TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ TB

Neutral air · 1.02×

SEA @ TB

Tropicana Field · 4:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Dominic Canzone conv 34 · vs Jax ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 48 · vs Gilbert → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Griffin Jax RHP · TB

leak 98

1.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.22 · leakiest side of this game

1 Dominic Canzone +350 C+ ●●●●●

2 Randy Arozarena +500 C ●●●●○

3 Cole Young +750 D ●●●○○

FADE Logan Gilbert RHP · SEA

leak 71

1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero +225 C+ ●●●●●

2 Cedric Mullins +500 D ●●●●○

3 Richie Palacios +950 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 13.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 61.5%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Gilbert +225 0.261 · 93.1 · 11.5% 61.5% 34.0% F B O C+ 69

· SEA Dominic Canzone vs Jax Edge +350 0.280 · 93.0 · 13.1% 30.0% 37.5% F B O C+ 68

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Jax +500 0.173 · 91.3 · 9.3% 25.0% 23.2% F B O C 52

· SEA Luke Raley COOL vs Jax Edge +400 0.227 · 90.5 · 13.4% 0.0% 21.2% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Gilbert Edge +500 0.131 · 88.2 · 6.2% 36.4% 15.4% F B O D 43

· SEA Cole Young vs Jax Edge +750 0.148 · 88.3 · 7.4% 25.0% 19.0% F B O D 47

· TB Richie Palacios vs Gilbert Edge +950 0.088 · 86.0 · 5.8% 22.2% 7.7% F B O D 34

· TB Ben Williamson vs Gilbert — 0.094 · 87.9 · 4.5% 16.7% 8.1% F B O D 33

· TB Nick Fortes vs Gilbert — 0.081 · 86.3 · 4.1% 16.7% 7.8% F B O D 31

· SEA Colt Emerson COOL vs Jax Edge +750 0.198 · 86.5 · 7.8% 0.0% 19.8% F B O D 48

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Jax Edge +280 0.148 · 88.4 · 11.1% 8.3% 11.1% F B O D 48

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Gilbert Edge +425 0.167 · 90.9 · 10.3% 7.7% 11.6% F B O D 47

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Jax Edge +700 0.136 · — · 8.6% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 40

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Gilbert +475 0.168 · 91.0 · 8.3% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 41

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Jax Edge +525 0.103 · 87.6 · 7.1% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 38

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Gilbert Edge — 0.070 · 84.2 · — 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 19

· TB Taylor Walls vs Gilbert Edge +950 0.069 · 85.2 · 5.6% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 42.2% ← leak BRK 35.0% OFF 22.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Dominic Canzone L Edge

18.6% 19.4% 8.3% 15.9% C+ 68 +350

Luke Raley L Edge

19.1% 15.2% 7.4% 16.1% C 58 +400

Randy Arozarena R

8.9% 7.8% 5.1% 7.9% C 52 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Colt Emerson L Edge

6.7% 4.2% 5.9% 5.8% D 48 +750

Cal Raleigh S Edge

11.0% 12.5% 11.8% 11.5% D 48 +280

Cole Young L Edge

6.0% 10.5% 0.0% 6.0% D 47 +750

136

J.P. Crawford L Edge

5.2% 8.5% 12.5% 6.8% D 40 +700

158

Josh Naylor L Edge

4.3% 7.9% 2.1% 4.7% D 38 +525

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.2% usage) carries Jax's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 47.0% ← leak BRK 31.0% OFF 21.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R

16.0% 12.2% 5.7% 13.4% C+ 69 +225

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

10.0% 13.2% 6.2% 10.0% D 47 +425

118

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.7% 0.0% 9.4% 3.8% D 43 +500

130

Yandy Diaz R

5.1% 12.4% 2.8% 7.2% D 41 +475

184

Richie Palacios L Edge

4.5% 2.5% 4.2% 3.9% D 34 +950

190

Ben Williamson R

3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% D 33 —

203

Nick Fortes R

3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% D 31 —

216

Taylor Walls S Edge

4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% D 29 +950

238

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 19 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.0% usage) carries Gilbert's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Canzone Arozarena Young Caminero Mullins Palacios

Legend

attack side — vs Jax fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Junior Caminero +225 · 69

Dominic Canzone +350 · 68

Randy Arozarena +500 · 52

Cole Young +750 · 47

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 4:10p · roof unknown

Park 1.02× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.02× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Griffin Jax · RHP 1.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.22 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 68 C+ +350 · 4 0.280 93.0 13.1% 30.4%vs RHP 400 18.1% 30.0% 37.5% 27

2 Luke Raley 58 C +400 COOL 24 0.227 90.5 13.4% 33.3%vs RHP 385 14.7% 0.0% 21.2% 18

3 Randy Arozarena 52 C +500 WARM 48 0.173 91.3 9.3% 23.1%vs RHP 395 10.8% 25.0% 23.2% 33

4 Colt Emerson 48 D +750 COOL 76 0.198 86.5 7.8% 41.7%vs RHP 369 14.3% 0.0% 19.8% 20

5 Cal Raleigh 48 D +280 WARM 80 0.148 88.4 11.1% 14.0%vs RHP 390 12.7% 8.3% 11.1% 24

6 Cole Young 47 D +750 WARM 89 0.148 88.3 7.4% 15.1%vs RHP 387 11.1% 25.0% 19.0% 29

7 J.P. Crawford 40 D +700 COOL 136 0.136 — 8.6% 26.5%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 27

8 Josh Naylor 38 D +525 COOL 158 0.103 87.6 7.1% 13.2%vs RHP 390 8.1% 0.0% 9.8% 40

vs Logan Gilbert · RHP 1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 69 C+ +225 · 3 0.261 93.1 11.5% 41.5%vs RHP 408 28.1% 61.5% 34.0% 36

2 Jonathan Aranda 47 D +425 · 83 0.167 90.9 10.3% 19.7%vs RHP 391 12.6% 7.7% 11.6% 35

3 Cedric Mullins 43 D +500 · 118 0.131 88.2 6.2% 20.0%vs RHP 393 13.9% 36.4% 15.4% 25

4 Yandy Diaz 41 D +475 WARM 130 0.168 91.0 8.3% 24.3%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 33

5 Richie Palacios 34 D +950 WARM 184 0.088 86.0 5.8% 7.4%vs RHP 396 4.5% 22.2% 7.7% 20

6 Ben Williamson 33 D — WARM 190 0.094 87.9 4.5% 10.0%vs RHP 398 3.2% 16.7% 8.1% 19

7 Nick Fortes 31 D — WARM 203 0.081 86.3 4.1% 10.5%vs RHP 400 2.1% 16.7% 7.8% 20

8 Taylor Walls 29 D +950 WARM 216 0.069 85.2 5.6% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 25

9 Chandler Simpson 19 D — COOL 238 0.070 84.2 — 4.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

14 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.