TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ NYM

Citi Field is live · 1.31×

LAD @ NYM

Citi Field · 7:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 10 mph out 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

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7:10p

+7 ↑

8:10p

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9:10p

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10:10p

+4 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +7

Best of game Max Muncy conv 32 · vs Manaea ⟷ Brett Baty conv 26 · vs Sasaki → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Sean Manaea LHP · NYM

leak 95

1.37 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · leakiest side of this game

1 Max Muncy — C+ ●●●●●

2 Shohei Ohtani +265 C+ ●●●●○

3 Dalton Rushing +525 C ●●●○○

FADE Roki Sasaki RHP · LAD

leak 95

1.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.21 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brett Baty — D ●●●●○

2 Marcus Semien +700 D ●●●○○

3 Francisco Lindor +390 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: 14.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Max Muncy ✶ COOL vs Manaea — 0.249 · 90.1 · 10.7% 33.3% 31.5% F B O C+ 60

· LAD Shohei Ohtani vs Manaea +265 0.241 · 93.4 · 11.9% 20.0% 28.2% F B O C+ 60

· LAD Dalton Rushing COOL vs Manaea +525 0.227 · 89.0 · 9.8% 16.7% 23.6% F B O C 50

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Sasaki +475 0.180 · 90.1 · 13.5% 0.0% 23.8% F B O C 50

· NYM Juan Soto COOL vs Sasaki Edge +290 0.256 · 92.5 · 12.7% 0.0% 19.3% F B O C+ 61

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· NYM Brett Baty vs Sasaki Edge — 0.108 · 89.4 · 9.8% 37.5% 14.0% F B O D 44

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Sasaki +700 0.130 · 86.2 · 9.3% 25.0% 15.5% F B O D 45

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Sasaki Edge +390 0.165 · 92.2 · 10.3% 22.2% 15.9% F B O D 49

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Manaea Edge +475 0.189 · 90.5 · 8.4% 10.0% 16.0% F B O D 46

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Manaea Edge +400 0.191 · 88.9 · 8.3% 10.0% 11.6% F B O D 46

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Manaea +475 0.191 · 90.2 · 9.2% 0.0% 12.5% F B O D 46

· NYM A.J. Ewing COOL vs Sasaki Edge +625 0.152 · — · 8.9% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 40

· LAD Alex Freeland COOL vs Manaea — 0.082 · 88.7 · 6.6% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 32

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Sasaki Edge +575 0.134 · 89.2 · 9.2% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 42

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Sasaki +625 0.116 · 89.9 · 8.7% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 40

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez COOL vs Manaea Edge +400 0.137 · 90.0 · 8.9% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 37

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Manaea +575 0.123 · 88.9 · 6.8% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 64.0% ← leak BRK 32.1% OFF 3.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Max Muncy L

17.1% 14.3% 7.1% 14.0% C+ 60 —

Shohei Ohtani L

21.9% 11.2% 14.6% 17.4% C+ 60 +265

Dalton Rushing L

13.3% 17.9% 3.1% 12.2% C 50 +525

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Mookie Betts R Edge

10.6% 3.8% 6.7% 8.4% D 46 +475

Freddie Freeman L

10.2% 9.5% 10.4% 10.0% D 46 +475

Andy Pages R Edge

8.0% 9.0% 6.7% 8.1% D 46 +400

155

Teoscar Hernandez R Edge

8.3% 14.3% 8.7% 9.6% D 37 +400

175

Kyle Tucker L

8.4% 3.6% 1.6% 5.9% D 35 +575

186

Alex Freeland L

5.1% 10.7% 0.0% 5.3% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.0% usage) carries Manaea's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 43.4% ← leak OFF 35.5% BRK 21.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Juan Soto L Edge

18.2% 4.8% 11.8% 14.2% C+ 61 +290

Francisco Alvarez R

16.0% 17.6% 15.3% 15.9% C 50 +475

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Francisco Lindor S Edge

9.9% 9.1% 5.3% 9.1% D 49 +390

Marcus Semien R

10.4% 9.5% 2.5% 7.6% D 45 +700

Brett Baty L Edge

7.7% 4.8% 13.6% 8.3% D 44 —

112

Carson Benge L Edge

7.0% 6.7% 8.7% 7.4% D 42 +575

127

A.J. Ewing L Edge

8.8% 0.0% 7.7% 7.0% D 40 +625

134

Bo Bichette R

4.7% 0.0% 12.4% 6.7% D 40 +625

Read the columns: the fastball family (43.4% usage) carries Sasaki's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Muncy Ohtani Rushing Betts Lindor Semien Baty

Legend

attack side — vs Manaea fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Max Muncy — · 60

Shohei Ohtani +265 · 60

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 10 mph out 73°F open

↑

10 mph · out

73°F

7:10p · peak

↑

10 mph · out

71°F

8:10p

↑

9 mph · out

70°F

9:10p

↑

8 mph · out

69°F

10:10p

↑

7 mph · out

68°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.31× 73°F, wind 10 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sean Manaea · LHP 1.37 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy ✶ 60 C+ — COOL 16 0.249 90.1 10.7% 28.6%vs LHP 410 19.1% 33.3% 31.5% 20

2 Shohei Ohtani 60 C+ +265 WARM 17 0.241 93.4 11.9% 31.0%vs LHP 405 19.4% 20.0% 28.2% 27

3 Dalton Rushing 50 C +525 COOL 50 0.227 89.0 9.8% 11.1%vs LHP 396 9.5% 16.7% 23.6% 9

4 Mookie Betts 46 D +475 COOL 75 0.189 90.5 8.4% 6.5%vs LHP 389 11.5% 10.0% 16.0% 25

5 Freddie Freeman 46 D +475 COOL 78 0.191 90.2 9.2% 15.4%vs LHP 398 13.1% 0.0% 12.5% 25

6 Andy Pages 46 D +400 COOL 79 0.191 88.9 8.3% 16.7%vs LHP 391 14.0% 10.0% 11.6% 23

7 Teoscar Hernandez 37 D +400 COOL 155 0.137 90.0 8.9% 14.3%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 18

8 Kyle Tucker 35 D +575 WARM 175 0.123 88.9 6.8% 4.3%vs LHP 399 5.2% 0.0% 7.2% 26

9 Alex Freeland 32 D — COOL 186 0.082 88.7 6.6% 12.5%vs LHP 373 2.7% 0.0% 10.3% 1

vs Roki Sasaki · RHP 1.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.21 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto 61 C+ +290 COOL 15 0.256 92.5 12.7% 30.4%vs RHP 401 19.8% 0.0% 19.3% 21

2 Francisco Alvarez 50 C +475 · 49 0.180 90.1 13.5% 27.3%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 23.8% 13

3 Francisco Lindor 49 D +390 · 56 0.165 92.2 10.3% 15.6%vs RHP 399 10.0% 22.2% 15.9% 28

4 Marcus Semien 45 D +700 COOL 86 0.130 86.2 9.3% 17.3%vs RHP 391 11.0% 25.0% 15.5% 10

5 Brett Baty 44 D — WARM 93 0.108 89.4 9.8% 12.0%vs RHP 401 6.3% 37.5% 14.0% 20

6 Carson Benge 42 D +575 COOL 112 0.134 89.2 9.2% 13.3%vs RHP 399 9.2% 0.0% 8.6% 21

7 A.J. Ewing 40 D +625 COOL 127 0.152 — 8.9% 17.2%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 24

8 Bo Bichette 40 D +625 COOL 134 0.116 89.9 8.7% 9.8%vs RHP 385 9.2% 0.0% 8.3% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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