TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ DET

Suppressed air · 0.77×

KC @ DET

Comerica Park · 6:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.86× Wind 8 mph in 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

-11 ↑

6:40p

-10 ↑

7:40p

-9 ↑

8:40p

-9 ↑

9:40p

-8 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks -8

Best of game Jac Caglianone conv 28 · vs Skubal ⟷ Spencer Torkelson conv 26 · vs Way → edge: Dillon Dingler

ATTACK Tarik Skubal LHP · DET

leak 100

1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.48 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jac Caglianone +500 D ●●●●○

2 Lane Thomas +625 D ●●●○○

3 Isaac Collins +750 D ●●●○○

FADE Beck Way RHP

leak 66

1.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.14 · stingy — thin edge

1 Spencer Torkelson +390 C ●●●●○

2 Dillon Dingler +400 C ●●●●○

3 Riley Greene +370 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dillon Dingler: 11.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 22.2% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Way +390 0.217 · 89.8 · 9.9% 30.0% 21.9% F B O C 52

· — Dillon Dingler ✶ COOL vs Way +400 0.262 · 89.7 · 8.9% 22.2% 26.1% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Skubal +500 0.205 · 93.0 · 10.2% 25.0% 30.1% F B O D 48

· — Riley Greene vs Way Edge +370 0.186 · 91.6 · 9.9% 20.0% 22.4% F B O D 48

· KC Lane Thomas vs Skubal Edge +625 0.169 · 89.7 · 7.0% 20.0% 13.3% F B O D 38

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Skubal Edge +750 0.118 · 88.5 · 6.3% 22.2% 10.9% F B O D 31

· KC Carter Jensen vs Skubal +650 0.191 · 90.8 · 8.2% 10.0% 14.6% F B O D 41

· — Colt Keith vs Way Edge — 0.143 · 89.3 · 7.4% 11.1% 9.6% F B O D 37

· — Kerry Carpenter COOL vs Way Edge — 0.216 · 89.8 · 8.3% 0.0% 16.2% F B O D 45

· KC Salvador Perez vs Skubal Edge +525 0.151 · 89.0 · 8.2% 0.0% 13.8% F B O D 32

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Skubal — 0.157 · 90.1 · 6.6% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 32

· — Kevin Mcgonigle vs Way Edge +575 0.141 · 88.0 · 7.3% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 35

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino vs Skubal +950 0.118 · 88.7 · 7.1% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 30

· — Gleyber Torres COOL vs Way +700 0.110 · 85.0 · 7.3% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 33

· — Zach Mckinstry vs Way Edge +950 0.101 · 84.8 · 4.2% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 27

· — Matt Vierling vs Way +750 0.121 · 87.7 · 5.9% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 56.3% ← leak OFF 25.5% BRK 18.2% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jac Caglianone L

15.0% 12.2% 16.9% 15.1% D 48 +500

123

Carter Jensen L

11.5% 7.5% 8.0% 9.5% D 41 +650

149

Lane Thomas R Edge

8.2% 5.6% 2.9% 7.0% D 38 +625

191

Salvador Perez R Edge

13.8% 7.9% 6.1% 10.0% D 32 +525

192

Michael Massey L

8.1% 2.6% 4.3% 6.2% D 32 —

200

Isaac Collins S Edge

6.4% 0.0% 7.7% 5.6% D 31 +750

207

Vinnie Pasquantino L

7.9% 10.7% 3.6% 7.2% D 30 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.3% usage) carries Skubal's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 80.5% ← leak BRK 16.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Dillon Dingler R

12.5% 11.3% 11.4% C 55 +400

Spencer Torkelson R

15.8% 10.9% 14.6% C 52 +390

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Riley Greene L Edge

16.2% 15.3% 14.5% D 48 +370

Kerry Carpenter L Edge

10.0% 11.1% 9.9% D 45 —

159

Colt Keith L Edge

7.6% 20.0% 8.8% D 37 —

173

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

9.6% 7.7% 8.0% D 35 +575

183

Gleyber Torres R

9.0% 6.2% 7.8% D 33 +700

194

Matt Vierling R

8.0% 2.8% 5.2% D 32 +750

221

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

3.4% 2.0% 2.6% D 27 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (80.5% usage) carries Way's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caglianone Thomas Collins Dingler Torkelson Greene

Legend

attack side — vs Skubal fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Spencer Torkelson +390 · 52

Dillon Dingler +400 · 55

Jac Caglianone +500 · 48

Riley Greene +370 · 48

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.86× Wind 8 mph in 76°F open

-11

↑

8 mph · in

76°F

6:40p

-10

↑

8 mph · in

75°F

7:40p

-9

↑

7 mph · in

72°F

8:40p

-9

↑

6 mph · in

69°F

9:40p

-8

↑

4 mph · in

66°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.77× 76°F, wind 8 mph S (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tarik Skubal · LHP 1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.48 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 48 D +500 COOL 64 0.205 93.0 10.2% 29.4%vs LHP 416 13.3% 25.0% 30.1% 26

2 Carter Jensen 41 D +650 WARM 123 0.191 90.8 8.2% 11.8%vs LHP 394 15.2% 10.0% 14.6% 27

3 Lane Thomas 38 D +625 WARM 149 0.169 89.7 7.0% 14.3%vs LHP 416 15.4% 20.0% 13.3% 27

4 Salvador Perez 32 D +525 WARM 191 0.151 89.0 8.2% 16.1%vs LHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 23

5 Michael Massey 32 D — COOL 192 0.157 90.1 6.6% 16.7%vs LHP 398 6.1% 0.0% 12.8% 28

6 Isaac Collins 31 D +750 COOL 200 0.118 88.5 6.3% 10.0%vs LHP 395 7.0% 22.2% 10.9% 24

7 Vinnie Pasquantino 30 D +950 WARM 207 0.118 88.7 7.1% 0.0%vs LHP 395 8.2% 0.0% 8.1% 24

vs Beck Way · RHP 1.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.14 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler ✶ 55 C +400 COOL 32 0.262 89.7 8.9% 31.8%vs RHP 396 20.0% 22.2% 26.1% 24

2 Spencer Torkelson 52 C +390 COOL 42 0.217 89.8 9.9% 26.2%vs RHP 394 17.0% 30.0% 21.9% 24

3 Riley Greene 48 D +370 WARM 65 0.186 91.6 9.9% 19.1%vs RHP 399 12.9% 20.0% 22.4% 22

4 Kerry Carpenter 45 D — COOL 90 0.216 89.8 8.3% 23.6%vs RHP 380 15.0% 0.0% 16.2% 22

5 Colt Keith 37 D — WARM 159 0.143 89.3 7.4% 13.8%vs RHP 389 7.1% 11.1% 9.6% 20

6 Kevin Mcgonigle 35 D +575 · 173 0.141 88.0 7.3% 8.2%vs RHP 399 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 32

7 Gleyber Torres 33 D +700 COOL 183 0.110 85.0 7.3% 10.3%vs RHP 388 6.9% 0.0% 8.0% 5

8 Matt Vierling 32 D +750 · 194 0.121 87.7 5.9% 8.1%vs RHP 377 7.3% 0.0% 6.2% 17

9 Zach Mckinstry 27 D +950 WARM 221 0.101 84.8 4.2% 7.7%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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