TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ MIL

Suppressed air · 0.98×

COL @ MIL

American Family Field · 4:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind 8 mph in 75°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-6 ↑

3:10p

-7 ↑

4:10p

-5 ↑

5:10p

-4 ↑

6:10p

-3 ↑

7:10p

conditions build late — the 7:10p window peaks -3

Best of game Jake Bauers conv 26 · vs Sugano ⟷ Hunter Goodman conv 29 · vs Drohan → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Tomoyuki Sugano RHP · COL

leak 91

1.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.71 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jake Bauers +305 C+ ●●●●○

2 Joey Ortiz +750 D ●●●○○

3 Brice Turang +425 C ●●○○○

FADE Shane Drohan LHP · MIL

leak 72

0.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · stingy — thin edge

1 Hunter Goodman +255 C+ ●●●●○

2 Willi Castro +700 D ●●●○○

3 Kyle Karros +575 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: 17.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ vs Drohan Edge +255 0.305 · 91.0 · 12.3% 25.0% 32.5% F B O C+ 66

· MIL Jake Bauers vs Sugano Edge +305 0.226 · 92.5 · 13.3% 22.2% 28.8% F B O C+ 65

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Sugano Edge +425 0.190 · 90.6 · 10.5% 11.1% 14.3% F B O C 53

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Sugano Edge +320 0.178 · 92.6 · 13.5% 0.0% 13.5% F B O C 54

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Sugano +330 0.197 · 92.4 · 13.1% 0.0% 12.3% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· COL Willi Castro vs Drohan Edge +700 0.132 · 88.1 · 8.0% 28.6% 12.4% F B O D 40

· MIL Joey Ortiz HOT vs Sugano +750 0.113 · 87.9 · 7.4% 20.0% 12.9% F B O D 42

· COL Kyle Karros vs Drohan Edge +575 0.166 · 89.7 · 8.6% 12.5% 8.6% F B O D 42

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Drohan +850 0.206 · 85.2 · 7.0% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 42

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Sugano Edge +475 0.144 · 89.0 · 9.4% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 44

· MIL William Contreras vs Sugano +425 0.121 · 90.0 · 9.8% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 44

· COL Tyler Freeman vs Drohan Edge +950 0.074 · 88.0 · 3.6% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 26

· COL Tj Rumfield vs Drohan +700 0.179 · 83.7 · 6.8% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 38

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Drohan Edge +700 0.124 · 87.3 · 7.5% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 35

· COL Edouard Julien COOL vs Drohan — 0.085 · 91.1 · 7.8% 0.0% 5.4% F B O D 33

· COL Troy Johnston vs Drohan — 0.113 · 89.8 · 4.3% 0.0% 5.1% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 61.1% ← leak BRK 34.4% OFF 4.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Hunter Goodman R Edge

20.5% 16.2% 7.4% 17.5% C+ 66 +255

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

107

Jake Mccarthy L

6.2% 1.6% 10.3% 5.6% D 42 +850

113

Kyle Karros R Edge

8.3% 5.2% 15.0% 8.1% D 42 +575

131

Willi Castro S Edge

8.0% 6.8% 6.5% 7.4% D 40 +700

142

Tj Rumfield L

6.3% 2.2% 6.4% 5.0% D 38 +700

176

Ezequiel Tovar R Edge

6.2% 7.8% 4.5% 6.6% D 35 +700

182

Edouard Julien L

5.5% 12.1% 6.5% 7.1% D 33 —

214

Troy Johnston L

2.7% 2.6% 0.0% 2.1% D 29 —

222

Tyler Freeman R Edge

2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% D 26 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.1% usage) carries Drohan's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.6% ← leak BRK 27.8% OFF 20.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Jake Bauers L Edge

14.1% 12.3% 13.8% 13.6% C+ 65 +305

Jackson Chourio R

13.0% 15.9% 4.0% 12.8% C 56 +330

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

17.0% 12.1% 5.0% 14.1% C 54 +320

Brice Turang L Edge

9.8% 9.8% 2.2% 8.5% C 53 +425

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Christian Yelich L Edge

5.2% 10.4% 10.5% 7.1% D 44 +475

101

William Contreras R

8.4% 7.5% 0.0% 7.4% D 44 +425

108

Joey Ortiz R

3.5% 6.6% 0.0% 4.2% D 42 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.6% usage) carries Sugano's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Castro Bauers Ortiz

Legend

attack side — vs Sugano fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Hunter Goodman +255 · 66

Jake Bauers +305 · 65

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 3:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.98× Wind 8 mph in 75°F retractable

-6

↑

8 mph · in

75°F

3:10p

-7

↑

9 mph · in

76°F

4:10p

-5

↑

8 mph · cross

76°F

5:10p

-4

↑

7 mph · cross

75°F

6:10p

-3

↑

7 mph · cross

75°F

7:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.98× 75°F, wind 8 mph SSE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Shane Drohan · LHP 0.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 66 C+ +255 WARM 5 0.305 91.0 12.3% 40.0%vs LHP 411 25.6% 25.0% 32.5% 19

2 Jake Mccarthy 42 D +850 COOL 107 0.206 85.2 7.0% 20.0%vs LHP 419 14.3% 0.0% 10.0% 30

3 Kyle Karros 42 D +575 · 113 0.166 89.7 8.6% 5.3%vs LHP 417 11.2% 12.5% 8.6% 23

4 Willi Castro 40 D +700 WARM 131 0.132 88.1 8.0% 9.5%vs LHP 417 9.1% 28.6% 12.4% 20

5 Tj Rumfield 38 D +700 · 142 0.179 83.7 6.8% 9.1%vs LHP 410 7.1% 0.0% 7.4% 25

6 Ezequiel Tovar 35 D +700 COOL 176 0.124 87.3 7.5% 3.9%vs LHP 410 7.7% 0.0% 6.6% 17

7 Edouard Julien 33 D — COOL 182 0.085 91.1 7.8% 8.8% 400 3.8% 0.0% 5.4% 12

8 Troy Johnston 29 D — WARM 214 0.113 89.8 4.3% 5.3%vs LHP 415 1.3% 0.0% 5.1% 19

9 Tyler Freeman 26 D +950 WARM 222 0.074 88.0 3.6% 11.8%vs LHP 369 2.2% 0.0% 7.6% 17

vs Tomoyuki Sugano · RHP 1.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.71 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 65 C+ +305 WARM 8 0.226 92.5 13.3% 34.6%vs RHP 401 20.5% 22.2% 28.8% 13

2 Jackson Chourio 56 C +330 COOL 26 0.197 92.4 13.1% 18.5%vs RHP 402 16.1% 0.0% 12.3% 19

3 Garrett Mitchell 54 C +320 COOL 34 0.178 92.6 13.5% 26.7%vs RHP 415 8.6% 0.0% 13.5% 23

4 Brice Turang 53 C +425 COOL 37 0.190 90.6 10.5% 25.9%vs RHP 406 11.2% 11.1% 14.3% 23

5 Christian Yelich 44 D +475 · 99 0.144 89.0 9.4% 13.8%vs RHP 402 6.2% 0.0% 9.4% 23

6 William Contreras 44 D +425 WARM 101 0.121 90.0 9.8% 18.6%vs RHP 419 9.8% 0.0% 8.3% 20

7 Joey Ortiz 42 D +750 HOT 108 0.113 87.9 7.4% 12.9%vs RHP 395 6.1% 20.0% 12.9% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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