · MIN

leak 99

1.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.06 · leakiest side of this game

1 Shea Langeliers +280 C+ ●●●●●

2 Tyler Soderstrom +330 C ●●●●●

3 Jacob Wilson +750 D ●●●●○

FADE Jacob Lopez LHP · ATH

leak 81

1.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · stingy — thin edge

1 Trevor Larnach — D ●●●●○

2 Kody Clemens +400 C ●●●○○

3 Brooks Lee +450 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Shea Langeliers: 15.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATH Shea Langeliers ✶ HOT vs Matthews +280 0.233 · 92.0 · 13.3% 33.3% 31.2% F B O C+ 65

· ATH Tyler Soderstrom vs Matthews Edge +330 0.225 · 90.2 · 10.9% 37.5% 25.1% F B O C 59

· MIN Kody Clemens COOL vs Lopez +400 0.243 · 92.7 · 8.2% 10.0% 23.9% F B O C 57

· MIN Byron Buxton COOL vs Lopez Edge +220 0.297 · 90.8 · 9.8% 0.0% 17.2% F B O C+ 62

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· ATH Jacob Wilson vs Matthews +750 0.131 · 83.8 · 5.6% 33.3% 16.2% F B O D 41

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Lopez — 0.166 · 87.1 · 6.1% 28.6% 17.9% F B O D 45

· ATH Carlos Cortes vs Matthews Edge +500 0.160 · 90.1 · 9.5% 16.7% 14.4% F B O D 46

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Lopez Edge +450 0.181 · 88.1 · 4.4% 11.1% 10.9% F B O D 44

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Lopez Edge +330 0.171 · 89.1 · 8.2% 11.1% 10.3% F B O D 48

· MIN Josh Bell COOL vs Lopez Edge +425 0.174 · 89.9 · 7.3% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 45

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs Matthews Edge +700 0.083 · 86.4 · 3.1% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 29

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Matthews Edge +525 0.100 · 89.1 · 8.1% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 37

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Lopez Edge +625 0.126 · 89.6 · 6.2% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 36

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Matthews +525 0.084 · 90.0 · 8.9% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 38

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Lopez Edge +850 0.087 · 84.3 · 4.0% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 31

· MIN Austin Martin COOL vs Lopez Edge +750 0.074 · 86.9 · 3.3% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.5% ← leak BRK 34.2% OFF 12.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Shea Langeliers R

17.4% 16.8% 4.8% 15.3% C+ 65 +280

Tyler Soderstrom L Edge

9.8% 18.6% 0.0% 10.5% C 59 +330

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Carlos Cortes L Edge

8.2% 4.5% 9.8% 7.7% D 46 +500

118

Jacob Wilson R

4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% D 41 +750

148

Henry Bolte R

6.7% 7.9% 5.6% 6.9% D 38 +525

158

Lawrence Butler L Edge

6.3% 8.6% 2.2% 5.7% D 37 +525

210

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

0.0% 2.0% 1.8% 0.8% D 29 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.5% usage) carries Matthews's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 59.3% ← leak BRK 31.7% OFF 9.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Byron Buxton R Edge

19.4% 16.7% 14.8% 18.1% C+ 62 +220

Kody Clemens L

10.3% 20.3% 12.2% 13.0% C 57 +400

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Royce Lewis R Edge

14.4% 9.8% 9.1% 12.4% D 48 +330

Trevor Larnach L

8.0% 6.8% 3.2% 7.1% D 45 —

Josh Bell S Edge

9.9% 14.5% 6.1% 10.0% D 45 +425

Brooks Lee S Edge

6.9% 1.2% 1.3% 3.9% D 44 +450

165

Victor Caratini S Edge

6.0% 14.3% 6.5% 7.3% D 36 +625

198

Luke Keaschall R Edge

3.7% 3.8% 0.0% 3.3% D 31 +850

204

Austin Martin R Edge

3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% D 30 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.3% usage) carries Lopez's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Langeliers Soderstrom Cortes Wilson Clemens Larnach

Legend

attack side — vs Matthews fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Shea Langeliers +280 · 65

Tyler Soderstrom +330 · 59

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 11 mph cross 80°F open

-5

↑

11 mph · cross

80°F

7:10p · peak

-7

↑

12 mph · cross

78°F

8:10p

-9

↑

12 mph · cross

76°F

9:10p

-10

↑

13 mph · cross

74°F

10:10p

-10

↑

12 mph · cross

73°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 80°F, wind 11 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Zebby Matthews · RHP 1.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.06 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shea Langeliers ✶ 65 C+ +280 HOT 7 0.233 92.0 13.3% 23.3%vs RHP 417 20.7% 33.3% 31.2% 17

2 Tyler Soderstrom 59 C +330 WARM 18 0.225 90.2 10.9% 21.6%vs RHP 403 16.1% 37.5% 25.1% 23

3 Carlos Cortes 46 D +500 WARM 77 0.160 90.1 9.5% 16.7%vs RHP 403 5.6% 16.7% 14.4% 14

4 Jacob Wilson 41 D +750 WARM 118 0.131 83.8 5.6% 16.7%vs RHP 386 8.2% 33.3% 16.2% 35

5 Henry Bolte 38 D +525 · 148 0.084 90.0 8.9% 0.0%vs RHP 422 9.5% 0.0% 7.2% 17

6 Lawrence Butler 37 D +525 WARM 158 0.100 89.1 8.1% 19.4%vs RHP 402 3.6% 0.0% 8.4% 19

7 Jeff Mcneil 29 D +700 WARM 210 0.083 86.4 3.1% 9.1%vs RHP 373 3.7% 0.0% 8.7% 17

vs Jacob Lopez · LHP 1.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Byron Buxton 62 C+ +220 COOL 13 0.297 90.8 9.8% 28.6%vs LHP 402 29.9% 0.0% 17.2% 9

2 Kody Clemens 57 C +400 COOL 23 0.243 92.7 8.2% 26.3%vs LHP 389 18.3% 10.0% 23.9% 28

3 Royce Lewis 48 D +330 · 63 0.171 89.1 8.2% 15.4%vs LHP 396 16.4% 11.1% 10.3% 27

4 Trevor Larnach 45 D — WARM 83 0.166 87.1 6.1% 28.6%vs LHP 399 8.5% 28.6% 17.9% 26

5 Josh Bell 45 D +425 COOL 89 0.174 89.9 7.3% 10.7%vs LHP 404 10.3% 0.0% 9.8% 29

6 Brooks Lee 44 D +450 · 98 0.181 88.1 4.4% 15.4%vs LHP 367 15.1% 11.1% 10.9% 27

7 Victor Caratini 36 D +625 COOL 165 0.126 89.6 6.2% 15.4%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 18

8 Luke Keaschall 31 D +850 WARM 198 0.087 84.3 4.0% 4.8%vs LHP 370 4.6% 0.0% 6.7% 23

9 Austin Martin 30 D +750 COOL 204 0.074 86.9 3.3% 3.9%vs LHP 392 1.8% 0.0% 6.6% 10

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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