TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ SF

Oracle Park is live · 1.20×

LAA @ SF

Oracle Park · 10:15p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.86× Wind 13 mph out 70°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

7:15p

+7 ↑

8:15p

+5 ↑

9:15p

+4 ↑

10:15p

+3 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +9

Best of game Jo Adell conv 18 · vs Webb ⟷ Willy Adames conv 27 · vs Rodriguez → edge: Bryce Eldridge

ATTACK Logan Webb RHP · SF

leak 70

0.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jo Adell +700 D ●●●○○

2 Josh Lowe +850 D ●●○○○

3 Vaughn Grissom +950 D ●●○○○

FADE Grayson Rodriguez RHP · LAA

leak 66

1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · stingy — thin edge

1 Willy Adames +475 C ●●●●○

2 Rafael Devers +330 C ●●●○○

3 Bryce Eldridge +390 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Bryce Eldridge: 12.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 22.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Rodriguez +475 0.206 · 88.1 · 9.4% 33.3% 20.2% F B O C 51

· SF Rafael Devers vs Rodriguez Edge +330 0.226 · 92.2 · 10.3% 22.2% 22.9% F B O C 54

· SF Bryce Eldridge ✶ vs Rodriguez Edge +390 0.204 · 92.5 · 11.1% 22.2% 19.8% F B O C 55

· SF Casey Schmitt vs Rodriguez +425 0.211 · 89.7 · 10.6% 22.2% 18.1% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· LAA Jo Adell COOL vs Webb +700 0.156 · 89.6 · 7.0% 22.2% 13.2% F B O D 38

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Webb Edge +850 0.152 · 89.0 · 7.2% 12.5% 10.9% F B O D 36

· SF Heliot Ramos vs Rodriguez +475 0.187 · 92.4 · 12.0% 11.1% 10.7% F B O D 48

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Webb +950 0.135 · 89.1 · 6.2% 12.5% 7.3% F B O D 32

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Webb +500 0.223 · 90.7 · 10.4% 0.0% 13.5% F B O D 47

· LAA Zach Neto COOL vs Webb +525 0.208 · 89.5 · 8.4% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 43

· LAA Jorge Soler vs Webb +575 0.170 · 88.2 · 8.0% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 38

· SF Drew Gilbert COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +850 0.125 · 85.6 · 4.1% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 30

· LAA Logan O'Hoppe COOL vs Webb +850 0.089 · 86.9 · 7.6% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 28

· LAA Oswald Peraza vs Webb +950 0.133 · 87.3 · 6.6% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 31

· LAA Nolan Schanuel COOL vs Webb Edge +1000 0.114 · 87.3 · 3.4% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 25

· SF Jung Hoo Lee COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +950 0.125 · 87.1 · 4.5% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 30

· SF Luis Arraez COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +950 0.126 · 87.0 · 2.2% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 55.7% ← leak OFF 24.9% BRK 19.4% Overall Score

Long shots · 9 — below the fade line

Mike Trout R

18.1% 10.0% 28.6% 19.1% D 47 +500

104

Zach Neto R

16.2% 6.1% 9.0% 12.6% D 43 +525

150

Jo Adell R

8.6% 5.6% 8.9% 8.3% D 38 +700

151

Jorge Soler R

13.8% 0.0% 10.5% 11.4% D 38 +575

172

Josh Lowe L Edge

12.5% 8.3% 2.8% 9.1% D 36 +850

193

Vaughn Grissom R

9.0% 0.0% 6.5% 6.8% D 32 +950

201

Oswald Peraza R

6.5% 12.0% 7.5% 7.6% D 31 +950

219

Logan O'Hoppe R

10.9% 12.5% 8.8% 10.3% D 28 +850

226

Nolan Schanuel L Edge

2.7% 0.0% 1.5% 1.9% D 25 +1000

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.7% usage) carries Webb's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.6% ← leak BRK 23.4% OFF 23.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

