TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ CIN

Neutral air · 1.03×

CHC @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 7:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.03× Wind 4 mph cross 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

7:10p

+2 ↑

8:10p

+2 ↑

9:10p

+3 ↑

10:10p

+3 ↑

11:10p

conditions build late — the 10:10p window peaks +3

Best of game Seiya Suzuki conv 31 · vs Lodolo ⟷ Sal Stewart conv 28 · vs Assad → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Nick Lodolo LHP · CIN

leak 67

1.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.60 · leakiest side of this game

1 Seiya Suzuki +265 C ●●●●●

2 Pete Crow-Armstrong +320 C+ ●●●●○

3 Dansby Swanson +330 C ●●●○○

FADE Javier Assad RHP · CHC

leak 42

1.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.52 · stingy — thin edge

1 Sal Stewart +320 C+ ●●●●○

2 Elly De La Cruz +330 C+ ●●●○○

3 Spencer Steer +400 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: 10.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Seiya Suzuki COOL vs Lodolo Edge +265 0.201 · 89.1 · 9.0% 33.3% 29.0% F B O C 58

· CIN Sal Stewart vs Assad +320 0.219 · 90.7 · 10.4% 30.8% 24.4% F B O C+ 60

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ COOL vs Lodolo +320 0.242 · 90.4 · 9.6% 25.0% 28.9% F B O C+ 64

· CIN Elly De La Cruz vs Assad Edge +330 0.219 · 94.5 · 10.6% 23.1% 20.7% F B O C+ 60

· CHC Dansby Swanson vs Lodolo Edge +330 0.198 · 90.1 · 8.2% 16.7% 25.4% F B O C 55

· CHC Michael Busch COOL vs Lodolo +400 0.156 · 88.1 · 9.4% 16.7% 12.6% F B O C 51

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Lodolo Edge +350 0.217 · 89.7 · 10.3% 8.3% 15.0% F B O C 58

· CIN Spencer Steer COOL vs Assad +400 0.188 · 89.6 · 9.7% 10.0% 11.9% F B O C 52

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Assad Edge +280 0.238 · 88.8 · 8.5% 0.0% 19.3% F B O C 51

· CIN Nathaniel Lowe COOL vs Assad Edge — 0.201 · 88.5 · 8.9% 0.0% 16.6% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Lodolo Edge +390 0.121 · 88.3 · 7.4% 12.5% 11.3% F B O D 43

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Assad +320 0.155 · 87.4 · 7.7% 0.0% 17.3% F B O D 43

· CHC Alex Bregman COOL vs Lodolo Edge +390 0.131 · 87.9 · 6.0% 8.3% 8.5% F B O D 41

· CIN Tj Friedl vs Assad Edge +750 0.098 · 87.8 · 4.7% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 36

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Assad +400 0.136 · 91.2 · 8.8% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 44

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Lodolo Edge +750 0.097 · 85.8 · 2.8% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.6% ← leak BRK 24.7% OFF 23.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Pete Crow-Armstrong L

9.3% 12.9% 11.5% 10.8% C+ 64 +320

Seiya Suzuki R Edge

10.2% 9.9% 0.0% 9.4% C 58 +265

Ian Happ S Edge

15.2% 20.8% 3.6% 13.4% C 58 +350

Dansby Swanson R Edge

8.4% 4.2% 14.8% 7.8% C 55 +330

Michael Busch L

12.7% 7.0% 3.2% 10.3% C 51 +400

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

116

Carson Kelly R Edge

8.4% 3.9% 6.2% 6.9% D 43 +390

134

Alex Bregman R Edge

4.5% 6.4% 6.9% 5.2% D 41 +390

191

Nico Hoerner R Edge

1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% D 33 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.6% usage) carries Lodolo's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 74.3% ← leak BRK 18.9% OFF 6.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Sal Stewart R

16.1% 10.0% 12.5% 13.8% C+ 60 +320

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

20.5% 11.6% 4.8% 15.3% C+ 60 +330

Spencer Steer R

12.5% 11.1% 14.3% 12.3% C 52 +400

Jj Bleday L Edge

9.5% 10.8% 6.5% 9.0% C 51 +280

Nathaniel Lowe L Edge

8.7% 10.0% 13.3% 9.9% C 51 —

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

109

Tyler Stephenson R

14.0% 4.4% 7.1% 10.7% D 44 +400

113

Eugenio Suarez R

8.9% 3.1% 7.7% 7.5% D 43 +320

169

Tj Friedl L Edge

3.0% 4.3% 0.0% 2.8% D 36 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (74.3% usage) carries Assad's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Swanson Busch Stewart Cruz

Legend

attack side — vs Lodolo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Seiya Suzuki +265 · 58

Sal Stewart +320 · 60

Pete Crow-Armstrong +320 · 64

Elly De La Cruz +330 · 60

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.03× Wind 4 mph cross 74°F open

↑

4 mph · slight_out

77°F

7:10p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

76°F

8:10p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

75°F

9:10p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

74°F

10:10p · peak

↑

4 mph · slight_out

73°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.03× 74°F, wind 4 mph WSW (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nick Lodolo · LHP 1.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.60 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 64 C+ +320 COOL 9 0.242 90.4 9.6% 25.0%vs LHP 393 20.2% 25.0% 28.9% 27

2 Seiya Suzuki 58 C +265 COOL 22 0.201 89.1 9.0% 35.7%vs LHP 408 15.1% 33.3% 29.0% 38

3 Ian Happ 58 C +350 COOL 25 0.217 89.7 10.3% 16.0%vs LHP 402 19.4% 8.3% 15.0% 27

4 Dansby Swanson 55 C +330 WARM 36 0.198 90.1 8.2% 23.8%vs LHP 403 14.1% 16.7% 25.4% 34

5 Michael Busch 51 C +400 COOL 60 0.156 88.1 9.4% 11.5%vs LHP 403 12.6% 16.7% 12.6% 30

6 Carson Kelly 43 D +390 COOL 116 0.121 88.3 7.4% 15.0%vs LHP 417 6.3% 12.5% 11.3% 16

7 Alex Bregman 41 D +390 COOL 134 0.131 87.9 6.0% 11.1%vs LHP 398 6.5% 8.3% 8.5% 40

8 Nico Hoerner 33 D +750 WARM 191 0.097 85.8 2.8% 9.1%vs LHP 383 4.3% 0.0% 8.2% 37

vs Javier Assad · RHP 1.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.52 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart 60 C+ +320 · 17 0.219 90.7 10.4% 22.0%vs RHP 389 12.8% 30.8% 24.4% 39

2 Elly De La Cruz 60 C+ +330 WARM 18 0.219 94.5 10.6% 16.7%vs RHP 395 16.7% 23.1% 20.7% 31

3 Spencer Steer 52 C +400 COOL 49 0.188 89.6 9.7% 18.4%vs RHP 393 12.9% 10.0% 11.9% 25

4 Jj Bleday 51 C +280 COOL 53 0.238 88.8 8.5% 26.3%vs RHP 386 0.0% 0.0% 19.3% 34

5 Nathaniel Lowe 51 C — COOL 59 0.201 88.5 8.9% 28.1%vs RHP 398 13.7% 0.0% 16.6% 8

6 Tyler Stephenson 44 D +400 WARM 109 0.136 91.2 8.8% 15.8%vs RHP 384 6.9% 0.0% 8.3% 19

7 Eugenio Suarez 43 D +320 WARM 113 0.155 87.4 7.7% 22.2%vs RHP 381 0.0% 0.0% 17.3% 18

8 Tj Friedl 36 D +750 WARM 169 0.098 87.8 4.7% 9.1%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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