TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ BOS

Neutral air · 1.00×

TOR @ BOS

Fenway Park · 7:15p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.91× Wind 8 mph slight_out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

7:15p

+3 ↑

8:15p

+3 ↑

9:15p

+2 ↑

10:15p

+2 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 8:15p at +3

Best of game Willson Contreras conv 30 · vs Yesavage ⟷ Brandon Valenzuela conv 16 · vs Sandoval → edge: Willson Contreras

ATTACK Trey Yesavage RHP · TOR

leak 86

0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.36 · leakiest side of this game

1 Willson Contreras +350 C ●●●●●

2 Wilyer Abreu +400 D ●●●●○

3 Masataka Yoshida +750 D ●●●●○

FADE Patrick Sandoval LHP

leak 18

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.46 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Valenzuela — D ●●○○○

2 Kazuma Okamoto +370 D ●●○○○

3 George Springer +475 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Willson Contreras: 14.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 28.6%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Willson Contreras ✶ vs Yesavage +350 0.265 · 90.7 · 9.3% 28.6% 30.6% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· BOS Wilyer Abreu vs Yesavage Edge +400 0.189 · 90.1 · 8.8% 36.4% 16.2% F B O D 49

· BOS Masataka Yoshida HOT vs Yesavage Edge +750 0.126 · 88.8 · 4.2% 37.5% 9.9% F B O D 36

· — Brandon Valenzuela vs Sandoval Edge — 0.174 · 88.4 · 7.1% 14.3% 16.9% F B O D 40

· BOS Andruw Monasterio vs Yesavage — 0.193 · 89.0 · 7.6% 16.7% 13.8% F B O D 44

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela COOL vs Yesavage +575 0.157 · 86.2 · 5.4% 18.2% 9.1% F B O D 37

· — Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Sandoval Edge +370 0.218 · 91.0 · 9.3% 10.0% 12.7% F B O D 49

· — George Springer vs Sandoval Edge +475 0.159 · 88.7 · 7.0% 12.5% 7.6% F B O D 38

· — Nathan Lukes COOL vs Sandoval — 0.106 · 86.6 · 2.6% 12.5% 7.3% F B O D 28

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Yesavage +750 0.160 · 84.9 · 4.0% 9.1% 10.3% F B O D 34

· — Ernie Clement vs Sandoval Edge +850 0.128 · 85.0 · 4.0% 10.0% 6.4% F B O D 30

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Yesavage Edge +525 0.150 · 89.6 · 8.1% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 39

· BOS Carlos Narvaez vs Yesavage — 0.092 · 91.4 · 6.7% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 31

· — Andres Gimenez vs Sandoval — 0.125 · 86.2 · 5.0% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 28

· — Daulton Varsho HOT vs Sandoval +700 0.139 · 86.1 · 6.5% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.1% ← leak OFF 29.1% BRK 23.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Willson Contreras R

12.1% 22.6% 16.0% 14.3% C 58 +350

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

13.0% 12.3% 12.9% 12.8% D 49 +400

Andruw Monasterio R

8.2% 18.2% 9.3% 9.4% D 44 —

141

Jarren Duran L Edge

13.4% 7.4% 7.7% 10.7% D 39 +525

157

Ceddanne Rafaela R

4.1% 7.5% 4.9% 4.8% D 37 +575

168

Masataka Yoshida L Edge

3.6% 2.9% 0.0% 2.9% D 36 +750

177

Caleb Durbin R

2.8% 3.6% 1.6% 2.6% D 34 +750

196

Carlos Narvaez R

8.1% 0.0% 8.8% 7.3% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.1% usage) carries Yesavage's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 35.5% ← leak OFF 22.7% FB 22.0% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Kazuma Okamoto R Edge

9.2% 15.8% 15.5% 13.8% D 49 +370

129

Brandon Valenzuela S Edge

20.0% 13.0% 3.9% 8.3% D 40 —

147

George Springer R Edge

5.8% 8.7% 8.9% 7.9% D 38 +475

181

Daulton Varsho L

3.1% 6.1% 9.0% 6.9% D 33 +700

205

Ernie Clement R Edge

2.8% 2.5% 2.0% 2.3% D 30 +850

216

Andres Gimenez L

2.6% 6.1% 4.3% 4.0% D 28 —

218

Nathan Lukes L

2.2% 2.9% 0.0% 1.1% D 28 —

Read the columns: the breaking family (35.5% usage) carries Sandoval's damage — BRK is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Contreras Abreu Monasterio Rafaela Yoshida Valenzuela

Legend

attack side — vs Yesavage fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Willson Contreras +350 · 58

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 0.91× Wind 8 mph slight_out 77°F open

↑

8 mph · slight_out

77°F

7:15p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

75°F

8:15p · peak

↑

7 mph · out

72°F

9:15p

↑

6 mph · out

69°F

10:15p

↑

5 mph · out

66°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.00× 77°F, wind 8 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Trey Yesavage · RHP 0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.36 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras ✶ 58 C +350 WARM 20 0.265 90.7 9.3% 35.7%vs RHP 406 21.5% 28.6% 30.6% 14

2 Wilyer Abreu 49 D +400 WARM 55 0.189 90.1 8.8% 13.1%vs RHP 405 14.3% 36.4% 16.2% 30

3 Andruw Monasterio 44 D — WARM 94 0.193 89.0 7.6% 4.0%vs RHP 383 19.2% 16.7% 13.8% 14

4 Jarren Duran 39 D +525 · 141 0.150 89.6 8.1% 29.3%vs RHP 398 12.8% 0.0% 9.2% 30

5 Ceddanne Rafaela 37 D +575 COOL 157 0.157 86.2 5.4% 13.5%vs RHP 372 10.3% 18.2% 9.1% 35

6 Masataka Yoshida 36 D +750 HOT 168 0.126 88.8 4.2% 10.0%vs RHP 367 11.9% 37.5% 9.9% 26

7 Caleb Durbin 34 D +750 COOL 177 0.160 84.9 4.0% 21.9%vs RHP 373 9.6% 9.1% 10.3% 34

8 Carlos Narvaez 31 D — WARM 196 0.092 91.4 6.7% 10.7%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 7

vs Patrick Sandoval · LHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.46 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 49 D +370 COOL 58 0.218 91.0 9.3% 25.0%vs LHP 396 19.3% 10.0% 12.7% 20

2 Brandon Valenzuela 40 D — WARM 129 0.174 88.4 7.1% 25.0%vs LHP 394 11.1% 14.3% 16.9% 9

3 George Springer 38 D +475 · 147 0.159 88.7 7.0% 10.5%vs LHP 391 10.6% 12.5% 7.6% 27

4 Daulton Varsho 33 D +700 HOT 181 0.139 86.1 6.5% 11.1%vs LHP 386 6.9% 0.0% 7.9% 27

5 Ernie Clement 30 D +850 · 205 0.128 85.0 4.0% 11.5%vs LHP 375 8.3% 10.0% 6.4% 36

6 Andres Gimenez 28 D — WARM 216 0.125 86.2 5.0% 20.0%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 19

7 Nathan Lukes 28 D — COOL 218 0.106 86.6 2.6% 10.4% 378 6.2% 12.5% 7.3% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — tonight's full board is on us Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.