TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ MIN

Neutral air · 1.03×

LAA @ MIN

Target Field · 2:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.03× Wind 3 mph cross 69°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

1:10p

-2 ↑

2:10p

-2 ↑

3:10p

-2 ↑

4:10p

+0 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 5:10p window peaks +0

Best of game Kody Clemens conv 32 · vs Johnson ⟷ Mike Trout conv 26 · vs Ryan → edge: Kody Clemens

ATTACK Ryan Johnson RHP · LAA

leak 90

2.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.10 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kody Clemens +305 C+ ●●●●●

2 Josh Bell +390 C ●●●●○

3 Royce Lewis +390 C ●●●○○

FADE Joe Ryan RHP · MIN

leak 5

0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.35 · stingy — thin edge

1 Mike Trout +320 C+ ●●●●○

2 Zach Neto +475 C ●●●○○

3 Josh Lowe +500 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kody Clemens: 13.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIN Kody Clemens ✶ vs Johnson Edge +305 0.254 · 92.8 · 10.5% 33.3% 31.3% F B O C+ 66

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Ryan +320 0.235 · 91.2 · 15.6% 33.3% 18.5% F B O C+ 62

· MIN Josh Bell HOT vs Johnson Edge +390 0.174 · 89.9 · 9.7% 27.3% 21.9% F B O C 55

· LAA Zach Neto vs Ryan +475 0.223 · 89.9 · 12.6% 16.7% 17.0% F B O C 57

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Johnson +390 0.166 · 89.0 · 10.3% 16.7% 16.0% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Ryan Edge +500 0.141 · 88.8 · 10.0% 16.7% 15.0% F B O D 45

· MIN Luke Keaschall COOL vs Johnson +750 0.100 · 84.2 · 5.2% 18.2% 12.0% F B O D 39

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Johnson Edge +500 0.153 · 87.3 · 7.9% 9.1% 9.9% F B O D 46

· LAA Jo Adell vs Ryan +500 0.151 · 90.0 · 10.1% 8.3% 9.3% F B O D 45

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Ryan — 0.130 · 89.5 · 8.3% 10.0% 7.1% F B O D 40

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Johnson Edge +525 0.180 · 88.1 · 5.8% 0.0% 13.1% F B O D 47

· LAA Jorge Soler COOL vs Ryan +475 0.194 · 88.1 · 11.5% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 49

· MIN Victor Caratini vs Johnson Edge — 0.138 · 89.6 · 8.2% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 42

· LAA Nolan Schanuel COOL vs Ryan Edge +750 0.122 · 87.1 · 5.1% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 34

· MIN Austin Martin vs Johnson — 0.077 · 86.9 · 4.3% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 34

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Ryan +700 0.139 · 87.2 · 9.7% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 40

· LAA Logan O'Hoppe vs Ryan +525 0.100 · 87.1 · 11.6% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 55.9% ← leak BRK 32.7% OFF 11.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Mike Trout R

19.4% 31.2% 10.5% 20.5% C+ 62 +320

Zach Neto R

16.9% 9.7% 4.0% 13.2% C 57 +475

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jorge Soler R

14.4% 11.5% 0.0% 12.1% D 49 +475

Josh Lowe L Edge

12.3% 2.6% 4.8% 8.1% D 45 +500

Jo Adell R

8.6% 7.1% 6.5% 7.9% D 45 +500

142

Oswald Peraza R

6.7% 7.8% 13.0% 7.8% D 40 +700

143

Vaughn Grissom R

6.9% 7.0% 0.0% 5.9% D 40 —

149

Logan O'Hoppe R

11.5% 9.3% 14.3% 11.0% D 39 +525

179

Nolan Schanuel L Edge

2.9% 1.8% 0.0% 2.2% D 34 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.9% usage) carries Ryan's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 59.4% ← leak OFF 25.1% BRK 15.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Kody Clemens L Edge

