TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ BAL

Camden Yards is live · 1.10×

KC @ BAL

Camden Yards · 7:05p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.10× Wind 1 mph cross 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

7:05p

+1 ↑

8:05p

+0 ↑

9:05p

-1 ↑

10:05p

-1 ↑

11:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at +2

Best of game Carter Jensen conv 22 · vs Bradish ⟷ Samuel Basallo conv 28 · vs Cameron → edge: Samuel Basallo

ATTACK Kyle Bradish RHP · BAL

leak 80

1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · leakiest side of this game

1 Carter Jensen +400 C ●●●○○

2 Lane Thomas +750 D ●●○○○

3 Isaac Collins +750 D ●●○○○

FADE Noah Cameron LHP · KC

leak 56

1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · stingy — thin edge

1 Samuel Basallo +475 C ●●●●○

2 Pete Alonso +330 C+ ●●●○○

3 Leody Taveras +850 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Samuel Basallo: 12.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Samuel Basallo ✶ vs Cameron +475 0.201 · 91.3 · 10.6% 33.3% 23.6% F B O C 59

· KC Carter Jensen vs Bradish Edge +400 0.188 · 90.7 · 8.6% 20.0% 23.3% F B O C 55

· BAL Pete Alonso COOL vs Cameron Edge +330 0.216 · 93.7 · 10.7% 16.7% 20.9% F B O C+ 61

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Cameron Edge +330 0.186 · 92.0 · 9.5% 0.0% 26.9% F B O C 54

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Bradish Edge +350 0.196 · 93.5 · 11.2% 9.1% 15.6% F B O C 57

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Cameron +425 0.183 · 89.6 · 8.1% 0.0% 17.2% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· KC Lane Thomas HOT vs Bradish +750 0.155 · 88.9 · 7.4% 16.7% 15.7% F B O D 49

· KC Isaac Collins vs Bradish Edge +750 0.106 · 88.5 · 6.8% 20.0% 7.8% F B O D 42

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs Cameron Edge +850 0.127 · 87.3 · 6.3% 16.7% 10.4% F B O D 41

· BAL Blaze Alexander COOL vs Cameron Edge +625 0.113 · 92.3 · 7.8% 9.1% 7.6% F B O D 43

· BAL Adley Rutschman COOL vs Cameron Edge +500 0.184 · 89.4 · 8.3% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 48

· KC Salvador Perez vs Bradish +500 0.152 · 89.1 · 8.8% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 44

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Cameron — 0.150 · 86.6 · 10.3% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 49

· KC Michael Massey vs Bradish Edge +575 0.166 · 90.6 · 7.6% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 46

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino vs Bradish +500 0.123 · 88.5 · 7.6% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 43

· BAL Taylor Ward vs Cameron Edge +500 0.096 · 89.4 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.4% BRK 48.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jac Caglianone L Edge

15.2% 17.1% 15.5% C 57 +350

Carter Jensen L Edge

10.0% 7.8% 9.0% C 55 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Lane Thomas R

8.7% 0.0% 6.6% D 49 +750

Michael Massey L Edge

9.3% 4.9% 7.1% D 46 +575

107

Salvador Perez R

13.4% 6.3% 10.3% D 44 +500

117

Vinnie Pasquantino

9.0% 3.6% 7.5% D 43 +500

129

Isaac Collins S Edge

6.3% 8.0% 5.6% D 42 +750

Read the columns: no single family leads Bradish's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.4% ← leak BRK 26.5% OFF 21.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Pete Alonso R Edge

16.2% 6.4% 15.6% 13.3% C+ 61 +330

Samuel Basallo L

15.6% 8.9% 9.1% 12.1% C 59 +475

Coby Mayo R Edge

9.5% 9.8% 10.5% 9.7% C 54 +330

Gunnar Henderson L

7.8% 6.8% 7.7% 7.5% C 51 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Colton Cowser L

14.7% 16.7% 2.8% 11.9% D 49 —

Adley Rutschman S Edge

11.7% 2.1% 4.4% 7.9% D 48 +500

119

Blaze Alexander R Edge

7.1% 5.9% 6.2% 6.7% D 43 +625

133

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.7% 10.0% 0.0% 4.8% D 41 +850

150

Taylor Ward R Edge

8.9% 0.0% 2.9% 5.7% D 39 +500

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.4% usage) carries Cameron's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Jensen Thomas Collins Alonso Basallo Mayo Taveras

Legend

attack side — vs Bradish fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Samuel Basallo +475 · 59

Carter Jensen +400 · 55

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.10× Wind 1 mph cross 71°F open

↑

7 mph · cross

79°F

7:05p · peak

↑

6 mph · cross

77°F

8:05p

↑

6 mph · cross

75°F

9:05p

-1

↑

6 mph · cross

74°F

10:05p

-1

↑

5 mph · in

73°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.10× 71°F, wind 1 mph N (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kyle Bradish · RHP 1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 57 C +350 COOL 28 0.196 93.5 11.2% 26.5%vs RHP 418 13.3% 9.1% 15.6% 32

2 Carter Jensen 55 C +400 WARM 35 0.188 90.7 8.6% 19.3%vs RHP 393 15.7% 20.0% 23.3% 22

3 Lane Thomas 49 D +750 HOT 70 0.155 88.9 7.4% 16.7%vs RHP 411 14.3% 16.7% 15.7% 31

4 Michael Massey 46 D +575 · 95 0.166 90.6 7.6% 10.5%vs RHP 398 6.9% 0.0% 10.8% 22

5 Salvador Perez 44 D +500 WARM 107 0.152 89.1 8.8% 15.7%vs RHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 29

6 Vinnie Pasquantino 43 D +500 · 117 0.123 88.5 7.6% 13.3%vs RHP 395 9.2% 0.0% 10.7% 0

7 Isaac Collins 42 D +750 · 129 0.106 88.5 6.8% 5.4%vs RHP 390 6.4% 20.0% 7.8% 23

vs Noah Cameron · LHP 1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 61 C+ +330 COOL 15 0.216 93.7 10.7% 10.7%vs LHP 400 19.4% 16.7% 20.9% 26

2 Samuel Basallo ✶ 59 C +475 · 21 0.201 91.3 10.6% 14.3%vs LHP 399 16.4% 33.3% 23.6% 23

3 Coby Mayo 54 C +330 · 41 0.186 92.0 9.5% 40.0%vs LHP 405 13.9% 0.0% 26.9% 10

4 Gunnar Henderson 51 C +425 COOL 58 0.183 89.6 8.1% 43.8%vs LHP 388 16.5% 0.0% 17.2% 39

5 Colton Cowser 49 D — WARM 72 0.150 86.6 10.3% 20.0%vs LHP 417 15.2% 0.0% 11.2% 11

6 Adley Rutschman 48 D +500 COOL 79 0.184 89.4 8.3% 13.0%vs LHP 400 9.6% 0.0% 11.8% 29

7 Blaze Alexander 43 D +625 COOL 119 0.113 92.3 7.8% 6.7%vs LHP 392 6.6% 9.1% 7.6% 29

8 Leody Taveras 41 D +850 COOL 133 0.127 87.3 6.3% 11.1%vs LHP 410 1.6% 16.7% 10.4% 16

9 Taylor Ward 39 D +500 · 150 0.096 89.4 7.2% 10.0%vs LHP 393 5.3% 0.0% 8.1% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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