TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ MIA

Playable air · 1.07×

CLE @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 4:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Rhys Hoskins conv 31 · vs Pérez ⟷ Kyle Stowers conv 29 · vs Bibee → edge: Kyle Stowers

ATTACK Eury Pérez RHP · MIA

leak 98

1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rhys Hoskins — C ●●●●●

2 Brayan Rocchio +700 D ●●○○○

3 Kyle Manzardo +475 C ●○○○○

FADE Tanner Bibee RHP · CLE

leak 96

1.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.83 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Stowers +280 C+ ●●●●○

2 Otto Lopez +700 C ●●●○○

3 Heriberto Hernández +400 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Stowers: 12.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CLE Rhys Hoskins HOT vs Pérez — 0.191 · 88.6 · 12.1% 33.3% 28.8% F B O C 59

· MIA Kyle Stowers ✶ HOT vs Bibee Edge +280 0.226 · 91.8 · 11.4% 25.0% 33.4% F B O C+ 63

· MIA Otto Lopez vs Bibee +700 0.174 · 89.6 · 8.6% 23.1% 14.9% F B O C 52

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Bibee +400 0.231 · 92.2 · 10.7% 0.0% 28.0% F B O C 55

· CLE Kyle Manzardo COOL vs Pérez Edge +475 0.155 · 88.9 · 11.8% 8.3% 10.7% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Pérez Edge +700 0.133 · 86.3 · 5.9% 18.2% 9.6% F B O D 42

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Bibee Edge +750 0.098 · 86.7 · 5.9% 7.7% 9.1% F B O D 40

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Bibee +950 0.135 · 87.5 · 4.0% 9.1% 7.7% F B O D 40

· MIA Liam Hicks COOL vs Bibee Edge +750 0.167 · 85.5 · 6.2% 0.0% 14.1% F B O D 47

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Pérez Edge +500 0.177 · 90.7 · 8.6% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 47

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Pérez Edge +575 0.182 · 88.1 · 7.6% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 47

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Bibee Edge +950 0.126 · 87.0 · 7.0% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 42

· CLE Daniel Schneemann HOT vs Pérez Edge +700 0.131 · 88.0 · 10.2% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 45

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Pérez Edge — 0.055 · 83.2 · 2.3% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.8% ← leak BRK 35.8% OFF 10.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Rhys Hoskins R

8.2% 16.1% 16.7% 10.6% C 59 —

Kyle Manzardo L Edge

12.5% 9.3% 8.8% 11.0% C 51 +475

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Chase Delauter L Edge

8.5% 6.6% 2.1% 6.8% D 47 +500

Travis Bazzana L Edge

6.2% 4.8% 0.0% 5.1% D 47 +575

102

Daniel Schneemann L Edge

12.5% 6.1% 0.0% 8.4% D 45 +700

126

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.2% 4.2% 1.4% 3.0% D 42 +700

224

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 27 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.8% usage) carries Pérez's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 70.7% ← leak OFF 16.0% BRK 13.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Kyle Stowers L Edge

13.7% 3.0% 16.3% 12.3% C+ 63 +280

Heriberto Hernández R

11.8% 8.3% 10.2% 11.0% C 55 +400

Otto Lopez R

10.3% 2.2% 4.3% 7.0% C 52 +700

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Liam Hicks L Edge

3.8% 4.0% 3.2% 3.7% D 47 +750

128

Xavier Edwards S Edge

5.5% 3.6% 3.0% 4.6% D 42 +950

141

Jakob Marsee L Edge

3.0% 8.6% 0.0% 3.3% D 40 +750

143

Javier Sanoja R

0.9% 0.0% 3.0% 1.5% D 40 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (70.7% usage) carries Bibee's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Hoskins Rocchio Stowers Hernández Lopez

Legend

attack side — vs Pérez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Rhys Hoskins — · 59

Kyle Stowers +280 · 63

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 4:10p · roof unknown

Park 1.07× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.07× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Eury Pérez · RHP 1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins 59 C — HOT 19 0.191 88.6 12.1% 25.0%vs RHP 383 13.2% 33.3% 28.8% 11

2 Kyle Manzardo 51 C +475 COOL 61 0.155 88.9 11.8% 22.2%vs RHP 389 10.8% 8.3% 10.7% 22

3 Chase Delauter 47 D +500 WARM 81 0.177 90.7 8.6% 23.1%vs RHP 384 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 40

4 Travis Bazzana 47 D +575 COOL 87 0.182 88.1 7.6% 20.0%vs RHP 395 10.2% 0.0% 12.2% 35

5 Daniel Schneemann 45 D +700 HOT 102 0.131 88.0 10.2% 12.2%vs RHP 398 6.8% 0.0% 7.9% 22

6 Brayan Rocchio 42 D +700 · 126 0.133 86.3 5.9% 12.2%vs RHP 385 7.0% 18.2% 9.6% 34

7 Steven Kwan 27 D — COOL 224 0.055 83.2 2.3% 2.0%vs RHP 381 1.2% 0.0% 6.6% 31

vs Tanner Bibee · RHP 1.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.83 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers ✶ 63 C+ +280 HOT 10 0.226 91.8 11.4% 25.6%vs RHP 396 12.1% 25.0% 33.4% 30

2 Heriberto Hernández 55 C +400 WARM 33 0.231 92.2 10.7% 20.7%vs RHP 414 0.0% 0.0% 28.0% 27

3 Otto Lopez 52 C +700 · 47 0.174 89.6 8.6% 13.0%vs RHP 402 8.7% 23.1% 14.9% 46

4 Liam Hicks 47 D +750 COOL 85 0.167 85.5 6.2% 22.2%vs RHP 376 15.8% 0.0% 14.1% 41

5 Xavier Edwards 42 D +950 COOL 128 0.126 87.0 7.0% 3.6%vs RHP 396 5.5% 0.0% 8.4% 42

6 Jakob Marsee 40 D +750 · 141 0.098 86.7 5.9% 8.2%vs RHP 379 6.7% 7.7% 9.1% 33

7 Javier Sanoja 40 D +950 WARM 143 0.135 87.5 4.0% 4.8%vs RHP 385 5.3% 9.1% 7.7% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

11 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.