10.5% 12.5% 20.0% 13.2% C+ 66 +305

Josh Bell S Edge

10.7% 6.8% 15.5% 10.9% C 55 +390

Royce Lewis R

14.4% 5.0% 10.6% 12.2% C 54 +390

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.6% 1.4% 1.2% 4.2% D 47 +525

Trevor Larnach L Edge

9.5% 3.3% 6.8% 8.0% D 46 +500

121

Victor Caratini S Edge

7.0% 7.4% 16.0% 8.3% D 42 —

145

Luke Keaschall R

3.9% 0.0% 3.9% 3.5% D 39 +750

180

Austin Martin R

3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.4% usage) carries Johnson's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Trout Neto Lowe Clemens Bell Lewis Keaschall

Legend

attack side — vs Johnson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Kody Clemens +305 · 66

Mike Trout +320 · 62

Josh Bell +390 · 55

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 1.03× Wind 3 mph cross 69°F open

-2

↑

7 mph · cross

82°F

1:10p

-2

↑

8 mph · cross

84°F

2:10p

-2

↑

8 mph · cross

85°F

3:10p

-2

↑

9 mph · cross

87°F

4:10p

↑

8 mph · cross

88°F

5:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.03× 69°F, wind 3 mph S (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Joe Ryan · RHP 0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.35 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 62 C+ +320 COOL 13 0.235 91.2 15.6% 28.0%vs RHP 409 19.2% 33.3% 18.5% 6

2 Zach Neto 57 C +475 · 27 0.223 89.9 12.6% 21.2%vs RHP 402 19.3% 16.7% 17.0% 31

3 Jorge Soler 49 D +475 COOL 69 0.194 88.1 11.5% 34.4%vs RHP 398 14.1% 0.0% 13.0% 22

4 Josh Lowe 45 D +500 WARM 97 0.141 88.8 10.0% 17.1%vs RHP 395 10.7% 16.7% 15.0% 26

5 Jo Adell 45 D +500 · 99 0.151 90.0 10.1% 10.4%vs RHP 409 11.4% 8.3% 9.3% 33

6 Oswald Peraza 40 D +700 COOL 142 0.139 87.2 9.7% 10.0%vs RHP 386 7.4% 0.0% 7.0% 14

7 Vaughn Grissom 40 D — COOL 143 0.130 89.5 8.3% 14.8%vs RHP 396 10.0% 10.0% 7.1% 16

8 Logan O'Hoppe 39 D +525 · 149 0.100 87.1 11.6% 13.3%vs RHP 408 3.9% 0.0% 6.9% 22

9 Nolan Schanuel 34 D +750 COOL 179 0.122 87.1 5.1% 11.8%vs RHP 372 7.9% 0.0% 8.4% 29

vs Ryan Johnson · RHP 2.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.10 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens ✶ 66 C+ +305 WARM 5 0.254 92.8 10.5% 22.9%vs RHP 390 19.6% 33.3% 31.3% 33

2 Josh Bell 55 C +390 HOT 37 0.174 89.9 9.7% 21.7%vs RHP 404 11.6% 27.3% 21.9% 32

3 Royce Lewis 54 C +390 · 42 0.166 89.0 10.3% 18.9%vs RHP 393 17.0% 16.7% 16.0% 30

4 Brooks Lee 47 D +525 WARM 84 0.180 88.1 5.8% 19.6%vs RHP 367 15.3% 0.0% 13.1% 35

5 Trevor Larnach 46 D +500 WARM 94 0.153 87.3 7.9% 10.9%vs RHP 398 6.6% 9.1% 9.9% 29

6 Victor Caratini 42 D — · 121 0.138 89.6 8.2% 18.8%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 22

7 Luke Keaschall 39 D +750 COOL 145 0.100 84.2 5.2% 8.2%vs RHP 370 5.1% 18.2% 12.0% 27

8 Austin Martin 34 D — WARM 180 0.077 86.9 4.3% 4.2%vs RHP 392 2.0% 0.0% 7.5% 12

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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