13.2% 6.2% 20.0% 12.8% C 55 +390

Rafael Devers L Edge

12.9% 8.3% 9.6% 11.1% C 54 +330

Casey Schmitt R

9.0% 18.0% 17.4% 12.3% C 52 +425

Willy Adames R

8.7% 10.3% 13.0% 9.5% C 51 +475

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Heliot Ramos R

14.9% 16.7% 17.4% 15.8% D 48 +475

208

Drew Gilbert L Edge

1.9% 2.5% 0.0% 1.7% D 30 +850

209

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

2.7% 2.0% 0.0% 2.2% D 30 +950

225

Luis Arraez L Edge

0.4% 0.0% 2.2% 0.5% D 25 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.6% usage) carries Rodriguez's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Adell Eldridge Devers Schmitt Adames

Legend

attack side — vs Webb fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Willy Adames +475 · 51

Rafael Devers +330 · 54

Bryce Eldridge +390 · 55

Casey Schmitt +425 · 52

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 0.86× Wind 13 mph out 70°F open

↑

13 mph · out

70°F

7:15p · peak

↑

12 mph · out

67°F

8:15p

↑

10 mph · out

65°F

9:15p

↑

9 mph · out

64°F

10:15p

↑

8 mph · out

62°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.20× 70°F, wind 13 mph W (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Logan Webb · RHP 0.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 47 D +500 COOL 71 0.223 90.7 10.4% 26.4%vs RHP 409 17.3% 0.0% 13.5% 20

2 Zach Neto 43 D +525 COOL 104 0.208 89.5 8.4% 20.3%vs RHP 402 17.7% 0.0% 11.8% 25

3 Jo Adell 38 D +700 COOL 150 0.156 89.6 7.0% 11.3%vs RHP 408 12.5% 22.2% 13.2% 24

4 Jorge Soler 38 D +575 WARM 151 0.170 88.2 8.0% 32.4%vs RHP 398 12.8% 0.0% 10.9% 14

5 Josh Lowe 36 D +850 WARM 172 0.152 89.0 7.2% 17.0%vs RHP 396 11.1% 12.5% 10.9% 15

6 Vaughn Grissom 32 D +950 COOL 193 0.135 89.1 6.2% 16.7%vs RHP 390 8.1% 12.5% 7.3% 24

7 Oswald Peraza 31 D +950 WARM 201 0.133 87.3 6.6% 9.1%vs RHP 386 6.8% 0.0% 6.4% 10

8 Logan O'Hoppe 28 D +850 COOL 219 0.089 86.9 7.6% 12.1%vs RHP 408 3.7% 0.0% 6.7% 14

9 Nolan Schanuel 25 D +1000 COOL 226 0.114 87.3 3.4% 10.5%vs RHP 372 7.1% 0.0% 6.4% 28

vs Grayson Rodriguez · RHP 1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Bryce Eldridge ✶ 55 C +390 · 33 0.204 92.5 11.1% 22.9%vs RHP 399 22.2% 22.2% 19.8% 20

2 Rafael Devers 54 C +330 WARM 35 0.226 92.2 10.3% 26.6%vs RHP 401 17.0% 22.2% 22.9% 21

3 Casey Schmitt 52 C +425 · 43 0.211 89.7 10.6% 20.8%vs RHP 396 17.5% 22.2% 18.1% 27

4 Willy Adames 51 C +475 COOL 45 0.206 88.1 9.4% 22.4%vs RHP 388 16.3% 33.3% 20.2% 24

5 Heliot Ramos 48 D +475 WARM 66 0.187 92.4 12.0% 20.6%vs RHP 407 12.3% 11.1% 10.7% 25

6 Drew Gilbert 30 D +850 COOL 208 0.125 85.6 4.1% 13.8%vs RHP 398 3.6% 0.0% 6.8% 26

7 Jung Hoo Lee 30 D +950 COOL 209 0.125 87.1 4.5% 8.0%vs RHP 378 4.3% 0.0% 6.2% 29

8 Luis Arraez 25 D +950 COOL 225 0.126 87.0 2.2% 3.4%vs RHP 367 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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